Working Papers

February 1, 1993

Exchange-Rate Unification with Black Market Leakages: Russia 1992

Description: In 1992 Russia unified the multiple exchange rates that had applied to international transactions. This paper describes the multiple exchange rate system that existed in Russia prior to mid-1992 and undertakes a theoretical exploration of the effects of the exchange rate unification that took place in July 1992. The model developed here allows for leakages between official and black markets and permits flexibility of the exchange rates in both official and parallel currency markets. Within this multiple exchange rate system with black market leakages, we trace the dynamic effects on official and parallel foreign exchange markets of changes in the types of policy instruments associated with Russia’s exchange rate regime reform. These instruments include adjustments of pegged interbank market exchange rates, rates of foreign exchange surrender taxation, and rates of taxation of capital account transactions.

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January 1, 1993

High Real Interest Rates Under Financial Liberalization: Is there a Problem?

Description: Concerns were raised beginning in the 1980s about the possible detrimental effects of high positive real interest rates under financial liberalization. Using a sample of 28 countries that underwent financial liberalization since the 1970s, the paper examines the evidence about the emergence of high real interest rates and discusses the possible causes and likely effects. Some remedies--preferably preventive--are considered including macroeconormic stabilization, fiscal consolidation, improvements in prudential regulation and supervision of the financial sector, and introduction of an efficient management of indirect monetary policy instruments.

January 1, 1993

Working Paper Summaries (WP/92/49 - WP/92/112)

Description: The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.

Notes: Compilation of summaries of Working Papers released during July-December 1992.

January 1, 1993

Stabilization Programs and External Enforcement: Experience From the 1920's

Description: Credibility and financing problems are important reasons why countries may seek to involve external institutions in the design and implementation of stabilization programs. In particular, governments may rely on external institutions to ‘enforce’ programs that would otherwise lack credibility. This paper analyzes six European currency stabilizations sponsored by the League of Nations in the 1920s. It emphasizes the means by which the League provided a ‘commitment technology’ and enforced compliance, thereby helping to ensure successful stabilizations. Empirical evidence indicates that countries with greater credibility problems relied more heavily on external enforcement to stabilize their currencies.

Notes: Analyzes six European currency stabilizations sponsored by the League of Nations in the 1920s, namely Austria, Hungary, Greece, Bulgaria, Estonia and Danzig. Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 40, No. 3, September 1993.

January 1, 1993

Cash-Flow Tax

Description: The cash-flow tax has been proposed as an alternative to corporate income tax on grounds of clarity and simplicity in defining the tax base in the face of widespread departures from the comprehensive income tax in actual practice. Variants of the tax, with their advantages and disadvantages, demonstrate that it would require careful design. Simplicity is not an obvious property because of expectable administration problems related to tax avoidance and evasion through transfer pricing; to inflation adjustments; and to incompatibility with existing international tax regimes. Thus, the tax remains theoretically attractive but difficult to implement by a single--especially developing--country.

Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 40, No. 3, September 1993.

January 1, 1993

French-German Interest Rate Differentials and Time-Varying Realignment Risk

Description: This paper explores the determinants of expected rates of realignment of the French franc/Deutsche mark exchange rate during the period 1987-1991. It does so by first estimating expected parity changes and then relating these to economic variables that are believed to influence agents’ realignment expectations. Time-varying expected rates of realignment are estimated in two ways: one, by adjusting short-term euromarket interest rate differentials for the expected rate of change of the FF/DM exchange rate within the EMS fluctuation band and two, by the differential in the yield on long-term government bonds. The behavior of the exchange rate within the band is found to be consistent with mean reversion and the expected change is nontrivial. Thus, by filtering out the expected mean reversion within the band from short-term interest rate differentials more precise measures of expected changes in the central parity are obtained. Realignment expectations are found to be closely related to the evolution of fundamental economic variables and, for shorter horizons, the position of the franc in the fluctuation band.

Notes: Explores the determinants of expected rates of realignment of the French franc/Deutsche mark exchange rate during the period 1987-1991. Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 40, No. 3, September 1993.