Country Reports
2019
July 2, 2019
Benin: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper discusses a growth-at-risk (GaR) model which is used to compute a distribution of expected GDP growth for Benin. The model predicts growth rates of ~6.7 percent for 2019 and a range of 6.4–6.8 percent in the medium-term (depending on the specification). Risks to future growth are assessed to be tilted to the downside. 2019 GDP growth is estimated around 6.7 percent, on average, across several specifications. The model considers external factors (world trade, global financial conditions, trade policy uncertainty, and US consumer sentiment), country-specific exposures to external factors (commodity terms of trade and trade-partner growth), and domestic factors (domestic financial conditions, fiscal policy, and the exchange rate). The analysis reveals that growth projections estimated both for the median and mode are slightly higher conditioned on 2018 data, yet when expectations about 2019 are considered using World Economic Outlook projections they fall. Overall, risks seem to be tilted to the downside. Medium term growth is estimated at between 6.4 and 6.8 percent. Risks to growth remain tilted to the downside, yet less skewed than in the short term.
July 2, 2019
Togo: 2019 Article IV Consultation, Fourth Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, and Request for Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion and Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Togo
Description: Economic activity has been recovering, driven by robust performance in the export and agricultural sectors. Fiscal consolidation efforts have continued; Togo complied with the WAEMU deficit convergence criteria in 2017 and 2018, two years ahead of the timeline agreed by member states; public debt declined from 81 percent of GDP at end-2016 to 76 percent of GDP at end-2018. Inflation stood at 2 percent in March 2019 (y-o-y). The external position has improved. The privatization process for the first public bank encountered delays.
July 2, 2019
Togo: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper investigates state-owned financial institutions’ (SOFIs) performance in developing economies. It focuses on Sub-Saharan Africa, zooming in on the Togolese experience with SOFIs and privatization, at a time when the Togolese government has decided to further disengage from the financial sector. Typically set up with a public interest and financial inclusion mandate, SOFIs tend to weaken financial stability and fiscal discipline in developing economies, especially if they are not typically regulated and supervised on the same basis as other banks. Togo’s and cross-country experiences suggest that performance improves more after privatization when the government fully relinquishes control, when banks are privatized to strategic investors rather than through share issues, and when bidding is open to all, including foreign banks. The success of privatization also hinges on the business environment for competition, governance, and entry, on banks’ valuation and how policy concerns are dealt with, as well as on owner’s prudential review quality.
July 1, 2019
The Bahamas: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Detailed Assessment of Observance of Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision
Description: The Bank Supervision Department (BSD) of the Central Bank of the Bahamas (CBoB) has a generally effective supervisory program in place for the size and complexity of the Bahamian banking system. Since the prior FSAP in 2012, clear progress has been made enhancing the framework in a number of areas as well as in the execution of its supervision program. CBoB supervision continues to evolve in a number of positive directions, with most of the areas viewed by assessors as warranting enhancements included in the execution of the program.
July 1, 2019
The Bahamas: Financial System Stability Assessment
Description: The Bahamas appears to be resilient to current threats to its financial stability, but action is needed to safeguard against potential weaknesses. There is a large stock of problem assets that needs to be dealt with from a variety of perspectives: systemic risk monitoring, banking supervision, and crisis management. Vulnerabilities to natural disasters and external economic contagion heighten this need. The banking sector dominates the financial system and has focused on residential mortgages and consumer loans during a long period of economic stagnation. Despite poor growth the sector has remained profitable. However, the small domestic residential property market backing most secured lending is prone to shocks and illiquidity. This has historically led to high and persistent levels of nonperforming loans (NPLs), which significantly increase uncertainty and fragility in the banking system.
July 1, 2019
The Bahamas: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note on Financial Inclusion, Retail Payments, and SME Finance
Description: The CBOB considers increased financial inclusion as a critical reform area. In this regard, the FSAP assessed developments in financial inclusion for individuals and enterprises (SME finance), retail payments and provides recommendations for improvements. A review of the market was undertaken using the Payment Aspects of Financial Inclusion (PAFI) framework covering areas such as the legal/regulatory framework and oversight, retail payment systems and instruments, access to transaction accounts and use cases, as well as SME policy, credit infrastructure, economic empowerment funds and consumer protection and financial literacy.
July 1, 2019
The Bahamas: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note on Financial Stability and Stress Testing
Description: Macrofinancial risks stem from the economy’s vulnerability to external shocks to tourism and real estate investment, exposure to frequent and severe hurricanes, and a small and illiquid real estate market. Stress tests reveal the overall banking system is resilient to a range of adverse scenarios given large aggregate capital and liquidity buffers. Some domestic banks and the two largest credit unions are more vulnerable to asset quality shocks and tail risk conditions. Asset quality and profitability are key determinants of financial institutions’ resilience to adverse shocks. Liquidity, market, sovereign and financial contagion risks are low. The offshore banking sector is not a source of traditional banking risks.
July 1, 2019
Cote d'Ivoire: Fifth Reviews Under the Arrangement the Extended Credit Facility and Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility- Press Release; Staff Report; Supplementary Information and Statement by the Executive Director for Côte d’Ivoire
Description: The political context has become more complex and uncertain ahead of the 2020 presidential elections, with the three traditional parties openly competing since the end of the ruling coalition between President Ouattara’s Republican Democratic Rally and former President Bédié’s Democratic Party of Côte d’Ivoire. Positive investor perceptions of Côte d’Ivoire have so far not been affected. The growth outlook remains strong at 7½ percent, predicated on a continuously improving business environment, buoyant investment and sustained private consumption. Inflation is expected to remain low. Downside risks include the effects of the uncertain political landscape and weaker-than-expected global growth.
July 1, 2019
Maldives: Technical Assistance Report-Reform Options to Strengthen Tax Policy
Description: This report reviews tax policy in the Maldives and identifies reform options to support efficiency, equity, and revenue. The absence of a broad-based personal income tax (PIT) generates revenue leakages and significantly diminishes the role of tax policy in income redistribution. A modern tax design requires a holistic view of the taxation of different sources of income and different legal forms of taxpayers to maintain tax neutrality, to the extent possible, while preserving some degrees of progressivity, simplicity, and administrability. Moreover, updating the tax system to cope with recent international developments is vital to safeguard revenues. While strengthening the goods and services tax (GST) can raise revenues in the short- to medium-term, a property tax is an important option for the long-term. The diagram below demonstrates reform priorities, as identified in this report, to modernize tax policy in the Maldives.
July 1, 2019
Seychelles: Staff Report for the 2019 Article IV Consultation and Third Review Under the Policy Coordination Instrument and Request for Modification of Targets and Monetary Consultation Clause-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Seychelles
Description: Seychelles has made noticeable progress toward economic stability and sustainability under successive Fund programs through prudent macroeconomic policies and bold reforms since the crisis in 2008. Despite significant headway, the country remains vulnerable to external shocks as a small, open, and tourism-dependent economy. Seychelles could face challenges to reconcile its goals to reduce its infrastructure gap, enhance its resilience to climate change, and bolster its medium-term fiscal and external sustainability.