Country Reports
2016
October 4, 2016
The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia
Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that Ethiopia’s macroeconomic outturn during 2015/16 has been adversely affected by a severe drought and the weak global environment. As a result, output growth is estimated to have slowed down to 6.5 percent in 2015/16. The slowdown was mitigated by effective and timely policy responses to the drought, and buoyant industrial and services sectors. Over the medium-term, growth is projected to recover to within the 7.3–7.5 percent range, reflecting the growth-oriented reforms envisaged in the recently adopted second Growth and Transformation Plan. Public investment is projected to moderate, while private investment is projected to increase gradually.
October 4, 2016
Tuvalu: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Tuvalu
Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that the macroeconomic outlook for Tuvalu is stable. Real GDP growth in 2015 is estimated at 2.6 percent and is projected to rise to 4 percent in 2016 owing to several large infrastructure projects and recovery spending following Cyclone Pam. Inflation remained steady in 2015 at 3.2 percent. The fiscal position is expected to turn into a small deficit in 2016 and is projected to remain in deficit over the medium term. Risks to the outlook relate to the effects of climate change, volatility in fishing revenues, and volatile global financial conditions, which could affect distributions to the budget from the Tuvalu Trust Fund.
October 4, 2016
Sudan: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Sudan
Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that Sudan is facing significant domestic and international constraints and large macroeconomic imbalances despite efforts made toward macroeconomic stability and growth. Although good harvests boosted growth to close to 5 percent in 2015, external imbalances widened owing to low commodity export prices, expansionary policies, and insufficient exchange rate adjustment. The terms-of-trade shock widened the current account deficit to 6 percent of GDP in 2015. The budget deficit widened to 1.9 percent of GDP owing to shortfalls in oil revenue. Inflation, which had been contained to 12.6 percent at end-2015, rose to 16.5 percent in July 2016. The outlook is subject to significant downside risks.
Notes: Also Available in Arabic
October 3, 2016
Ukraine: Second Review Under the Extended Fund Facility and Requests for Waivers of Non-Observance of Performance Criteria, Rephasing of Access and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ukraine
Description: This paper discusses Ukraine’s Second Review Under the Extended Fund Facility and Requests for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria (PCs), Rephasing of Access and Financing Assurances Review. The economy of Ukraine has stabilized and is showing signs of a gradual recovery. Following a severe economic crisis, activity is picking up, inflation has receded quickly, and confidence is improving. International reserves have doubled to more than US$14 billion. Continued policy implementation is needed to achieve program objectives, given the still significant challenges lying ahead. The IMF staff supports the completion of the second review, and the authorities’ requests for waivers of the missed PCs, rephasing of access, and financing assurances review.
October 3, 2016
Ukraine: Ex Post Evaluation of Exceptional Access Under the 2014 Stand-By Arrangement
Description: This paper discusses Ukraine’s Ex Post Evaluation of Exceptional Access Under the 2014 Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) program. The SBA program faced substantial geopolitical risks from the outset, but rightly focused on immediate and medium-term objectives. Important steps were taken under the program. The authorities made effective strides early on, including in longstanding difficult areas, such as raising energy tariffs and largely maintaining a flexible exchange rate, albeit with occasional sizeable interventions. Banking sector diagnostics were conducted for the largest banks and a large number of them were resolved in an orderly manner. Naftogaz restructuring also began under the SBA, as did anticorruption and governance reform.
October 3, 2016
Ghana: Third Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Waiver for Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Modifications of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Excutive Director for Ghana
Description: This paper discusses Ghana’s Third Review Under the Extended Credit Facility arrangement and Request for Waiver for Nonobservance of Performance Criteria (PCs), and Modifications of PCs. Program implementation in Ghana remains broadly satisfactory, but the economic outlook remains difficult and fiscal challenges are mounting. The growth outlook for 2016 and 2017 has weakened, mainly owing to disruptions in oil production, and non-oil economic activity is expected to remain subdued owing to continued fiscal consolidation and tight monetary policy. There was broad agreement with the authorities on the need to sustain a tight monetary stance given the still high inflation. The IMF staff recommends completion of the third review.
September 29, 2016
Ireland: Financial Sector Assessment Program: Technical Note-Stress Testing the Banking System
Description: This Technical Note discusses the results of the stress testing carried out to examine the banking system in Ireland. These tests examined the resilience of the Irish banking system to solvency, liquidity, and contagion risks. The results revealed several sources of vulnerability, although these remain manageable at the macro level. The global liquidity stress tests reveal that some banks in the system would be exposed to liquidity risks in the event of large deposit withdrawals, under a more severe scenario than the Basel III Liquidity Coverage Ratio metrics. By contrast, additional counterbalancing capacity would allow banks to cope with net outflows in every maturity bucket.
September 29, 2016
Ireland: Financial Sector Assessment Program: Technical Note-Update on the Assessment of Implementation of the IOSCO Objectives and Principles of Securities Regulation
Description: This Technical Note discusses the findings and recommendations in the Financial Sector Assessment Program for implementation of the International Organization of Securities Commissions Objectives and Principles of Securities Regulation in Ireland. Since 2013, the regulation of securities and associated institutions and markets has witnessed considerable innovation in Ireland. As in other supervisory areas, the central bank has dedicated more staff to the supervision of securities and taken a more proactive approach. The central bank has also developed innovative ongoing systemic analysis. Certain issues raised in the 2013 assessment have not been addressed, in large part because any action would require amendments to primary legislation or EU structures or other changes.
September 29, 2016
Ireland: Financial Sector Assessment Program: Technical Note-Macroprudential Policy Framework
Description: This Technical Note discusses the findings and recommendations made in the Financial Sector Assessment Program for Ireland in the area of the macroprudential policy framework. The current institutional arrangement in Ireland is appropriate for effective macroprudential policy and in line with IMF guidance. The Central Bank of Ireland’s analysis of systemic vulnerabilities is sophisticated and timely. The central bank has been introducing a range of macroprudential instruments to contain a buildup of systemic risk in the financial system. Ireland’s boom-bust experience amply demonstrates the need for forward-looking action to head off incipient financial problems.
September 29, 2016
Ireland: Financial Sector Assessment Program: Technical Note-Nonbank Sector Stability Analyses
Description: This Technical Note discusses the findings and recommendations made in the Financial Sector Assessment Program for Ireland in the areas of nonbank sector stability. Both nonparametric and parametric methods suggest that the residential real estate market in Ireland is close to or moderately below its equilibrium level. Two standard metrics of price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios show that following a protracted period of overvaluation prior to the crisis and a correction afterward, the market has been close to its equilibrium level in recent quarters. Households have deleveraged, but are still highly indebted. The stability analysis results also suggest that vulnerabilities among nonfinancial firms have moderated in recent years.