Country Reports

March 30, 2015

Nigeria: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation

Description: This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that inflation in Nigeria has remained in single digits for two years, and the banking sector, which has a strong capital base, is expanding credit. The trade surplus has been declining since the second quarter of 2013 on lower oil exports and continued strong growth of imports, and gross international reserves have been falling. The general government fiscal deficit and public debt have been kept low. The Executive Directors have commended authorities for progress in promoting Nigeria’s economic diversification and for their macroeconomic response to collapsing export prices.

March 30, 2015

Nigeria: Selected Issues Paper

Description: This Selected Issues paper discusses promotion of economic transformation in Nigeria. Nigeria’s long-term potential is keyed on promoting economic transformation. This implies taking stock of initial conditions, assessing long-term financing capacity, and evaluating the policies and reforms to be implemented to meet the long term vision. The recent fall in prices has highlighted the challenging but compelling need to address remaining development challenges. This paper discusses some of these development imperatives including current regional disparities and ongoing policy initiatives, capacity to finance infrastructure needs, promoting domestic saving through developing financial inclusion, and the opportunity cost of quasi-fiscal activities.

March 27, 2015

Romania: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation

Description: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Romania’s economic recovery has become more entrenched and broad based, with private consumption picking up on the back of rising real disposable income. At the same time, inflation has decelerated substantially over the past two years and a negative output gap persists. The banking sector has considerably reduced nonperforming loans, though they remain high, and private sector credit has fallen since 2013. Growth is projected to remain robust in a low inflation environment. Raising growth prospects over the longer term requires continuity of sustainable macroeconomic policies, underpinned by stronger fiscal and regulatory institutions, and a more stable and predictable business environment, which is crucial for investor confidence.

Notes: Also Available in Romanian

March 27, 2015

Romania: Selected Issues

Description: This Selected Issues paper discusses benefits of boosting quality public infrastructure spending in Romania. Since the financial crisis, fiscal and current account deficits have been tackled, but the infrastructure deficit has widened. Quality public investment in infrastructure can boost domestic demand and potential GDP growth, particularly in low growth environments. The IMF staff simulations employing the European Union’s production function methodology show significant growth benefits from higher quality infrastructure spending. As a result of higher investment, real GDP would increase by about 1 percent initially with the impact peaking in 2025.

Notes: Also Available in Romanian

March 26, 2015

Uruguay: Selected Issues

Description: This Selected Issues paper reviews Uruguay’s experience with inclusive growth over the last two decades, and identifies challenges and policy options to promote greater equality going forward. Uruguay has a long history of high living standards comparable to many developed countries, and has made further progress in improving social conditions since 2005 on the back of strong economic growth and active social policies. Looking ahead, preserving macroeconomic stability is essential to sustain these gains. For the longer term, improving access to quality education will be the key to enhance social mobility.

March 26, 2015

Uruguay: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation

Description: This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Uruguayan economy continues to decelerate gradually. Real GDP growth is estimated to have softened to a still robust 3.25 percent in 2014 from 4.5 percent in 2013, mostly reflecting the moderation in domestic demand growth amid a less favorable external environment. Weak economic conditions abroad have continued to weigh on Uruguay’s current account, particularly on the services side. Economic activity is projected to decelerate further but remain solid. The pass-through of lower global oil prices to end-user prices will be gradual, as part of the windfall from lower oil prices will initially be used to shore up the operating balance of the state-owned petroleum enterprise.

March 25, 2015

Ireland: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation

Description: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Ireland enjoyed strong growth in 2014, at about 5 percent year over year, led by exports and investment. Solid job creation has brought the unemployment rate down to 10.5 percent, from a peak of 15 percent three years ago. These positive economic developments drove higher than expected growth in revenues, helping bring the fiscal deficit down to an estimated 3.9 percent of GDP in 2014 despite some spending overruns. Looking to 2015, Ireland’s growth is expected to remain robust, at about 3.5 percent, bolstered by the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing. Consumption is beginning to support activity, aided by the impact of falling energy prices on real incomes.

March 25, 2015

Ireland: Selected Issues

Description: This Selected Issues paper outlines some of the technical issues associated with implementation of European Union (EU) fiscal rules in Ireland. Ireland is expected to exit the Excessive Deficit Procedure in 2015. From a peak of 13.3 percent of GDP in 2010, the overall deficit was brought down to an estimated 3.9 percent of GDP in 2014. In this paper, EU fiscal rule framework is discussed in more detail. Technical challenges in estimating potential output in Ireland, and some options to address these challenges are also outlined.

March 24, 2015

Sierra Leone: Second Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Financing Assurances Review, and Requests for Augmentation of Access Under the Extended Credit Facility and Debt Relief Under the Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust

Description: This paper discusses Sierra Leone’s Second Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Financing Assurances Review. Economic output is set to contract by some 13 percent in 2015, comprising a decline in non-iron-ore activity of some 2 percent, and a 47 percent slump in iron-ore output as the dominant mining operator is not expected to resume activity until mid-year at the earliest. Policy discussions focused on generating fiscal space to tackle the Ebola emergency and contend with the effects of the slump in iron-ore production and prices. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for significant additional financing from the IMF.

March 19, 2015

Indonesia: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation

Description: This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that sound macroeconomic management and exchange rate flexibility have bolstered policy credibility and external resiliency in Indonesia over the past 18 months. In the face of Federal Reserve tapering and headwinds posed by slumping commodity prices, policy and reserve buffers have been strengthened through a clearer policy framework and better policy coordination. Notwithstanding commodity sector developments and global risk factors, the near-term outlook is broadly positive. Looking ahead, the main challenge for Indonesia is to chart a course to higher, more inclusive growth, while preserving macrofinancial stability and further strengthening the external position.