Working Papers
1992
January 1, 1992
Bank Insolvency and Stabilization in Eastern Europe
Description: The profound structural reform underway in Eastern Europe has revealed the weakness of the banking sector there; macroeconomic stability and other reforms are thereby threatened. After an overview of recent developments in the banking sectors of these countries, a model is developed that clarifies the role of banking in an emerging market economy, and the danger that the disturbances inherent to it may be magnified and prolonged by a banking collapse. The implication is that priority must be given to mobilizing fiscal resources to cover the costs of restructuring the banking sector.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 39, No. 4, December 1992.
January 1, 1992
Privatization in East Germany: A Survey of Current Issues
Description: This paper deals with the privatization, restructuring, and liquidation of East German industrial firms. A partnership model is suggested for privatization where the Government’s property trust (Treuhandanstait (THA)) is made a silent partner of the private investors. The application of a general scheme of wage subsidies is rejected in the paper. Furthermore, the paper argues against restructuring policies of the Government’s property trust and proposes to set decreasing limits on the trust’s finances for the years following 1993. The decreasing financial inflow will force the Government’s trust to close firms, and will also signal the commitment of the Government to liquidate the trust itself by, say, the year 2000.
January 1, 1992
International Comparisons of Money Demand: A Review Essay
Description: Many studies of the demand for money, covering a wide variety of economies, have demonstrated the importance of financial innovations and shifts in monetary policy regimes, but they have also illustrated the difficulty of measuring and assessing such changes. Because innovations and regime shifts have differed markedly across countries, international comparisons can help identify their effects. This paper reviews the literature on money demand comparisons, focusing primarily on industrial countries. It finds that innovations have had widespread effects, but also that the demand for money is not generally less stable now than it was before those changes occurred.
Notes: Reviews the literature on money demand comparisons, focusing primarily on industrial countries.
January 1, 1992
Household Demand for Money in Poland: Theory and Evidence
Description: This paper examines the household demand for narrow money in Poland during the 1980s. At that time, there were shortages, but informal trade in both goods and foreign exchange was common, and holdings of foreign currency were substantial. Household money demand in this environment is first examined at the theoretical level: a representative household’s holding of domestic and foreign money is analyzed in a cash-in-advance model in which domestic currency is needed to purchase goods in the official shops while either domestic or foreign currency can be used in the black market. This model gives rise to a formulation of money demand which is then estimated using household-level data from 1979 to 1988.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 39, No. 4, December 1992.
January 1, 1992
The Credibility of Nordic Exchange Rate Bands: 1987-1991
Description: The credibility of the exchange rate bands in the Nordic countries during 1987-91 is examined with two tests. The results suggest that the credibility of Finland’s exchange rate band within a twelve-month horizon could not be rejected except in the fall of 1991; however, the band lacked credibility within a five-year horizon throughout the period. Denmark’s and Norway’s bands lacked both short- and long-term credibility at the beginning of the period, but credibility could not be rejected from 1989 for Norway and as of 1990 for Denmark. The credibility of Sweden’s band within a one-year horizon could not be rejected up to fall 1989, but thereafter its credibility deteriorated sharply.
January 1, 1992
Stabilization and Structural Reform in Czechoslovakia: An Assessment of the First Stage
Description: This paper analyzes the Czechoslovak reform program which was launched on January 1, 1991. Under this program, Czechoslovakia has taken decisive steps to establish a market economy, while achieving price stability and a viable external position through restrictive financial policies. But there has been a sharp decline in output. The eventual output recovery is predicated on completing structural market reforms, such as the development of financial markets and the safeguard of their stability, privatization of large enterprises, minimizing government interference with economic signals, and the imposition of the “hard” budget constraint.
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