Working Papers
1990
September 1, 1990
Market Valuation of Illiquid Debt and Implications for Conflicts Among Creditors
Description: We develop a formula for the market value of debt when the borrower’s repayment capacity varies stochastically, and shortfalls are rolled over. The value of a marginal dollar of nominal claim is an S-shaped function of the ratio of the repayment capacity to the amount of nominal debt. Shifts of this curve are examined in response to changes in the underlying parameters. The calculations bring out some conflicts of interest among lenders of differing degrees of seniority. Most surprisingly, junior creditors gain when the loan is rescheduled on terms more favorable to the debtor.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 38, No. 4, December 1991.
September 1, 1990
Economic Implications of German Unification for the Federal Republic and the Rest of the World
Description: The economic effects of German unification are first discussed in the context of a global saving/investment model. Next, simulations of MULTIMOD are presented, suggesting for the FRG an initial increase in long-term real interest rates equal to 3/4 of a percentage point, increased output, a temporary half-point rise in inflation, a modest real appreciation of the deutsche mark, and a reduction of the (combined GDR and FRG) current account surplus equal to 2 percent of GNP. Effects on the rest of the world seem to be relatively small. Different policies are examined within the EMS, and other simulation studies are surveyed.
September 1, 1990
Exchange Restrictions and Devaluation Crises
Description: This paper develops a model of devaluation crises for an economy where foreign exchange restrictions lead to the emergence of a parallel market. The devaluation rule relates the size of the parity change to the spread between the official and parallel exchange rates. The mechanism that triggers the devaluation relates credit policy and the inflation tax. A credit expansion leads to an increase in the spread and possibly to a fall in inflation tax revenue, as agents switch away from domestic currency holdings. A devaluation reverses temporarily the process of erosion of the tax base if the associated fall in the premium raises the credibility of the new parity.
September 1, 1990
Protection and Export Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa
Description: This paper examines the extent and structure of nominal protection in a large sample of Sub-Saharan countries, and provides estimates of the effects of this protection on the exports of these countries. Both tariff rates and the frequency of nontariff barriers are found to be appreciably higher on average in the Sub-Saharan countries than in other developing countries. The empirical estimates, based on simulations of a simple model of trade and real exchange rate adjustment, suggest that protection reduces the value of the sample countries’ exports (relative to baseline levels) by between 15 and 33 percent per annum, and inhibits export diversification.
September 1, 1990
Stability of Velocity in the Group of Seven Countries: A Kalman Filter Approach
Description: This paper estimates forecasting models using annual data for the income velocity of money in the G-7 countries. The predictions are conditional upon the realized value of the long-term domestic government bond rate. Such conditional forecasts did not deteriorate over the period 1980-1988 as compared with the earlier postwar period. Velocity of M1 is found to be very interest-elastic in almost all countries; velocity of M2 less so. The specifications (based on Kalman filters and smoothers) point to a non-constant (stochastic) trend in velocity, hence questioning the assumptions required for the cointegration techniques used in other research on the demand for money.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 38, No. 3, September 1991.
0001
January 1, 0001
$name
January 1, 0001
$name
1990
August 1, 1990
Monetary Policy in an Emerging European Economic and Monetary Union: Key Issues
Description: This paper discusses key issues relating to the design and implementation of monetary policy in an emerging European economic and monetary union. Specific institutional proposals for transition to EMU are neither endorsed nor dismissed. In examining the goals of monetary policy, the paper explores the interrelationships among price stability, current account equilibrium, and exchange rate stability. Turning to the implementation of monetary policy, the issues addressed are: coordination versus autonomy, rules versus discretion, and the role of sterilized official intervention. Finally, the last part of the paper emphasizes the importance of fiscal discipline, and evaluates several alternative mechanisms for encouraging it.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 38, No. 2, June 1991.
August 1, 1990
On Noncooperative Capital Income Taxation in Open Economies
Description: This paper discusses the strategic use of capital income taxation and lump-sum fiscal policies for gaining national advantage in an integrated world capital market. Each fiscal authority seeks to maximize a social welfare function defined over the utilities of home country residents incorporating national redistributing objectives. A national optimum policy is to impose a non-discriminatory source-based capital income tax or subsidy along with an optimal lump-sum tax and transfer plan. Residence-based capital income taxes do not augment the set of lump-sum fiscal instruments, although both policies can be used to influence the world interest rate to national advantage, redistributing welfare internationally. When unrestricted lump-sum fiscal policies are unavailable, source-based capital income taxes may be needed to achieve distributional objectives, so that departures from global production efficiency can arise in a cooperative equilibrium.
July 1, 1990
Tax Policy and Reform for Foreign Direct Investment in Developing Countries
Description: This paper identifies tax factors in 21 developing countries that have an impact on foreign direct investment flows. It categorizes those factors into issues associated with tax coordination; tax rates and rate structures; and composition of the tax base. Recent actions by countries reveal no clear pattern in their attempts to increase tax coordination, while many have reduced corporate tax rates and stream-lined tax incentives. However, broad-based tax reform is lacking in most, leaving room for further possibilities in tax reform for attracting foreign investment. The paper also addresses nontax factors that can be instrumental in attracting foreign investment.