Policy Papers
2021
March 5, 2021
Fifteenth General Review of Quotas—Quota Formula and Realigning Shares
Description: This paper provides background for an initial discussion under the Fifteenth General Review of Quotas (15th Review) in line with the work plan agreed by the Executive Board. It discusses issues related to further reforms of the quota formula and realigning quota shares, based on updated quota data through 2015. A companion paper, to be discussed separately, will address issues related to the size of the Fund and mix of quota and borrowed resources. Both these papers seek to facilitate initial discussions on some of the key issues for the 15th Review. No proposals are made at this stage, recognizing that further deliberations will be needed before the issues under discussion can begin to be narrowed down.
March 5, 2021
Adequacy of Fund Resources—Further Considerations
Description: This paper is part of the workplan on the 15th General Review of Quotas (15th Review). The paper provides a two-pillar framework for assessing the adequacy of Fund resources, building on the staff paper discussed by the Board in March 2016. The second pillar of the framework is qualitative in nature. The paper also provides information to support a discussion on the mix of Fund resources.
March 5, 2021
Fifteenth General Review of Quotas—Further Considerations
Description: The paper revisits the two-pillar framework for assessing the adequacy of Fund resources. Responding to Directors suggestions, the quantitative pillar is updated to include alternative assumptions and to provide a longer-term perspective on likely resource needs. While quantitative estimates are generally somewhat lower after factoring in the alternative assumptions, these reductions are more than outweighed when the analysis is extended through the middle of the next decade, recognizing that the outcome of the 15th Review will likely determine permanent Fund resources through at least the middle of the next decade. The updated qualitative pillar analysis highlights reforms since the global financial crisis and discusses uncertainties in the global environment. It also provides an assessment of the general impact of the various qualitative considerations. Taken together, the two pillars continue to make a case for at least maintaining existing Fund resources. Against this background, the simulations in the paper cover three illustrative sizes for quota increases (50, 75, and 100 percent), centered on broadly maintaining Fund resources, assuming the New Arrangements to Borrow (NAB) is maintained at its current level and Bilateral Borrowing Agreements (BBAs) expire.
March 5, 2021
2019 Quota Data Update
Description: The paper presents summary results for the updated data set, with country-by-country details provided in Appendix I. In terms of broad country groups, the results of the data update are broadly consistent with trends observed in previous updates. The aggregate share of Emerging Market and Developing Countries (EMDCs) increased by 0.3 pp, to 50.0 percent, following a small decline in the EMDCs’ share recorded in the 2018 data update. The rising EMDC share reflected again foremost an increase for Asia. Most advanced economies recorded a small decrease in their calculated quota share using the current quota formula.
March 5, 2021
2020 Quota Data Update
Description: This paper presents the annual update of the quota database and extends the database by one year through 2018. The paper provides an overview of the data and of the methodology and covers the quota formula variables and calculated quota shares based on the current quota formula.
March 5, 2021
Adequacy of Fund Resources – Preliminary Considerations
Description: This paper provides background for initial considerations on the appropriate size of the Fund’s overall lending capacity over the medium term. The paper reviews developments in the demand for Fund resources during the global crisis. The paper also argues that the global economy is changing in fundamental ways, with implications for the size of the Fund. Against this background, the analysis suggests that the current overall lending capacity of the Fund should be seen as a minimum. Additional resources would be needed if the Fund were to introduce changes to its lending framework. While the financing structure of the Fund should be largely quota-based, staff sees a strong case for continuing to backstop quota resources with a standing borrowing facility. Maintaining the Fund’s current overall lending capacity would require swift action by the membership.
March 5, 2021
Fifteenth General Review of Quotas— Additional Considerations and Data Update
Description: This paper provides background for a further round of discussions on the Fifteenth General Review of Quotas (hereafter 15th Review). The paper builds on work presented in previous staff papers and Directors’ views expressed in three meetings of the Committee of the Whole in September 2017 and February 2018. No proposals are presented at this stage, pending further Board guidance on possible approaches to narrowing the current differences of views.
February 18, 2021
Review of the Adequacy of the Fund’s Precautionary Balances
Description: On October 30, 2020, the IMF’s Executive Board reviewed the adequacy of the Fund’s precautionary balances. Precautionary balances, comprising the Fund’s general and special reserves and the Special Contingent Account (SCA-1), are one element of the IMF’s multi-layered framework for managing financial risks. These balances provide a buffer to protect the Fund against potential losses, resulting from credit, income, and other financial risks. This review of the adequacy of the Fund’s precautionary balances took place on the standard two-year cycle, although it was delayed by a few months to allow for an assessment of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Fund financial risks. In conducting the review, the Executive Board applied the rules-based framework agreed in 2010.
February 8, 2021
Supplement to the Guidance Note for Surveillance Under Article IV Consultations
Description: This note provides updated guidance to country teams on bilateral surveillance in the context of Article IV consultations in light of the COVID crisis. This guidance impacts the focus, format and presentation of staff reports while keeping intact the substance of all existing Board-endorsed requirements. Similarly, all aspects of the comprehensive 2015 Guidance Note for Surveillance Under Article IV Consultations also remain in effect, except as modified below. This supplement aims to strengthen the focus of Fund surveillance on the fallout from the crisis and related challenges flexibly to adapt to a rapidly evolving context and will remain in effect, in the absence of further communication, until comprehensive new guidance is issued following the completion of the upcoming Comprehensive Surveillance Review.
February 3, 2021
Review of The Debt Sustainability Framework For Market Access Countries
Description: A careful review has revealed significant scope to modernize and better align the MAC DSA with its objectives and the IMF’s lending framework. This note proposes replacing the current framework with a new methodology based on risk assessments at three different horizons. Extensive testing has shown that the proposed framework has much better predictive accuracy than the current one. In addition to predicting sovereign stress, the framework can be used to derive statements about debt stabilization under current policies and about debt sustainability.