Guyana: Why Has Growth Stopped? An Empirical Study on the Stagnation of Economic Growth

By Judith Gold, Ruben V Atoyan, Cornelia Staritz

April 1, 2007

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Judith Gold, Ruben V Atoyan, and Cornelia Staritz. Guyana: Why Has Growth Stopped? An Empirical Study on the Stagnation of Economic Growth, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2007) accessed October 5, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

After a period of exceptionally strong economic performance, Guyana's growth has stagnated since 1998. The paper tries to identify the factors that can explain this dramatic deterioration in economic performance. The paper first attempts to explain the decline of growth with a growth accounting exercise which shows that there was a significant swing in total factor productivity, and than uses a panel regression framework to analyze the growth impact of changes in various factors. Finally, through a series of cross-country exercises, the paper shows that the primary reasons for the divergence between the economic performance of Guyana and other Caribbean, HIPC, and PRGF-eligible countries in 1998-2004 are a substantial decline in share of net foreign and private domestic investment in GDP, a decline in the labor force, and a less favorable political and institutional environment.

Subject: Capital formation, Foreign direct investment, Labor force, Private investment, Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP)

Keywords: Sub, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

26
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2007/086
Stock No:

WPIEA2007086
ISBN:

9781451866506
ISSN:

1018-5941

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