Recent Trade Research and Implications for Developing Countries

An IMF Conference
IMF Headquarters, Meeting Halls A and B
Tuesday, October 19, 2004

Last Updated: October 15, 2004

The Research Department of the IMF is sponsoring a half-day conference to discuss recent research on issues in international trade of importance to developing countries. The conference will be held in Meeting Rooms A and B at IMF Headquarters on October 19, 2004. The conference is not open to the general public.

The conference will include a discussion of the following topics: (i) the impact of the erosion of trade preferences on developing countries and preferential trade agreements; (ii) the effect of trade liberalization on the fiscal positions of developing countries-countries where taxes on trade account for a significant portion of revenue; and (iii) the results of recent research on the impact of liberalization of trade in agricultural products on developing countries. The conference will conclude with a panel discussion, comprised of prominent trade policy experts, on the role the IMF could play in fostering trade reforms in developing countries.

Bibliography

Program
 
Tuesday, October 19, 2004
9–9:15 am Opening remarks by Raghuram Rajan, Director, Research Department, IMF
   
9:15–9:20 am Overview of the conference: Shang-Jin Wei, Research Department, IMF
   
9:25–10:35 am Session 1: Free Trade Agreements and Preferential Market Access: Too Much of a Good Thing?
  Chair: Anoop Singh, Director, Western Hemisphere Department, IMF
  John Romalis, Research Department, IMF: Why free trade agreements are not the same thing as free trade
  Caglar Ozden, World Bank: How should low-income countries cope with erosion of preferential access
  Discussant: Hans-Peter Lankes, Division Chief, Policy Development and Review Department, IMF
   
10:35am–11:00 am Coffee Break
   
11:00am–12:10 pm Session 2: Do Trade Reforms Help or Hurt Developing Countries?
  Chair: Teresa Ter-Minasian, Director, Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF
  Michael Keen, Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF: Should low-income countries be concerned with significant revenue losses from trade reforms?
  Stephen Tokarick, Research Department, IMF: Reform of agricultural trade policies
  Discussant: Pravin Krishna, Johns Hopkins University
   
12:15–1:20 pm Panel Discussion: The IMF and Trade Reforms in Developing Countries
  Chair: Anne O. Krueger, First Deputy Managing Director, IMF
  J. Dave Richardson, Syracuse University and NBER
  T.N. Srinivasan, Yale University
  L. Alan Winters, World Bank
   
1:20 pm Adjourn

Bibliography

Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view these pdf files.

I. Papers Related to the Conference Sessions

Trade Preferences:

1. Ozden, Caglar, and Eric Reinhardt, 2003, "Unilateral Preference Programs: The Evidence"

2. Romalis, John, 2004, "NAFTA's and CUSFTA's Impact on International Trade"

http://gsbwww.uchicago.edu/fac/john.romalis/research/naftapaper.pdf

Revenue Impact of Trade Liberalization

3. Baunsgaard, Thomas, and Michael Keen, 2004, "Tax Revenue and (or) Trade Liberalization?"

http://www.imf.org/External/np/res/seminars/2004/tbmk.pdf

Agricultural Trade Liberalization

4. Tokarick, Stephen, 2003, "Measuring the Impact of Distortions in Agricultural Trade in Partial and General Equilibrium," IMF Working Paper 03/110

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2003/wp03110.pdf

II. Other Relevant Papers on Trade Topics:

A. Trade and Growth

1. Cassing, James, and Stephen Tokarick, 2004, "Trade and Growth in the Presence of Distortions."

http://www.imf.org/External/np/res/seminars/2004/jcst.pdf

2. Brunner, Alan, 2003, "The Long-Run Effects of Trade on Income and Income Growth," IMF Working Paper 03/37.

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2003/wp0337.pdf

3. Berg, Andrew, and Anne Krueger, 2003, "Trade, Growth, and Poverty: A Selective Survey," IMF Working Paper 03/30.

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2003/wp0330.pdf

B. Issues in Trade Liberalization and Trade Policy Reform

1. Tokarick, Stephen, 2004, "What Do We Know About Tariff Incidence?" IMF Working Paper 04/182

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2004/wp04182.pdf

2. Mlachila, Montfort, and Yang, Yongzheng, 2004, "The End of Textiles Quotas: A Case Study of the Impact on Bangladesh," IMF Working Paper 04/108.

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2004/wp04108.pdf

3. Amiti, Mary, 2003, "Are Uniform Tariffs Optimal?"

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2004/wp0472.pdf

4. Subramanian, Arvind, and Shang-Jin Wei, 2003, "The WTO Promotes Trade, Strongly But Unevenly," IMF Working Paper 03/185.

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2003/wp03185.pdf

5. Wang, Qing, 2001, "Import-Reducing Effect of Trade Barriers: A Cross Country Investigation," IMF Working Paper 01/216.

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2001/wp01216.pdf

C. Trade Policy and Labor Markets:

1. Amiti, Mary, and Shang-Jin Wei, 2004, "Fear of Outsourcing: Is It Justified?" IMF Working Paper 04/186.

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2004/wp04186.pdf

2. Tokarick, Stephen, 2002, "Quantifying the Impact of Trade on Wages: The Role of Nontraded Goods," IMF Working Paper 02/191.

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2002/wp02191.pdf

D. Regional Trade Policy Studies

1. Kose, Ayhan, Meredith, Guy, and Christopher Towe, 2004, "How Has NAFTA Affected the Mexican Economy? Review and Evidence," IMF Working Paper 04/59.

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2004/wp0459.pdf

2. Rumbaugh, Thomas, and Nicholas Blancher, 2004, "China: International Trade and WTO Accession," IMF Working Paper 04/36.

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2004/wp0436.pdf

E. Trade and Financial Issues

1. Lehman, Alexander, Tamirisa, Natalia, and Jaroslaw Wieczorek, 2003, "International Trade in Services: Implications for the IMF," IMF Policy Discussion Paper 03/6.

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/pdp/2003/pdp06.pdf

2. Imbs, Jean, 2003, "Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization," IMF Working Paper 03/81.

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2003/wp0381.pdf

F. Other Trade Research

1. Romalis, John, 2003, "Factor Proportions and the Structure of Commodity Trade,"

http://gsbwww.uchicago.edu/fac/john.romalis/research/factor.pdf

2. Broda, Christian, and John Romalis, 2003, "Identifying the Relationship Between Trade and Exchange Rate Volatility"

http://gsbwww.uchicago.edu/fac/john.romalis/research/erv_trade.pdf