財政モニター

公的債務を
抑制するには

2024年10月

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  • 公的債務を抑制するには

    世界の公的債務は増加している。2024年には100兆米ドルを超えると予測されており、中期的に増加する見込みだ。本章では、債務見通しに対するリスクが上振れ方向に大きく傾いていることを示す。極端な悲観シナリオでは、世界の債務が3年先にベースライン予測よりもGDP比で20%ポイント近く大きくなり、対GDP比で115%に達すると推定される。債務を高い確率で安定させる（または削減する）ためには、現在の計画よりもはるかに大きな財政調整が必要である。今こそが財政バッファーを再構築する好機であり、先延ばしにすればコストが大きい。成長に配慮した形で財政バッファーを再構築し、財政ガバナンスを強化することが、持続可能な財政と金融の安定を確保する上で不可欠である。

    分析章

    第1章　公的債務を抑制するには

    高水準の債務が懸念材料となっている。本章では、公的債務の見通しを取り巻くリスクを定量化し、それらのリスクに対処するための財政バッファーを再構築する上で必要となる政策を示す。

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                        財政モニター
                        ファイナンス＆ディベロップメント　2025年3月号