Working Papers
1991
October 1, 1991
Increasing Export Diversification in Commodity-Exporting Countries: A Theoretical Analysis
Description: This paper draws on the neoclassical theory of international trade to examine the limits of efficient export diversification in low-income, commodity-exporting countries. It demonstrates the fundamental importance of relative factor endowments among countries for determining the commodity composition of international trade flows under both certain and uncertain economic conditions. In recognition of the importance of international financial markets for risk-spreading and allocating resources efficiently under uncertainty, the paper emphasizes the importance of “open” economic policies towards international trade in financial assets as well as goods.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 39, No. 3, September 1992.
October 1, 1991
Persistence in the Variability of Daily Exchange Rates
Description: Rational speculation in foreign exchange trading is often assumed to dampen exchange rate fluctuations by bringing the market back to fundamentals. Nevertheless, information congestion provides incentives for traders to follow positive feedback strategies which result in persistent and volatile exchange rate behavior by magnifying the impact of exogenous shocks. Empirical evidence is presented which is consistent with such autocatalytic effects.
October 1, 1991
Taxation of Capital Gains: A Review of the Main Issues
Description: This paper reviews the main issues that needs to be addressed in the taxation of capital gains. The main focus of the paper is on the tax treatment of capital gains in the United States. The impact of inflation on asset values and the taxation of gains have led to calls for an inflation-adjusted taxation of capital gains. Others have called for the exclusion of a part of the nominal gains from taxation. This paper argues that if the exclusion method is used, the exclusion rate should increase as the holding period gets longer.
October 1, 1991
Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence From Developing Countries
Description: This paper examines the relationship between temporary terms of trade shocks and household saving in developing countries. It is first shown that, from a theoretical standpoint, this relationship is ambiguous: private saving may rise or fall in response to a transitory terms of trade shock, depending on the values of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution and the intratemporal elasticity of substitution between traded and nontraded goods. Empirical estimates of these two parameters are obtained using data from a sample of 13 developing countries, and then used to draw implications for the response of private saving to transitory terms of trade shocks.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 39, No. 3, September 1992.
October 1, 1991
Speculative Attacks and Models of Balance of Payments Crises
Description: This paper reviews recent developments in the theoretical and empirical analysis of balance-of-payments crises. A simple analytical model highlighting the process leading to such crises is first developed. The basic framework is then extended to deal with a variety of issues, such as: alternative post-collapse regimes, uncertainty, real sector effects, external borrowing and capital controls, imperfect asset substitutability, sticky prices, and endogenous policy switches. Empirical evidence on the collapse of exchange rate regimes is also examined, and the major implications of the analysis for macroeconomic policy discussed.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 39, No. 2, June 1992.
October 1, 1991
Soft Budget Constraints, Firm Commitments and the Social Safety Net
Description: It is shown that the inefficiencies created by the “soft” budget constraint, enjoyed by enterprises in Eastern Europe and elsewhere, will continue so long as governments are unable credibly to threaten not to bail out loss-makers. Commitment to a “hard” budget constraint can best be achieved by the institution of a suitable social safety net. The burden on the social safety net can be reduced by the (endogenous) development of financial markets.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 39, No. 2, June 1992.
October 1, 1991
Models of Inflation and the Costs of Disinflation
Description: This paper focuses on the output costs of disinflation. A model of inflation with both forward and backward elements seems to characterize reality. Such an inflation model is estimated using data for industrial countries, and the output costs of a disinflation path are calculated, first analytically in a simple theoretical model, then by simulation of a global, multi-region empirical model. The credibility of a preannounced path for money consistent with the lowest output loss is considered. An alternative, more credible policy may be to announce an exchange rate peg to a low inflation currency.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 39, No. 2, June 1992.
October 1, 1991
Assessing Target Zone Credibility: Mean Reversion and Devaluation Expectations in the EMS
Description: The paper presents estimates of devaluation expectations for six EMS currencies relative to the Deutsche mark, for the period March 1979-May 1990. The estimation method is simple and operational, and consistently generates sensible results. The estimates are constructed by the adjusting interest rate differentials by subtracting estimated expected rates of depreciation within the exchange rate band. The adjustment is nontrivial because exchange rates within the ERM bands display mean reversion rather than random walk (unit root) behavior. The adjustment is essential since the expected rates of depreciation are usually of about the same magnitude as the interest rate differentials.
October 1, 1991
Forecasting Accuracy of Crude Oil Futures Prices
Description: This paper undertakes an investigation into the efficiency of the crude oil futures market and the forecasting accuracy of futures prices. Efficiency of the market is analysed in terms of the expected excess returns to speculation in the futures market. Accuracy of futures prices is compared with that of forecasts using alternative techniques, including time series and econometric models, as well as judgemental forecasts. The paper also explores the predictive power of futures prices by comparing the forecasting accuracy of end-of-month prices with weekly and monthly averages, using a variety of different weighting schemes. Finally, the paper investigates whether the forecasts from using futures prices can be improved by incorporating information from other forecasting techniques.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 39, No. 2, June 1992.
October 1, 1991
Nominal Income Targeting: A Critical Evaluation
Description: This paper evaluates the proposal that government authorities ought to target nominal income. It begins by viewing the literature in some detail. It then undertakes a theoretical analysis of the proposal first for the small country and next for the large country. There is then a general discussion of various issues posed by nominal income targeting. Finally, the paper summarizes the empirical work to date. We show that traditional theoretical analysis tends to be too simple and overly biased in favor of nominal income targeting. When more realistic assumptions are made or econometric simulations are undertaken the case for nominal income targeting is substantially weakened but not, however, destroyed.