Working Papers
1990
April 1, 1990
The Risk Premiumon Italian Government Debt, 1976-1988
Description: This paper considers the behavior of the yield differential between government and nongovernment bonds in Italy between 1976 and 1988. It is shown that the trend increase of the differential observed in this period was significantly influenced by the deterioration of public finances, as reflected both by an increase in the relative supply of government with respect to nongovernment paper and by a worsening of selected default risk indicators. In addition, the effect of relative supply factors was found to be statistically more robust and quantitatively more important than the effect of risk indicators in explaining the movements of the yield differential.
April 1, 1990
Labor Market Segmentation in a Two-Sector Model of An Open Economy
Description: The paper examines formally the effects of labor market segmentation in a two-sector open economy model. The model demonstrates how the structure of the labor market affects the real exchange rate, defined as the relative price of traded and home goods, and is then used to examine the effects of two common labor market policies: increasing the degree of primary market coverage, and implementing wage restraint in the primary market. It is shown that increasing the degree of primary market coverage increases unemployment and leads to a real appreciation. Real wage restraint in the primary market, on the other hand, reduces unemployment, and has ambiguous but probably small effects on the real exchange rate.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 37, No. 4, December 1990.
April 1, 1990
Target Zones and Interest Rate Variability
Description: The trade-off between interest rate variability and the width of an exchange rate target zone is examined, using the regulated Brownian motion model of target zones. The interest rate differential’s asymptotic (unconditional) variability is increasing in the exchange rate band for narrow bands; whereas it is slowly decreasing for wide bands. The interest rate differential’s instantaneous (conditional) variability is decreasing in the exchange rate band. The model is extended to include a realignment/devaluation risk, as well as an endogenous exchange rate risk premium. The risk premium is small for reasonable parameter values.
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1990
March 1, 1990
The Crisis in the Financial Sector and the Authorities' Reaction: The Case of the Philippines
Description: The paper discusses the crisis in the Philippines financial sector that began on a limited scale in 1981 and culminated in a significant contraction of the financial system in 1986. The causes, manifestation and transmission mechanism of the crisis are analyzed and reactions of the authorities to the crisis are examined. The main conclusion is that weaknesses of the regulatory framework and loose banking practices provoked and exacerbated the crisis, while the political and economic climate during 1979-83 also played a key role. In the end, the authorities’ interventions to contain the crisis was sucessful but costly.
March 1, 1990
Dynamic Responses to Policy and Exogenous Shocks in an Empirical Developing-Country Model with Rational Expectations
Description: The dynamic responses of a developing economy to a variety of policy and external shocks are studied using an empirical macroeconomic model which embodies rational expectations, perfect capital mobility, and import rationing. These features, which are relatively new in developing-country modelling, prove to be quite important in determining the model’s dynamic properties. This suggests that macroeconomic management in developing countries--such as that involved in short-run stabilization--requires that such features be explicitly taken into account.
March 1, 1990
Sustainable Plans and Mutual Default
Description: This paper presents a model of optimal taxation in which both private agents and the government can default on their debt. We first consider Ramsey equilibria in which the government can precommit to its policies but in which private agents can default. We then consider sustainable equilibria in which both government and private agent decision rules are required to be sequentially rational. We show that when there is sufficiently little discounting and government consumption fluctuates enough, the Ramsey allocations and policies (in which the government never defaults) can be supported by a sustainable equilibrium.
March 1, 1990
Interest Rate Targeting in a Small Open Economy: The Predetermined Exchange Rates Case
Description: An important hurdle in analyzing interest rate targeting is that standard models usually lead to price level or inflation rate indeterminacy. This paper develops a simple framework in which such problems do not arise because the bonds whose interest rate is controlled provide liquidity services. This framework is used to examine interest rate targeting in a small open economy under predetermined exchange rates. A permanent increase in the interest rate has no real effects. In contrast, a temporary increase in the interest rate leads to higher consumption and to a current account deficit that worsens over time.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 37, No. 4, December 1990.
March 1, 1990
Stabilization Policies in Developing Countries with a Parallel Market for Foreign Exchange: A Formal Framework
Description: The paper develops and tests a model of a developing economy that incorporates trade and capital restrictions, illegal transactions, a parallel foreign exchange market, currency substitution features, and forward-looking rational expectations. Temporary expansionary demand policies are associated with an increase in output and prices, a fall in the stock of net foreign assets, and a depreciation of the parallel exchange rate. The speed of adjustment is inversely related to the degree of rationing in the official foreign currency market. A once-for–all devaluation of the official exchange rate has no long-term effect on the premium.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 37, No. 3, September 1990.