Working Papers
January 1, 0001
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January 1, 0001
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1992
October 1, 1992
Implementation of Monetary Policy in Ems Countries Participating in the Exchange Rate Mechanism
Description: This paper investigates the issue of monetary interdependence among members of the European Monetary System over the period 1979–91 and the leadership role attributed to the German central bank in the process of monetary integration, and looks for possible changes in central banks’ behaviors. Econometric evidence supports somewhat the German leadership role but suggests also the development of an increased interdependence between French and German monetary policies after 1981–82; meanwhile, the Italian and more recently the Spanish central banks appear to have preserved a more significant measure of monetary autonomy.
October 1, 1992
Capital Inflows to Latin America: The 1970's and the 1990's
Description: During the past two years Latin America has received sizable international capital inflows. This paper compares the recent experience with that of the late 1970s. The analysis examines differences and similarities between the two episodes in three broad areas: domestic macroeconomic conditions in the recipient countries at the outset of both episodes, the behavior of the external factors that influence the international allocation of capital, and the response of key macroeconomic variables, such as the real exchange rate, reserves, and stock prices. The paper aims at assessing how vulnerable these economies are to an unexpected and swift reversal in capital inflows, and whether there are signs that the vulnerability has changed appreciably over time.
Notes: Paper presented at the Tenth World Congress of the International Economic Association held in Moscow in August 1992.
October 1, 1992
Coordinating Public Debt and Monetary Management During Financial Reforms
Description: The paper analyzes the interplay between public debt and monetary management during financial reforms, and provides suggestions on collaboration between the central bank and the treasury to achieve common objectives. It discusses monetary policy and public debt at the onset and through different phases of a financial reform and emphasizes that many objectives of public debt and monetary management are mutually supportive. It recommends the setting up of units to deal with public debt issues both at the treasury and the central bank, as well as a committee to coordinate public debt and monetary management.
Notes: Paper presented at the Second OECD Workshop on Government Securities and Debt Management in Central and Eastern Europe in Budapest, Hungary in June 1992.
October 1, 1992
Credibility Effects of Price Controls in Disinflation Programs
Description: This paper examines whether price controls may enhance the credibility of a disinflation program, using a framework in which agents behave strategically. The analysis indicates that a partial price freeze is not fully credible, and may result in inflation inertia. The authorities may be able to determine optimally the intensity of price controls so as to minimize the policy loss associated with a discretionary monetary strategy. But the optimal intensity of controls is shown to be significantly different from zero only if the cost of enforcing price ceilings is not too high, or if the weight attached to price distortions in the policymaker’s loss function is small.
October 1, 1992
Issues in Managing and Sequencing Financial Sector Reforms Lessons From Experiences in Five Developing Countries
Description: A review of the experience of five developing countries in reforming their financial systems illustrates the benefits and risks, and provides lessons on the factors which contribute to successful financial sector reforms. Financial sector reforms need to be supported by active monetary policy, and the adoption of new monetary control procedures early in the reform program; reforms should be sequenced consistently with the broader program of macroeconomic adjustment. The pace of liberalization of interest rates and credit should also take account of the solvency of financial and nonfinancial firms. A minimal system of prudential regulation is an essential element of successful financial sector reform.
October 1, 1992
Currency Substitution and Cross-Border Monetary Aggregation: Evidence From the G-7
Description: Is there a stable aggregate money demand relationship for Europe? If so, why, and if not, why not? These questions are important for the implementation of policy by a European central bank, as well as for the appropriate speed of transition to EMU. This paper addresses them in a multi-country empirical study of money demand for the G-7 countries during the period since 1973. It looks for evidence of currency substitution and tests the restrictions implied by cross-border aggregation within Europe.
Notes: A multi-country empirical study of money demand for the G-7 countries during the period since 1973.
October 1, 1992
Automating the Price Discovery Process: Some International Comparisons and Regulatory Implications
Description: Automated trade execution systems are examined with respect to the degree to which they automate the price discovery process. Seven levels of automation of price discovery are identified, and 47 systems are classified according to these criteria. Systems operating at various levels of automation are compared with respect to age, geographical location, and type of securities traded. Information provided to market participants, and asymmetries of information between traders with direct access to the automated market and outside investors also are examined. It is found, for example, that the degree of asymmetric information increases with the level of automation of price discovery. The potential for trading abuses related to prearranged trading, noncompetitive execution, and trading ahead of customers is analyzed for each level of automation. Certain levels of automation widen the opportunities for trading abuses in some respects, but may narrow them in others.
October 1, 1992
Private Sector Development in State-Dominated Economies
Description: The development of a competitive private sector is widely viewed as a central element in the economic transformation of central and eastern Europe. Despite significant reforms in these economies, however, state enterprises continue to produce a substantial share of output. This paper considers how the profitability of private firms is affected by the size of the state-owned sector. Closures that result in a decrease in the number of state-owned firms reduce total industrial output in the short run, but encourage the entry of private firms into the industry in the longer run and lead to an increase in total output. Policies that result in a depreciation of the real exchange rate or an improvement in the efficiency of credit markets will tend to increase output in the short run, but their effect may be attenuated in the long run.