Working Papers
1992
July 1, 1992
The Dissolution of the Austro-Hungarian Empire: Lessons for Currency Reform
Description: This paper investigates the currency reforms undertaken subsequent to the dissolution of the Austro-Hungarian Empire in 1918. The reforms were motivated by the lack of coordination of monetary policy and the absence of a rule for sharing seigniorage. Because the Successor States’ reforms were not carried out simultaneously, individuals could choose where to convert their crowns based on where their real value was greatest. The cross-border flows of notes was substantial, to the detriment of Hungary which was last to reform. The Austrian and Hungarian currencies were stabilized only with the help of League of Nations financial programs.
Notes: Investigates currency reforms undertaken subsequent to the dissolution of the Austro-Hungarian Empire in 1918.
July 1, 1992
The Output Decline in the Aftermath of Reform: The Cases of Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, and Romania
Description: This paper analyzes the declines in economic activity experienced by Bulgaria, the Czech and Slovak Federal Republic (CSFR), and Romania in the period since the initiation of market-oriented reforms in these countries. The paper reviews developments in the three countries and empirically investigates two questions that are key to the interpretation of the output decline: First, to what extent does the output fall reflect “structural change” (or a reallocation of resources across sectors) rather than a conventional recession? Second, to what extent have demand-side or supply-side forces been dominant in generating the output decline?
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 40, No. 1, March 1993.
July 1, 1992
The Export Performance of Sub-Saharan Africa, 1970-19+L69390: A Survey
Description: The export performance of Sub-Saharan Africa has lagged behind that of developing countries in other regions for the past two decades, and total export proceeds have fallen significantly since 1980. Many factors explain this outcome, including continued concentration in slowly-growing non-fuel primary commodities and domestic economic policies that have discouraged new investment that could promote diversification and increased production of traditional crops. Diversification into new agricultural products and light manufactures could boost export earnings, but only if the region can compete successfully with existing producers elsewhere. In most countries this will require major structural reforms to create a more attractive economic environment.
July 1, 1992
Multi-Country Evidenceon the Effects of Macroeconomic, Financial and Trade Policieson Efficiency of Resource Utilization in the Developing Countries
Description: This study examines the effects of selected policies on economic efficiency in 81 developing countries by pooling cross-country data over various subperiods between 1961-90. An incremental output-capital ratio is the measure of economic efficiency, while the policy variables include: export orientation, size of the public sector, directed credit program through development bank lendings, financial depth, inflation rate, real interest rate, and real exchange rate distortion. The export-orientation, financial depth, and real interest rate are found to promote economic efficiency, while other policy variables are found to hinder it.
Notes: Examines the effects of selected policies on economic efficiency in 81 developing countries by pooling cross-country data over various subperiods between 1961-90.
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1992
June 1, 1992
A Simple Forecasting Accuracy Criterion Under Rational Expectations: Evidence From the World Economic Outlook and Time Series Models
Description: A simple criterion based on the properties of the forecast error is presented to evaluate the accuracy of forecasts. The efficiency conditions of an optimization problem are used to show that under rational expectations the standard statistical conditions are necessary, but not sufficient to ensure efficiency. This criterion is used to examine the accuracy of the World Economic Outlook projections of growth and inflation for the seven major industrial countries. Time series models are then estimated and the efficiency of the World Economic Outlook projections relative to a benchmark time series model is examined. A number of empirical tests suggest that the year ahead projections of growth and inflation in the World Economic Outlook are unbiased after 1982.
June 1, 1992
Price Liberalization in a Reforming Socialist Economy: A Search Equilibrium Approach
Description: A bilateral search model of the commodity market is formulated to study the effects of liberalizing prices in a reforming socialist economy. The main result is that if the competitive structure of the economy is not quickly modified to eliminate supply rents, price liberalization may be accompanied by substantial output losses. A role for tax policy in limiting output losses is identified.
June 1, 1992
Trends and Future Directions in Tax Policy Reform: A Latin American Perspective
Description: Tax reform in Latin America during the 1980s emphasized broad-based, low-rate consumption taxes over steeply progressive income and property taxes, primarily to simplify the tax structure and facilitate tax administration. While tax reform need not necessarily raise tax-to-GDP ratios, countries that undertook tax reform experienced a higher revenue gain in terms of GDP relative to those that did not. Tax reform issues during the 1990s will include a minimum income tax, alternative corporate taxes (cash flow tax, assets tax), capturing difficult tax bases (financial intermediation, property), environment taxes, extending withholding as a taxing mechanism, and tax harmonization.