COVID-19 Containment Measures and Expected Stock Volatility: High-Frequency Evidence from Selected Advanced Economies

By Viral V. Acharya, Yang Liu, Yunhui Zhao

June 4, 2021

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Viral V. Acharya, Yang Liu, and Yunhui Zhao. COVID-19 Containment Measures and Expected Stock Volatility: High-Frequency Evidence from Selected Advanced Economies, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2021) accessed December 21, 2024

Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary

We study the effect of COVID-19 containment measures on expected stock price volatility in some advanced economies, using event studies with hand-collected minute-level data and panel regressions with daily data. We find that six-month-ahead volatility indices dropped following announcements of initial or re-imposed lockdowns, and that they did not drop significantly following the easing of lockdowns. Such patterns are not as strong for three-month-ahead expected volatility and generally absent for one-month-ahead expected volatility. These results provide suggestive evidence for the existence of an intertemporal trade-off: although stringent containment measures cause short-term economic disruptions, they may reduce medium-term uncertainty (reflected in expected stock volatility) by boosting markets’ confidence that the outbreak would be under control more quickly.

Subject: Economic sectors, Financial crises

Publication Details

Pages:

43
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2021/157
Stock No:

WPIEA2021157
ISBN:

9781513573502
ISSN:

1018-5941

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