Country Reports

July 14, 2015

Cross-Country Report on Inflation: Selected Issues

Description: This Selected Issues paper examines the causes and drivers of low inflation in European inflation targeting countries outside the euro area, focusing on the Czech Republic, Poland, Sweden, and Switzerland. It estimates the effects on inflation from the output gap and external factors, including oil price changes, nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) fluctuations, and euro area inflation spillovers. It is observed that external factors have been significant drivers of low inflation recently, though their contributions to inflation and the channels through which they operate vary across countries. Policy responses and options are also discussed, taking into account country-specific circumstances.

July 14, 2015

Greece: An Update of IMF Staff’s Preliminary Public Debt Sustainability Analysis

Description: This paper presents an update to IMF staff’s Preliminary Public Debt Sustainability Analysis on Greece. Greece’s public debt has become highly unsustainable. This is owing to the easing of policies during 2014, with the recent deterioration in the domestic macroeconomic and financial environment because of the closure of the banking system adding significantly to the adverse dynamics. The financing need through end-2018 is now estimated at euro 85 billion, and debt is expected to peak at close to 200 percent of GDP in the next two years, provided that there is an early agreement on a program.

Notes: Read the the Preliminary Draft Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA). See also: Nine Key Questions on Greece.

July 10, 2015

United Republic of Tanzania: Second Review Under the Policy Support Instrument

Description: This paper discusses Tanzania’s Second Review Under the Policy Support Instrument (PSI). Tanzania’s macroeconomic performance remains strong. Program performance since the last review has been uneven. All end-2014 assessment criteria were met, though the indicative target on tax revenue collection was missed. Good progress was made on structural benchmarks. Shortfalls in domestic revenue continued in early 2015, and delays were incurred in mobilizing external financing and adjusting expenditure in the context of the mid-year budget review. The IMF staff recommends completion of the second PSI review and modification of assessment criteria on net international reserves and net domestic financing for end-June 2015.

July 10, 2015

France: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation

Description: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that a solid economic recovery in France is under way. The economy is expected to expand by 1.2 percent in 2015, supported by an accommodative external environment. Sharply lower oil prices, a depreciated euro, low interest rates on account of quantitative easing, and the recovery in other euro area countries should underpin household consumption, lift export growth, and eventually foster a rebound in investment. The fiscal strategy, set out in the current multi-year budget law and the 2015 Stability Program, aims to bring the headline deficit below 3 percent of GDP by 2017, with a gradual adjustment based exclusively on spending containment.

July 10, 2015

France: Selected Issues

Description: This Selected Issues paper analyzes expenditure reforms in France. After decades of rising public spending and successive tax increases, the medium-term fiscal consolidation path described in the 2015 Stability Program is now fully expenditure based. However, recent efforts of nominal spending containment have not delivered the intended savings in the context of low growth and inflation. A thorough review of the efficiency of public spending could help prepare more fundamental reforms of spending programs and processes to underpin a lasting reduction in expenditures, which reached a record high of 57.2 percent of GDP in 2014.

July 10, 2015

South Africa: Technical Assistance Report-Revenue Administration Gap Analysis Program—The Value-Added Tax Gap

Description: This Technical Assistance Report discusses the results of applying the value-added tax (VAT) gap estimation methodology of the Revenue Administration Gap Analysis Program (RA-GAP) to South Africa for the period 2007–12. It is found that the compliance gap is estimated to be between 5 percent and 10 percent of potential VAT revenues during the period 2007–12, and peaking in 2008 and 2009. The estimated compliance gap for VAT in South Africa between 2007 and 2012 is hump-shaped. The results also reveal that the level of the VAT policy gap in South Africa is low by international standards, owing to its simple VAT policy structure.

July 9, 2015

Bosnia and Herzegovina: Financial System Stability Assessment

Description: This paper discusses key findings of the Financial System Stability Assessment on Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). Economic and financial activity in BiH remains stuck in a low gear since the global financial crisis, reflecting weak external demand, tighter funding conditions, and deep-seated structural issues. Aggregate solvency and liquidity indicators appear broadly sound, but significant pockets of vulnerability exist. The banking system is more than 80 percent foreign-owned banks. The average regulatory capital adequacy ratio exceeded 16 percent as of end 2014. Decisive and timely actions to deal with weak banks are critical for preserving financial stability.

July 9, 2015

Bosnia and Herzegovina: Financial System Stability Assessment

Description: This paper discusses key findings of the Financial System Stability Assessment on Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). The financial system in BiH is still dealing with the aftershocks of the global financial crisis as well as deep-seated vulnerabilities. A high system-wide nonperforming loan ratio reflects the impact of the crisis, low growth since then, and a history of lax lending policies. Bank governance problems, weak supervision powers, and related-party loans are obstacles to addressing asset quality problems and re-establishing bank profitability. Banking and insurance oversight have improved since the 2006 Financial Sector Assessment Program, but supervisors’ corrective and enforcement powers are weak and identifying ultimate beneficial owners and related-party lending is problematic.

July 8, 2015

Mexico: Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC)—Data Module Volume I

Description: This paper discusses key findings of the Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes—Data Module for Mexico. Despite the progress made and envisaged, there is scope for further improvement. The IMF staff mission identified the need for greater consistency in data recording across agencies and for regular inter-institution reconciliation exercises to resolve data discrepancies. One source of discrepancies is fixed capital formation of state and local governments, which—given the weight that these subnational units have in the aggregate—may well contribute to the significant divergence between measures of investment in the government finance statistics and in the national accounts. Accuracy and reliability of national accounts data are generally adequate and have improved since 2010.

July 7, 2015

United States: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation

Description: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that the U.S. economy’s momentum in the first quarter of 2015 was sapped by unfavorable weather, a sharp contraction in oil sector investment, and the West Coast port strike. But the underpinnings for a continued expansion remain in place. A solid labor market, accommodative financial conditions, and cheaper oil should support a more dynamic path for the remainder of the year. Despite this, the weaker outturn in the first few months of 2015 will unavoidably pull down 2015 growth. Despite important policy uncertainties, the near-term fiscal outlook has improved, and the federal government deficit is likely to move modestly lower in the current fiscal year.