Working Papers
1990
October 1, 1990
Why is Unemployment so High At Full Capacity? The Persistence of Unemployment, the Natural Rate, and Potential Output in the Federal Republic of Germany
Description: The empirical analysis indicates that in the Federal Republic the unemployed primarily influence the relationship between the level of real wages and productivity, rather than the growth of wages. This result suggests a distinction between an equilibrium natural rate of unemployment, which is estimated to have been 3-4 percent in the 1980s, and a quasi-equilibrium unemployment rate closer to actual rates of 7-8 percent. Corresponding to these two concepts of equilibrium unemployment, estimates are presented of alternative concepts of potential output that differ according to whether labor input is consistent with the quasi-equilibrium rate of unemployment or with the natural rate of unemployment.
October 1, 1990
Investment in Housing in the United States: A Portfolio Approach: The Possible Effects of Changes in Tax Policy
Description: It is well known that the preferential tax treatment of housing induces an inefficient allocation of saving and investment. This paper analyzes, in a portfolio framework, how eliminating the deductibility of mortgage interest payments for federal income tax purposes might affect investment in housing. Expected rate of return and risk is estimated for three assets, bonds, housing, and stocks. The possibility that assets are imperfect substitutes is explicitly recognized in one section of the paper. The model suggests that the share of housing is likely to decrease by 4 to 9 percentage points if mortgage interest payments are not deductible. This may call for careful phasing of the change in policy.
Notes: This paper analyzes how the elimination of the decuctibility of mortgage interest payments for federal income tax purposes might affect investment in housing.
October 1, 1990
European Fiscal Harmonization and the French Economy
Description: This paper examines the implications of European fiscal harmonization for the French economy using a general equilibrium model. The latter extends the overlapping generations simulation model of Auerbach and Kotlikoff in three ways. A well-developed external sector is included. Households face constraints in their borrowing. The population comprises “rich” and “poor” households with different labor productivities. The harmonization policy that involves cuts in VAT and savings taxes leads to welfare losses for both rich and poor approximately equivalent to one percent of GDP.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 38, No. 2, June 1991.
October 1, 1990
Financial innovation and Consumption in the United Kingdom
Description: The last decade has seen widespread deregulation of domestic financial markets in the United Kingdom. This paper uses regional household data to investigate the connection between consumption and financial innovation. It is concluded that deregulation has led to a significant increase in the forward looking nature of consumption.
October 1, 1990
Tax Efficiency in an Open Economy
Description: This note assesses the relative efficiency of different tax bases in an open economy. If terms of trade effects are large, lump-sum taxation may be inferior to distortionary consumption or wage taxes. This result is demonstrated analytically using a simple neoclassical model. An overlapping generations, general equilibrium, simulation model is then employed to show the empirical significance of the effects involved.
October 1, 1990
Fiscal Policy During the Demise of Central Planning: The Transition to a Market Economy
Description: This paper constructs an intertemporal general equilibrium model designed to examine an economy in transition from central planning to being market oriented. A numerical algorithm is developed to obtain a solution for the model. Simulations using stylized country-specific data examine the effects of price controls during the transition period, as well as of imposing taxes on returns to investment, and on interest earned on private savings. The paper concludes that, under certain circumstances, the taxation of investment as well as of private savings may have positive effects upon consumer welfare, if price distortions are sufficiently severe.
October 1, 1990
Fiscal Policy, the Real Exchange Rate and Commodity Prices
Description: The role of the international commodity market in transmitting disturbances is considered in a model that incorporates commodities as an input in production. The analysis employs a three-country framework: a liquidity-constrained commodity supplier and two industrial countries that import the commodity, export differentiated manufactured goods and hold the outstanding debt of the commodity exporter. In this setting the impact of changes in fiscal policy, commodity supplies, and the real interest rate are assessed. Particular attention is paid to the responses of the real exchange rate, commodity prices, and the international distribution of debt to the various shocks.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 38, No. 3, September 1991.
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1990
September 1, 1990
The Optimal Mix of Inflationary Finance and Commodity Taxation with Collection Lags
Description: When there are collection lags in the tax system, inflation reduces the real revenues. This is often offered as an argument for less reliance on the inflation tax. But the optimal rates of other taxes should also be reconsidered in the light of collection lags. When this is done, the focus shifts from the revenues (which can be recouped by changing the rates of these taxes), to the associated costs of collection. In a benchmark case where the average costs of collection are constant, the optimal inflation tax is independent of the collection lag.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 38, No. 3, September 1991.
September 1, 1990
Sustainability, Premia, and the Dollar
Description: The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.