Working Papers
January 1, 0001
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January 1, 0001
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1991
March 1, 1991
Output Fluctuations and Monetary Shocks: Evidence From Colombia
Description: Using annual data for Colombia over the last thirty years and a new battery of econometric techniques, we test opposing theories that explain macroeconomic fluctuations: The neoclassical synthesis, which posits that, in the presence of temporary price rigidity, an unanticipated monetary expansion produces output gains that erode over time with increases in the price level; and an alternative explanation, which focuses on “real” technological or preference shocks as the sources of output changes. The coefficients from these systems are used to examine two basic propositions: the long-run neutrality of nominal quantities with respect to permanent movements in the money stock; and the short-run sensitivity of output to inflation.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 38, No. 4, December 1991.
March 1, 1991
From Direct to Indirect Monetary Policy Instruments: The French Experience Reconsidered
Description: If not carefully planned, the transition to indirect monetary policy instruments may result in a loss of control. The 1967-71 attempt in France failed because of a misconceived instrument-mix and sequencing. Credit controls, reintroduced in 1972, were only formally abolished in 1987. This paper attributes the successful 1987 reform to changes in the policy framework in the 1980s. The interest rate was already the key instrument because direct controls became less effective and because of the priority given to the exchange rate objective. Consequently, the 1987 transition was from pegging to guiding the interest rates. Empirical evidence underpins this interpretation.
March 1, 1991
Exchange Rate Appreciation As a Signal of a New Policy Stance
Description: It is shown in a game theoretic framework that it may pay off to signal a “conservative” policy stance--giving a high priority to price stability--by appreciating the exchange rate. Such an appreciation demonstrates to domestic producers and more precisely to the trade union that the new policy stance is meant to be serious. An example explores the welfare implication for the policy maker and the trade union. The empirical background of the paper refers to the monetary policy in Europe. It explains the occurrence of exchange rate commitments to the deutsche mark, with appreciated rates.
March 1, 1991
Liberalization and Financial Crisis in Uruguay (1974-1987)
Description: The financial system in Uruguay underwent a serious crisis beginning in 1982, which resulted in the failure of many banks and to a major restructuring of the financial system. This paper examines the causes and consequences of this crisis, exploring the relationship between developments in the financial sector and those in the rest of the economy. It also discusses the effect of financial liberalization, and government policies in banking regulation and supervision on the crisis, as well as the measures that the government took to deal with the crisis.
March 1, 1991
Macroeconomic Policies and Long-Term Growth: A Conceptual and Empirical Review
Description: This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical aspects of the relationship between macroeconomic policies and the long-run rate of growth of GNP. The macroeconomic policies examined include fiscal policies, monetary and interest rate policies, external policies, and policies to reform the goods and labor markets, including adjustments of producer prices and wages. In general, the effects of these policies on growth operate directly or indirectly through their influence on investment in physical and human capital, and on factor productivity. The available empirical evidence confirms the effects of specific macroeconomic and financial policies on long-run growth.
March 1, 1991
Monetary Policy and the Price Behavior in Emerging Stock Markets
Description: This paper examines whether the six largest and most active emerging stock markets are informationally efficient with respect to changes in the money supply. To investigate if stock prices fully reflect the information contained in money supply changes, two different econometric techniques are employed. First, direct Granger-causality tests are used, which locus on the short-run relationship between stock prices and money. Second, the long-run behavior of the two variables is studied by means of co-integration tests. The results suggest that at least for two markets profitable trading rules can be developed to earn consistently higher-than-normal rates of return.
March 1, 1991
Real Exchange Rates and Competitiveness: A Clarification of Concepts, and Some Measurements for Europe
Description: This paper examines indicators of competitiveness. It analyzes the conceptual foundations of conventional measures of the real exchange rate and finds that inferences about competitiveness from these indicators require strong, and in many cases implausible, assumptions. Based on this analysis some alternative measures are proposed and their use is illustrated using data from Europe. Given the usefulness of standardized indicators, four simple charts are proposed; these help solve some conundrums in the European data and provide the basis for a richer set of inferences about competitiveness.
March 1, 1991
Integration of Eastern Europe Into the World Trading System
Description: The sheer size of mandated trade among members of the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA), and its composition and quality, means that its reorientation toward other markets entails a whole complex of structural adjustment policies. To be successful, policy reform must be comprehensive, with clarity of purpose and predictability of action. Nevertheless, while gradualism should not be used as an excuse for delay, reforms must be harmonized with the timetable of requisite institutional change. In any case, reform must be accompanied by trade liberalization to help break down domestic monopolies and to gain the efficiencies from division of labor.