Working Papers
1992
March 1, 1992
Exchange Rate Flexibility, Volatility and the Patterns of Domestic and Foreign Direct Investment
Description: This paper investigates the factors determining the impact of exchange rate regimes on the behavior of domestic investment and foreign direct investment (FDI). Producers may diversify internationally in order to increase the flexibility of production. We characterize the possible equilibria in a macro model that allows for the presence of a short-run Phillips curve. It is shown that a fixed exchange rate regime is more conducive to FDI relative to a flexible exchange rate, and this conclusion applies for both real and nominal shocks. If the dominant shocks are nominal (real) we will observe a negative (a positive) correlation between exchange rate volatility and the level of investment.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 39, No. 4, December 1992.
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1992
February 1, 1992
Reserve Requirementson Bank Deposits a+L558s Implicit Taxes: A Case Study of Italy
Description: This paper analyzes the quasi-fiscal effects of Italy’s relatively high bank reserve requirements, against the background of growing pressure to align them with those of other EC countries. The paper develops an integrated accounting framework for the measurement of implicit and explicit taxes on the banking system and applies that framework to the Italian experience during the 1980s. Pointing to a lack of transparency in the yield and incidence of the reserve requirement tax, the results reinforce the case for lowering the attendant burden on the Italian banking system. It is estimated that that burden could be halved at a cost to the budget of no more than 0.2 percent of GDP.
February 1, 1992
A Taxon Gross Assets of Enterprises as a Form of Presumptive Taxation
Description: A tax on gross assets has been introduced in some developing countries where several factors (most notably, high inflation) enabled apparently viable enterprises to report losses for income tax purposes. The idea of a tax on the value of assets, rather than on the income that the assets generate, seems to have originated in the 17th century in Milan. It was more recently advocated by Luigi Einaudi and Maurice Allais, but their contributions have remained unknown in the Anglo-Saxon world. The economic implications of such a tax are analyzed in this paper. Special attention is devoted to efficiency and administrative aspects. Practical considerations suggest that the tax on gross assets serves as a minimum income tax rather than as a final tax.
February 1, 1992
Theory and Policy: A Commenton Dixit andon Current Tax Theory
Description: In a recent paper Professor Dixit criticized the argument that when collection lags characterize tax systems, recourse to inflationary finance should be minimized. He argued that, in such case, rather than minimizing recourse to inflationary finance, the rates of the commodity taxes should be adjusted to maintain them at an optimal level and, thus, to minimize welfare costs. This paper shows that the requirements for following Dixit’s policy prescription are almost impossible to meet. The paper argues that more attention should be paid by tax theorists to the constraints under which tax reforms are made.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 39, No. 4, December 1992.
February 1, 1992
A Quantitative Examination of Current Account Dynamics in Equilibrium Models of Barter Economies
Description: This paper provides a numerical analysis of an intertemporal equilibrium model of a small open, barter economy that is subject to random shocks affecting endowments, the terms of trade, and the real interest rate. Equilibrium stochastic processes for macroeconomic aggregates are computed and their properties are compared with observed stylized facts. The model mimics the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect, but cannot account for a countercyclical trade balance, the variability of the real exchange rate, and the income elasticity of imports. The results also show that the correlation between the trade balance and the terms of trade, given incomplete insurance markets, is sensitive to changes in preference parameters and in the persistence of exogenous shocks.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 39, No. 4, December 1992.
February 1, 1992
Does Sequencing of Privatization Matter in Reforming Planned Economies?
Description: Although a centerpiece of the reform process in Central and Eastern Europe, large-scale privatization cannot be undertaken all at once and policymakers inevitably face the choice of privatizing some sectors before others. This paper analyzes the allocative efficiency implications of alternate sequences of privatization in a reforming planned economy with two sectors—an input-producing upstream sector and a final goods-producing downstream sector. The model focuses on the link, through a market for intermediate inputs, between the two sectors. The impact of exogenous shocks to the two sectors are highlighted to show how the inflexibility of public firms in responding to shocks constrains the production response of private firms operating in perfectly as well as imperfectly competitive markets.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 39, No. 4, December 1992.
February 1, 1992
A Cross-Country Analysis of the Tax-Push Hypothesis
Description: This paper presents a microeconomic theoretical model of union optimizing behavior which is then used to test the relevance of the tax-push hypothesis for wage formation in nine Western European countries. Two factors—the compensation and the progressivity effects—are shown by the model to account for the effect (if any) of tax rates on wage formation. A wage equation tested for the period 1960-1988 shows that in general small open economies have negligible compensation and progressivity effects, while in larger economies direct, indirect and social security tax rates are transferred onto the real labor cost. All countries show a weakening of the tax shifting starting at the end of the 1970s or the beginning of the 1980s.