Country Reports
2015
August 14, 2015
Spain: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper presents a preliminary assessment of recent labor market reforms in Spain, where the 2012 labor market reforms are making a difference. Wage moderation is contributing to a visible recovery in headline employment growth, and the reforms have made the labor market more resilient to shocks. Some evidence exists that the contribution of temporary contracts to employment growth has started to decrease. However, the reliance on temporary workers remains strong overall, and further structural reforms will be required to reduce the still very high level of long-term, structural unemployment.
August 14, 2015
Spain: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation - Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Spain
Description: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Spain’s recovery has gathered speed, but unemployment remains very high. Growth has picked up and is expected at 3.1 percent in 2015 and 2.5 percent in 2016, well above the euro area average. Strong policy implementation has supported the return of confidence, and significant external tailwinds are helping the rebound. However, deep structural problems limit Spain’s growth potential going forward, and vulnerabilities remain. The high structural unemployment and pervasive labor market duality, and the lack of economies of scale of Spain’s many small firms hold back medium-term growth. Public and private debt levels are still high and are likely to keep weighing on consumption and investment.
August 7, 2015
Samoa: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Banking Supervision and Regulation-Technical Note
Description: This Technical Note discusses the key findings and recommendations of assessment of Banking Supervision and Regulation for Samoa. Little progress has been achieved toward implementing the recommendations of the 2007 Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision assessment. Initiatives by the Central Bank of Samoa to deal with weaknesses identified in supervision and regulation of domestic banks in 2007 were disrupted by a series of natural disasters and the use of limited supervisory resources on other priorities. Progress was achieved, however, in issues related to Anti-Money Laundering and Combating Financing of Terrorism, with Samoa upgraded to a “normal reporting" regime by the Asia Pacific Group on Money Laundering in 2014, from its previous status of "enhanced reporting."
August 6, 2015
Portugal: Second Post-Program Monitoring
Description: This paper discusses key findings of the Second Post-Program Monitoring Discussions with Portugal. Portugal’s economic recovery remains on track in 2015, boosted by rising exports and consumption, together with a recent upturn in investment. Real GDP expanded by 1.5 percent (year-over-year) in the first quarter, and is projected to increase 1.6 percent for the full year. A more forceful approach to corporate debt work-outs is needed to accelerate the structural transformation of the economy. The authorities should be proactive in putting in place a coordinated approach to debt work-outs to restructure the debts of viable firms, and move forward with liquidation of those that are no longer viable.
August 6, 2015
Samoa: Financial Sector Assessment Program - Banking Resolution, and Crisis Prevention and Management Frameworks—Technical Note
Description: This Technical Note discusses key findings of the assessment of Banking Resolution, and Crisis Prevention and Management Frameworks for Samoa. It is recommended that the current regulatory framework to deal with financial institutions (FIs) should be reformed. The Central Bank of Samoa (CBS) has issued “Prudential Statements" containing some prudential rules, ratios, and limits applicable to FIs, but there are no general standards for their enforcement, which is done on a purely discretional case-by-case basis. The powers from the Central Bank Act are not strong enough to enable the CBS to take enforcement actions. A fully amended legal and regulatory banking resolution framework is needed for the CBS to be able to deal effectively with serious banking problems.
August 6, 2015
Morocco: Ex Post Evaluation of Exceptional Access Under the 2012 Precautionary and Liquidity Line Arrangement
Description: This paper discusses Morocco’s Ex Post Evaluation of Exceptional Access Under the 2012 Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL) Arrangement. The Ex Post Evaluation confirms that the 2012–14 PLL arrangement was consistent with the PLL qualification standards and requirements under the exceptional access policy at the time of the PLL arrangement request in August 2012 and at the subsequent reviews. The authorities’ policies helped maintain macroeconomic stability and reduce fiscal and external vulnerabilities, despite unfavorable external developments. It is observed that despite the significant macroeconomic achievements under the 2012–14 PLL arrangement, a number of policy challenges remained to be fully addressed.
August 6, 2015
Chile: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper examines the effect of lower copper prices on Chile’s growth at various time horizons. This paper discusses the copper outlook and suggests that the fall in copper prices is likely to have a persistent (although not permanent) effect on GDP growth. It argues that copper prices are unlikely to return to historical highs in the near future. The paper also provides theoretical and empirical evidence supporting the view that long-term GDP growth will not be affected, but the transition toward a lower GDP level can take up to a decade.
August 6, 2015
Chile: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation
Description: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that the GDP growth of Chile has remained lackluster over the past year. The main force behind the economic slowdown in 2014 has been the sharp fall in private investment, mainly the consequence of the end of the mining boom, but also reflecting the uncertainty and adjustment costs associated with the structural reform agenda. The IMF staff expects growth to increase modestly to 2.5 percent in 2015, mainly thanks to strong fiscal support. Private domestic demand should strengthen somewhat in 2016, primarily as very simulative monetary conditions and a gradual recovery of business confidence sustain private investment.
August 5, 2015
Jordan: Seventh and Final Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Proposal for Post-Program Monitoring
Description: This paper discusses Jordan’s Seventh and Final Review Under the Stand-by Arrangement and Proposal for Post-program Monitoring. Jordan’s program has helped the economy weather different shocks. Performance has been good in the run-up to the final review. Although growth has been affected by regional tensions, the current account deficit is narrowing, foreign reserves remain at an adequate level, and inflation is low. All end-April performance criteria were met with comfortable margins, and policies are on track to meet their 2015 targets while fiscal structural reform is moving forward. The IMF staff supports the completion of the seventh review and the related purchase.
August 4, 2015
Ukraine: First Review Under the Extended Arrangement—Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ukraine
Description: This paper discusses Ukraine’s First Review Under the Extended Arrangement. The authorities have made a strong start in implementing the program. All performance criteria (PCs) for end-March 2015 and, based on preliminary information, all PCs for end-June were met. Eight benchmarks were completed, albeit four of them with a delay and two were converted into prior actions for this review. Discussions with creditors have made progress toward a debt operation that would restore fiscal sustainability. In view of the authorities’ performance under the program, their policy commitments for the period ahead, and progress toward a debt operation in line with its stated objectives, the IMF staff recommends the completion of the first review.