Working Papers
2016
July 8, 2016
Fixed Base Year vs. Chain Linking in National Accounts: Experience of Sub-Saharan African Countries
Description: There are two approaches for producing volume estimates of GDP, fixed base year and annual chaining. While most advanced economies have adopted the chain-linked approach in the past twenty years, some African countries are hesitant to do so, in part because of the computation and data requirements, and resource constraints. What difference does this make for the accuracy of the growth rates? From detailed data provided by three Sub-Saharan African countries we run simulations and conclude that the differences of GDP growth using the two approaches are small and do not behave in the consistent way found in advanced countries. We also show that weak deflation techniques and overly aggregated classifications used to derive volume measures can lead to large distortions. We conclude that improved deflation techniques and detailed classification should be addressed before adopting chain linking.
July 6, 2016
Inflation, Financial Developments, and Wealth Distribution
Description: We find that from 1995 to 2002 in China, the dispersion of wealth decreased, the moneywealth ratio increased for all wealth levels and the aggregate money-output ratio increased. We develop a two-asset dynamic general equilibrium model in which households face a portfolio adjustment cost and a borrowing constraint. We find that financial development lowers the dispersion of wealth by reducing the precautionary motive of households. In addition, tight monetary policies increase the value of money and thus increase the moneywealth ratio for all wealth levels and the aggregate money-output ratio.
July 6, 2016
An Analysis of OPEC’s Strategic Actions, US Shale Growth and the 2014 Oil Price Crash
Description: In November 2014, OPEC announced a new strategy geared towards improving its market share. Oil-market analysts interpreted this as an attempt to squeeze higher-cost producers including US shale oil out of the market. Over the next year, crude oil prices crashed, with large repercussions for the global economy. We present a simple equilibrium model that explains the fundamental market factors that can rationalize such a "regime switch" by OPEC. These include: (i) the growth of US shale oil production; (ii) the slowdown of global oil demand; (iii) reduced cohesiveness of the OPEC cartel; (iv) production ramp-ups in other non-OPEC countries. We show that these qualitative predictions are broadly consistent with oil market developments during 2014-15. The model is calibrated to oil market data; it predicts accommodation up to 2014 and a market-share strategy thereafter, and explains large oil-price swings as well as realistically high levels of OPEC output.
July 6, 2016
A Network Model of Multilaterally Equilibrium Exchange Rates
Description: This paper proposes a network model of multilaterally equilibrium exchange rates. The model introduces a topological component into the exchange rate analysis, consistently taking into account simultaneous higher-order interactions among all currencies. The paper defines the currency demand indicator. On its base, it derives a multilateral exchange rate network, finds its dynamically stationary position, and identifies the multilaterally equilibrium levels of bilateral exchanges rates. Potentially, the model can be developed further to calculate the deviations of the observed bilateral exchange rates from their multilaterally equilibrium levels, which can be interpreted as their over- or undervaluation. For illustration, the model is applied to daily 1995-2016 exchange rates among 130 currencies sourced from the Thomson Reuters Datastream.
July 6, 2016
Outside the Band: Depreciation and Inflation Dynamics in Chile
Description: This paper examines inflation dynamics in Chile during the last peso depreciation episode 2013-15. The evidence is for substantial pass-through effects to inflation, given the large and persistent depreciation movement. Widespread indexation practices in non-traded goods markets are found to amplify the inflation response to the depreciation, while the role of wage indexation is less relevant to the inflation dynamics. Overall, inflation would have remained within the central bank’s target band absent the peso depreciation. The analysis also shows that tightening monetary policy in response to a depreciation shock can be costly in terms of output: the response of activity to rates is found to be strong, while the transmission from activity to inflation is found to be weak. Simulations under uncertainty about the extent of the pass-through also suggest that monetary policy can play a countercyclical role in the face of depreciation shocks at a moderate inflationary cost, as long as inflation expectations remain anchored.
July 5, 2016
A National Wealth Approach to Banking Crises and Financial Stability
Description: The paper explores a different, supplementary way to assess and manage a particular type of banking crises, those arising from a rise of nonperforming loans to the corporate sector. It relies on a “national wealth approach,” focusing on the distribution of net wealth among economic sectors and its interaction with developments in the banking system. It identifies avenues for policy response optimization, based on an integrated macrofinancial analytical framework, both for the prevention and the resolution of these types of economic events.
July 5, 2016
U.S. Corporate Income Tax Reform and its Spillovers
Description: This paper examines the main distortions of the U.S. corporate income tax (CIT), focusing on its international aspects, and proposes a set of reforms to alleviate them. A bold reform to replace the CIT with a corporate-level rent tax could induce efficiency-enhancing reform of the international tax system. Since fundamental reform is politically difficult, this paper also proposes an incremental reform that would reduce tax expenditures, reduce the CIT rate to 25-28 percent, and impose a minimum rent tax on foreign earnings. Finally, this paper analyzes empirically the likely impact of the incremental on corporate revenues outside the U.S.: Though a U.S. rate cut would likely lower revenues elsewhere, implementation of a strong minimum tax could more than offset that effect for most countries with effective tax rates above 15 percent.
July 5, 2016
Did the Global Financial Crisis Break the U.S. Phillips Curve?
Description: Inflation dynamics, as well as its interaction with unemployment, have been puzzling since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). In this empirical paper, we use multivariate, possibly time-varying, time-series models and show that changes in shocks are a more salient feature of the data than changes in coefficients. Hence, the GFC did not break the Phillips curve. By estimating variations of a regime-switching model, we show that allowing for regime switching solely in coefficients of the policy rule would maximize the fit. Additionally, using a data-rich reduced-form model we compute conditional forecast scenarios. We show that financial and external variables have the highest forecasting power for inflation and unemployment, post-GFC.
July 5, 2016
U.S. Dollar Dynamics: How Important Are Policy Divergence and FX Risk Premiums?
Description: We investigate the drivers of dynamics of major U.S. FX bilaterals. We first construct a novel measure of FX risk premiums using Consensus exchange rate forecasts. We then use VAR analysis to show that (i) risk premium shocks play a key role in driving dynamics of the major U.S. FX bilaterals; (ii) longer-term interest differentials also matter, especially for the Canadian $ and the Euro; (iii) oil price shocks play a particularly important role for the Canadian $ (an oil exporter); and (iv) risk appetite shocks (e.g., VIX shocks) generally lead to U.S. dollar appreciation. The importance of risk premium and longer-term interest differential shocks fit well with a simple theoretical model and are supported by recent event studies.
July 5, 2016
What is Keeping U.S. Core Inflation Low: Insights from a Bottom-Up Approach
Description: Over the past two decades, U.S. core PCE goods and services inflation have evolved differently. Against the backdrop of global concerns of low inflation, we use this trend as motivation to develop a bottom-up model of U.S. inflation. We find that domestic forces play a larger role relative to foreign factors in influencing core services inflation, while foreign factors predominantly drive core goods price changes. When comparing forecasting performance, we find that both the aggregate Phillips curve and the bottom up approach give low root mean square errors. The latter, however, is more informative in tracing the effects of shocks and understanding the exact channels through which they affect aggregate inflation. Using scenario analysis—and given a relatively low sensitivity of core inflation to changes in slack, both at the aggregate Phillips curve and sub-components levels—we find that global pressures will likely keep core PCE inflation below 2 percent for the foreseeable future unless the dollar starts to depreciate markedly and the unemployment rate goes well below the natural rate. These results support the accommodative stance of monetary policy pursued thus far and, going forward, underscore the need for proceeding cautiously and very gradually in raising the federal funds rate.