Country Reports
2017
December 18, 2017
Guinea- Bissau: 2017 Article IV Consultation and Fourth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Guinea-Bissau
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Guinea-Bissau’s commitment to the Extended-Credit-Facility-supported program is strong and the results are apparent. The economy is growing strongly and the fiscal position has improved markedly. Supported by favorable terms of trade, real GDP growth averaged almost 6 percent in 2015–16, with a surplus on the external current account and inflation below 2 percent a year. Public financial management has improved and the 2017 fiscal deficit is projected to fall under 2 percent of GDP. The outlook is broadly favorable, with growth projected at 5 percent over the medium term.
December 18, 2017
Guinea- Bissau: Selected Issues Paper
Description: This paper explains the cashew economy and the unfolding of the 2017 campaign. At least half of all households are thought to be engaged in production, commercialization, or exportation of cashew nuts. The activity has at least four macroeconomic impacts: one, it injects liquidity to producers; two, owing to producers’ high propensity to consume, it impacts the price level; third, it is the main provider of foreign exchange via exports; and fourth, it is an important source of fiscal revenues. Despite streamlining of marketing arrangements over the years, cashew production is still subject to significant government intervention. Vested interests have traditionally permeated public policies, with nontransparent issuance of licenses and permits used in some instances to block competition. Cashew production started to expand during the 1980s and yearly output has over the years increased to currently about 200,000 tons. Native of north Brazil, cashew trees were introduced by the Portuguese during the colonial period but output remained negligible through to the country’s independence in 1973.
December 18, 2017
Republic of Madagascar: Second Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: This paper discusses Madagascar’s Second Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria (PC). Madagascar’s implementation of its economic program supported by the ECF has remained strong. All quantitative PCs and indicative targets were met at end-June 2017, and the program’s structural agenda is also advancing. The gradual economic recovery has continued, with solid growth and continued macroeconomic stability despite the drought and cyclone that affected Madagascar in early 2017. Fiscal performance has been roughly as planned, with strong revenue performance offsetting some unexpected spending pressures in 2017.
December 18, 2017
Kiribati: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Kiribati’s economic fundamentals have strengthened in recent years. Strong fishing revenue improved the fiscal position, strengthened the current account, and boosted business confidence. After registering a double-digit rate in 2015, real GDP growth declined to 1.1 percent in 2016, but is projected to pick up to about 3 percent in 2017 driven by construction and wholesale and retail trade. The authorities have made commendable progress in structural reforms. They have implemented important reforms to improve the governance and management of the Revenue Equalization Reserve Fund and replenished the fund from the cash reserves. Despite a favorable economic outlook, risks to near-term growth are substantial and skewed to the downside.
December 18, 2017
Jordan: Technical Assistance Report-Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA)
Description: This Technical Assistance Report discusses the recommendations given by the IMF mission on improving the public investment management in Jordan. Jordan’s public finances have deteriorated since the mid-2000s, resulting in a significant reduction in public investment. In response to several negative external shocks, notably the Iraq and Syria crises and the 2008 global financial crisis, the government has reduced public investment and stepped up the use of public-private partnerships (PPPs). It is recommended to improve the quality of strategic planning by clarifying roles and responsibilities, enhancing coordination mechanisms between the institutions involved, and ensuring that strategic projects go through the Executive Development Plan cycle. The oversight and disclosure practices of PPPs should also be strengthened.
December 15, 2017
Cote d'Ivoire: Second Reviews under an Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility and the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility-Press Release; Staff Report
Description: This paper discusses Côte d’Ivoire’s Second Reviews Under An Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). Performance under the EFC/EFF-supported program was strong in the first half of 2017. All performance criteria and indicative targets for end-June 2017 were observed and all structural benchmarks were met. Sound policies implemented by the authorities in the context of the IMF-supported program have helped secure confidence of the international financial markets, which enabled a successful Eurobond issuance in June. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ requests for completion of the second reviews of the program supported by the ECF and EFF arrangements.
December 15, 2017
Togo: First Review under the Extended Credit Facility-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: This paper discusses Togo’s First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement. Program implementation under the ECF-supported program has been good. All quantitative performance criteria and prior actions were met as well as four out of five structural benchmarks. The fiscal consolidation envisaged under the ECF-supported program has begun. The primary deficit improved from an annual average of about 6 percent of GDP in 2013–16 to a surplus of 1.4 percent of GDP in the first half of 2017, due primarily to expenditure rationalization and the halting of non-orthodox financing of public investment. The IMF staff supports the completion of the first ECF review as most quantitative targets, prior actions, and structural benchmarks have been met.
December 14, 2017
Cyprus: Selected Issues
Description: This paper analyzes the economic effects of weak claims enforcement for Cyprus. Claims enforcement in Cyprus is considerably less efficient than in most European Union countries. The banking crisis, which led to a spike in the number of pending litigious civil and commercial cases, could be a factor in the low enforcement efficiency. For Cyprus, piecemeal reform of the enforcement framework may have limited success, and a wholesale review is likely needed. Adding updated components may not fit well with the underlying civil procedure. Instead a comprehensive review, with a focus on limiting case suspensions allowed under interim applications and considering an alternative compensation basis for lawyers should be considered.
December 14, 2017
Cyprus: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Cyprus
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Cypriot economy has achieved an impressive turnaround since the 2012–13 banking crisis. GDP growth has been accelerating for three consecutive years on strong foreign demand. Rising labor demand has sharply lowered the unemployment rate to 10.3 percent as of September 2017. Emergency liquidity assistance to banks has been fully repaid. Gains in cost competitiveness and strong foreign demand have narrowed the underlying current account deficit (excluding large one-off imports). The current strong growth momentum is expected to persist for the next several years, underpinned by ongoing large construction projects and weak payment discipline.
December 14, 2017
Islamic Republic of Afghanistan: Selected Issues
Description: This paper presents estimates of the fiscal revenue cost of conflict in Afghanistan, defined as the loss of government domestic revenue due to conflict. The loss of government revenue is an important component of the humanitarian costs of conflict. In Afghanistan, almost all security spending is funded by foreign grants, which will most likely be scaled back gradually in the event of peace. Hence, any fiscal peace dividend is likely to come principally from increased revenues, as reduced security spending will be mostly offset by reduced grants. Nevertheless, size and the statistical significance of the results suggest that the order of magnitude of the estimate, around $1 billion, is robust. By way of counterfactual, these results imply a sizeable potential fiscal dividend for Afghanistan should peace, or at least a significant reduction in violence, materialize. Several country-specific factors, including conflict and a landlocked geography, have held back an expansion in Afghanistan’s trade which could increase the country’s economic resilience. Improving its external connectivity is a key factor to unlocking its trade potential including leveraging its natural resources.