Spain: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation - Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Spain
IMF Staff Country Reports, August 14, 2015
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- Published: August 14, 2015
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513560069.002
Growth and short-term outlook
- Growth picked up and is expected at 3.1 percent in 2015 and 2.5 percent in 2016, well above the euro area average.
- Strong policy implementation has supported the return of confidence.
- Significant external tailwinds are helping the rebound.
Labor market and employment
- Spain’s recovery has gathered speed, but unemployment remains very high.
- Key structural labor-market problems identified:
- High structural unemployment.
- Pervasive labor market duality.
- These labor-market issues hold back medium-term growth and wage dynamics.
Firm structure and productivity constraints
- The lack of economies of scale of Spain’s many small firms constrains medium-term growth potential.
Debt and balance-sheet vulnerabilities
- Public and private debt levels are still high.
- High debt is likely to keep weighing on consumption and investment.
Overall assessment and risks
- While near-term growth and confidence have improved, deep structural problems limit Spain’s growth potential going forward and leave vulnerabilities that could undermine the recovery.
IMF Staff Country Report No. 2015/232, 64 pages; Volume 2015; Issue 232; DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513560069.002; ISBN: 9781513560069; ISSN: 1934-7685