Working Papers
1991
August 1, 1991
Mexico's External Debt and the Return to Voluntary Capital Market Financing
Description: The paper analyzes the evolution of Mexico’s approach to commercial bank debt restructuring since the outbreak of the 1982 debt servicing problems. It discusses the key elements of the approach, their implementation, and their interaction with developments in the “international debt strategy.” It focusses, in particular, on factors contributing to the emergence of comprehensive market-based debt and debt service reduction operations. Together with the sustained implementation of appropriate economic policies, these operations have contributed to Mexico’s return to voluntary international capital market financing. The paper discusses the major aspects of this market re-entry process.
August 1, 1991
Jordan: Restructuring Public Expenditures and Protecting the Poor
Description: In Jordan, a system of general food subsidies became untenable in budgetary terms, with a sharp devaluation of the dinar in the late 1980s. A shift from a general subsidy system to limited rations would greatly reduce budgetary costs and minimize adverse effects on the poor. To reduce subsidies, the authorities had taken measures, during the course of 1990, consistent with the measures suggested. To complete the safety net, a system of self-targeting public works is suggested; a reform of the social security system might also be needed in view of the increased unemployment resulting from the recent Middle East crisis.
August 1, 1991
Colombia: Economic Adjustment and the Poor
Description: This paper assesses the impact on the poor of the macroeconomic adjustment program undertaken in 1985-86. It finds that program-induced changes in production, employment, and real incomes have benefited the poor, while the adverse impact of program-induced price changes was modest and was largely cushioned by government policies. The paper describes the dimensions of poverty in Colombia, surveys government programs to alleviate poverty, and reviews the factors contributing to the improvement in the income distribution in recent years.
August 1, 1991
The Romanian Economic Reform Program
Description: With the start of the process of its transition to a market economy in early 1990, Romania joined the ranks of other reforming Eastern European countries. At the starting point of its reform program, however, Romania was in a deep economic and institutional crisis and had no experience in even modest attempts to reform its economy. This paper outlines the main characteristics of the Romanian economic system before the reform, and presents the evolution of the reform program, as well as its achievements in the first year or so since it was launched.
August 1, 1991
Testing the Credibility of the Belgian Hard Currency Policy
Description: Interest rate differentials have been widely used to assess the degree of policy credibility. A problem with this measure, however, is that the relationship between the differential and credibility varies not only across maturities but also with the actual level of the exchange rate. The alternative approach used in this paper, based on the construction of rate-of-return bands, overcomes this difficulty. It is applied to Belgium, which in May 1990 hardened its exchange rate policy stance. Comparisons with other small, open European economies are carried out. Econometric evidence is provided supporting the claim that the announcement and active implementation of a tighter exchange rate link does make a difference.
August 1, 1991
Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization under Imperfect Credibility
Description: This paper analyzes stabilization policy under predetermined exchange rates in a cash-in-advance, staggered-prices model. Under full credibility, a reduction in the rate of devaluation results in an immediate and permanent reduction in the inflation rate, with no effect on output or consumption. In contrast, a non-credible stabilization results in an initial expansion of output, followed by a later recession. The inflation rate of home goods remains above the rate of devaluation throughout the program, thus resulting in a sustained real exchange rate appreciation.
August 1, 1991
Index Number Biases During Price Liberalization
Description: When a formerly centrally-planned economy frees prices and allows or compels producers to respond to market signals, conventional measures tend to severely overstate short–run output decline and inflation. In part the overstatement stems from neglect of private sector activity, or from belated recognition of inflation previously disguised as quality improvements. Even when individual prices and outputs are correctly measured, however, shifts in relative prices consequent to price decontrol create a serious aggregation problem. Moreover, the standard indices ignore the deflationary trends in black markets. Superior growth and inflation indices are devised using a combination of official and black market prices.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 39, No. 2, June 1992.
August 1, 1991
Fiscal Constraintson Market-Oriented Reform in a Socialist Economy
Description: This paper develops a simple two-sector model of a socialist economy, in which government revenues required for servicing external debt are obtained from taxation of the socialized sector and from import taxes. Wages and employment in the socialized sector are the outcome of Nash bargaining between the government and an import-competing labor-dominated state enterprise with domestic market power. The effects of trade liberalization, demonopolization, technical improvements, and limitations on labor’s bargaining power are examined, and the implications for privatization are considered. It is shown that some combination of tax reform and debt reduction may be a precondition for market-oriented reforms.
Notes: Examines the relationship among market-oriented reform, debt reduction,and tax reform in a socialist economy.
August 1, 1991
The Restoration of Latin America's Access to Voluntary Capital Market Financing: Developments and Prospects
Description: After a prolonged and almost total reliance on debt restructurings and concerted new money facilities, several Latin American countries have, over the last two years, mobilized voluntary financing from international capital markets. Although the phenomenon is still relatively limited in terms of volume and number of borrowers, it has nevertheless attracted considerable attention. The paper reviews the nature, magnitude and terms of the market re-entry process and, by drawing upon recent country experiences, analyzes the factors that have facilitated it. This provides the basis for a discussion of the key elements affecting the short-term prospects for Latin American private and public sector voluntary debt and equity financing from international capital markets.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 39, No. 1, March 1992.
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