Sub-Saharan Africa
Regional Economic Outlook:Sub-Saharan Africa
October 2007
World Economic and Financial Surveys
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The region's prospects look strong. Growth in sub-Saharan Africa should reach 6 percent in 2007 and 6¾ percent in 2008. The economic expansion is strongest in oil exporters but cuts across all country groups. This would extend a period of very good performance. In recent years, sub-Saharan Africa has been experiencing its strongest growth and lowest inflation in over 30 years. |
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Contents
| Preface | |
| Abbreviations | |
| Executive Summary | |
| I. | Overview |
| Main Developments and Outlook for 2007 | |
| Macroeconomic Policy Issues | |
| Prospects for 2008 | |
| Medium-Term Policy Challenges | |
| II. | The Creation of Fiscal Space for Priority Spending: Case Studies in Sub-Saharan Africa |
| Experience with Sources of Fiscal Space | |
| Experience with the Use of Fiscal Space | |
| Planning for the Medium Term in Theory and Practice | |
| Country Case Studies | |
| Appendix | |
| Statistical Appendix | |
| Sub-Saharan Africa: Country Groupings | |
| Data and Conventions | |
| List of Tables | |
| References | |
| Publications of the IMF African Department, 2003–07 | |
| Tables | |
| 1.1. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Selected Indicators, 2003-08 |
| 2.1. | Fiscal Space Indicators for Selected Countries, Changes, 2000–06 |
| 2.2. | Debt Service–to-GDP Ratios for Selected Countries, 2000–06 |
| 2.3. | Ghana: Sources and Uses of Fiscal Space |
| 2.4. | Malawi: Sources and Uses of Fiscal Space |
| 2.5. | Rwanda: Sources and Uses of Fiscal Space |
| 2.6. | Tanzania: Sources and Uses of Fiscal Space |
| 2.7. | Uganda: Sources and Uses of Fiscal Space |
| Figures | |
| 1.1. | A Comparison of Growth |
| 1.2. | Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa |
| 1.3. | Contribution to GDP Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa |
| 1.4. | Real per capita GDP Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa |
| 1.5. | Terms of Trade in Sub-Saharan Africa |
| 1.6. | Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa |
| 1.7. | Components of Official Development Assistance to Sub-Saharan Africa |
| 1.8. | Sub-Saharan Africa’s External Current Account Balance |
| 1.9. | Trade Volume and Terms of Trade in Sub-Saharan Africa |
| 1.10. | Sub-Saharan African Commodity Prices |
| 1.11. | International Reserves in Sub-Saharan Africa |
| 1.12. | External Debt in Sub-Saharan Africa |
| 1.13. | Counterparts to Money Supply in Sub-Saharan Africa |
| 1.14. | Credit to the Private Sector in Sub-Saharan Africa |
| 1.15. | Real Effective Exchange Rates in Sub-Saharan Africa |
| 1.16. | Real Effective Exchange Rates in the CEMAC and the WAEMU |
| 1.17. | Real Effective Exchange Rates in Sub-Saharan African Countries with a Floating Regime |
| 1.18. | Real Effective Exchange Rates in Sub-Saharan Africa |
| 1.19. | Central Government Revenues in Sub-Saharan Africa |
| 1.20. | Central Government Primary Spending in Sub-Saharan Africa |
| 1.21. | Central Government Social Spending in Sub-Saharan Africa |
| 1.22. | Central Government Balance in Sub-Saharan Africa |
| 1.23. | Low-Income Sub-Saharan African Countries: Government Financing of Fiscal Deficits |
| 1.24. | Growth Prospects in Sub-Saharan Africa |
| 2.1. | Median Revenue-to-GDP Ratio for Selected Groups of African Countries |
| 2.2. | Median Grants-to-GDP Ratio for Selected Groups of African Countries |
| 2.3. | Median Expenditures-to-GDP Ratio for Selected Groups of African Countries |
| 2.4. | Median Overall Deficit–to-GDP Ratio for Selected Groups of African Countries |
| 2.5. | Ghana: Total Official External Financing, 2005–09 |
| 2.6a. | Rwanda: Aid and Capital Expenditure |
| 2.6b. | Rwanda: Government Revenue and Expenditure |
| 2.7. | Uganda: Net Donor Inflows |
| 2.8. | Uganda: Government Expenditure and Revenue |
| Boxes | |
| 1.1. | Typology of Countries |
| 1.2. | Terms of Trade and Current Growth Episodes in Sub-Saharan Africa |
| 1.3. | Aid to Sub-Saharan Africa: Where Do We Stand on Gleneagles? |
| 1.4. | Private Capital Flows to Sub-Saharan Africa |
| 1.5. | Foreign Exchange Reserve Adequacy in Africa |
| 1.6. | The Local Currency Debt Market in the West African Economic and Monetary Union |
| 2.1. | The Poverty and Social Impact of Increasing Fiscal Space Through Revenue Collection |
| 2.2. | Reforms at the Uganda Revenue Authority |