United States: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation
IMF Staff Country Reports, July 7, 2015
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- United States: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation
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Bibliographic details
- Published: July 7, 2015
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513539423.002
Summary and near-term assessment
- The U.S. economy’s momentum in the first quarter of 2015 was sapped by unfavorable weather, a sharp contraction in oil sector investment, and the West Coast port strike.
- Underpinnings for a continued expansion remain in place:
- A solid labor market
- Accommodative financial conditions
- Cheaper oil
- These factors should support a more dynamic path for the remainder of the year.
- The weaker outturn in the first few months of 2015 will unavoidably pull down 2015 growth.
- Despite important policy uncertainties, the near-term fiscal outlook has improved, and the federal government deficit is likely to move modestly lower in the current fiscal year.
Key findings and themes
- Growth shock drivers:
- Unfavorable weather (first quarter of 2015)
- Sharp contraction in oil sector investment
- West Coast port strike
- Growth supports:
- Solid labor market conditions
- Accommodative financial conditions
- Lower oil prices
- Fiscal stance:
- Near-term fiscal outlook improved
- Federal government deficit likely to move modestly lower in the current fiscal year
Subjects and keywords (as listed)
- Subjects: Banking, Central bank policy rate, Financial sector policy and analysis, Financial sector risk, Financial services, Inflation, Labor, Output gap, Prices, Production
- Keywords: article IV discussion, Central bank policy rate, core PCE inflation, CR, Financial sector risk, Global, housing data, Inflation, ISCR, liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident, Output gap, personal income growth, rate, staff appraisal