Working Papers
1991
September 1, 1991
Mozambique: Economic Rehabilitation and the Poor
Description: Poverty has remained widespread in Mozambique, mostly on account of the prevalent war situation. This paper provides a profile of the lowest income groups in Mozambique and examines how they were affected by the economic recovery program of 1986–90. The results, indicate that despite large price adjustments, in real terms minimum and low wages improved over the 1986–90 period. Agricultural production increased in response to better incentives, and small farmers in safe areas improved their relative income position. However, in the presence of a large refugee population and war-related destruction, there continues to be a pressing need for extended emergency aid.
September 1, 1991
Exchange Rate Regime Choice
Description: Traditionally the choice of exchange rate regime has been seen as a second-best policy choice, which can be directed toward mitigating the distortionary effects of price or information rigidities. In this paradigm the optimal degree of exchange rate flexibility is found to depend of the source and nature of shocks hitting an economy. More recent literature views the exchange rate as a widely and frequently seen manifestation of government policy with careful exchange-rate management emerging as a tool that can enhance shaky policy credibility.
September 1, 1991
Market-Based Fiscal Discipline in Monetary Unions: Evidence From the U.S. Municipal Bond Market
Description: The concept of market-based fiscal discipline posits that a government which runs persistent, excessive fiscal deficits will face an increased cost of borrowing and eventually, a reduced availability of credit, and that these market actions will provide an incentive to correct irresponsible fiscal behavior. This paper presents new empirical evidence on market-based fiscal discipline by estimating the relationship between the cost of borrowing and fiscal policy behavior across U.S. states. We find that U.S. states which have followed more prudent fiscal policies are perceived by the market as having lower default risk and are therefore able to reap the benefit of lower borrowing costs.
September 1, 1991
The Effect of the ERMon Participating Economies
Description: The effect of membership of the ERM on macroeconomic performance is analyzed using vector autoregression techniques. The results indicate that while the ERM has had little effect on the nature of the shocks hitting the economies, it has had a significant effect on the response of member countries to these shocks. In addition, long-time members of the ERM have significantly more correlated shocks than other countries. These results conform to the thesis that the ERM represents a move by countries with relatively similar underlying shocks to coordinate macroeconomic policy.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 39, No. 2, June 1992.
September 1, 1991
Testing a Disequilibrium Model of Lending Rate Determination: The Case of Malaysia
Description: This study examines whether lending rates cleared the market for loans in Malaysia after interest rate liberalization. It is based on a theoretical model in which adverse selection and marginal cost pricing are brought together by the use of a quadratic loss function in the error correction format. This allows for the use of the cointegration methodology. Long-run tests support the model proposed in the paper, while rejecting part of the financial liberalization model. From the short-run results it is concluded that there is a large lag before lending rates respond to exogenous shocks, thus confirming that they do not fully clear the market for loans.
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1991
August 1, 1991
Growth, Distribution and Politics
Description: We start by arguing that to understand growth differences across countries and time, one needs to understand differences in public policies that affect the incentives for productive accumulation of capital, human capital, or technically useful knowledge. And to understand policy differences one needs to understand how political institutions aggregate conflicting interests into public policies. We then survey some recent work along these lines, which argues that more inequality leads to slower growth. Next, we illustrate some of the basic ideas of this work, by help of a simple model of taxation. We also present some econometric cross-country evidence, which is largely supportive of the basic ideas. We end by suggestions for further work.
August 1, 1991
Valuation and Treatment of Depletable Resources in the National Accounts
Description: To assess the feasibility of the national accounts treating as assets depletable resources extracted for sale, the paper examines three issues: 1. whether treating natural resources as assets when they are used requires symmetrical accounting when they enter economic reserves; 2. at what stage between existence in nature and extraction entry to reserves could be counted; and 3. how the value of the in-ground natural resource component could be determined. It suggests treating natural resources entering reserves as “imports” from the environmental account added to the capital account, registering additions to reserves at a stage involved in economic activities, and valuing reserves by procedures related to market price.