Working Papers
1993
March 1, 1993
Savings, Growth and Capital Markets Imperfections: The Case of Borrowing Constraints
Description: This paper studies the effects that borrowing constraints have on savings and growth and argues that, though they increase savings, their effect on growth is ambiguous. Empirical evidence on the extent of borrowing constraints as well as savings, investment, human capital accumulation and growth performance for industrialized countries is presented. A simple model to show the effects of borrowing constraints on savings is developed. Then the model is extended to analyze the effects of borrowing constraints on human capital accumulation and growth. It is shown that borrowing constraints increase savings, but reduce human capital accumulation.
March 1, 1993
Stabilization Dynamics and Backward-Looking Contracts
Description: Exchange rate-based stabilizations often result in an initial output expansion. One explanation for this phenomenon has been that, in the presence of inflation inertia, a reduction in the nominal interest rate causes the domestic real interest rate to fall, thus increasing aggregate demand. This paper reexamines this issue in the context of an intertemporal optimizing model. In contrast to previous results, the analysis shows that, if the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is smaller than the elasticity of substitution between traded and home goods, a permanent reduction in the rate of devaluation leads to a fall in aggregate demand.
March 1, 1993
Evaluating the EMS and EMU Using Stochastic Simulations: Some Issues
Description: Evaluations of European monetary integration using model simulations have given conflicting results, and the paper attempts to elucidate the reasons for the differences. Several features stand out: how to model realignments; how monetary policy is set for individual countries or for Europe; and how large are risk premium shocks in exchange markets. We quantify the effects of different assumptions relating to these features using MULTIMOD.
March 1, 1993
The Demand for M1 in the United States: A Commenton Baba, Hendry, and Starr
Description: A recent paper by Baba, Hendry, and Starr presents an error-correction model of the demand for M1 in the United States, which shows a dramatic improvement in both fit and stability over earlier models. This note estimates an alternative model with the same data set and draws two conclusions: that the improvements are due more to the use of complex dynamics than to the introduction of variables representing financial innovation, and that some of the economic properties are not robust with respect to minor changes in specification.
March 1, 1993
A Primeron Tax Evasion
Description: Tax evasion is universal. It depends on the economic and tax structures, types of income, and social attitudes. The theory of tax evasion has limitations since it depends solely on the attitude toward risk with full information regarding the tax administration’s behavior. Methodologies for estimating tax evasion include predominantly estimating the underground economy, and comparing taxes declared with potential tax revenue calculated from national accounts. Actions in addressing tax evasion include use of withholding, presumptive and minimum taxes, selective auditing, penalties, and cross checks between taxes.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 40, No. 4, December 1993.
March 1, 1993
Military Expenditures 1972-1990: The Reasons Behind the Post-1985 Fall in World Military Spending
Description: World military expenditures have fallen by over 20 percent in proportion to GDP from 1985 to 1990. This study examines the determinants of military expenditures in 125 countries during 1972-90 to ascertain what factors may be behind the recent decreases. Economic decline among developing countries in the 1980s and among industrial countries in the later part of the decade emerges as one possible factor. A second is the move towards more democratic regimes, which could diminish support for the military. A third factor is the improved world security situation and the concomitant decrease in military aid by the former major cold war combatants.
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