Working Papers
1993
March 1, 1993
Determinants of Private Investment in Pakistan
Description: This paper investigates the determinants of private investment in Pakistan with special emphasis on the impact of government investment. Using annual data for the period 1973/74-1991/92, it is estimated that private investment was positively correlated to GDP growth, to credit extended to the private sector, and to government investment. When government investment is disaggregated into Its infrastructural and noninfrastructural components, the latter is found to be negatively correlated with private investment.
March 1, 1993
Public Expenditure Policy and the Environment: A Review and Synthesis
Description: Commonly cited environmental instruments in the legal, regulatory, and fiscal domains are intended primarily to address market failures to ensure that environmental degradation and resource use is contained to appropriate levels. However, in many instances, environmental degradation is rooted not in market failure, but rather in policy failure. This paper identifies areas of public expenditure policy that interact with the environment. It argues that a reform of certain types of subsidies, increased operations and maintenance expenditures, and a thorough environmental assessment of capital projects will tend to benefit the environment, thereby moving an economy towards ‘sustainable’ development.
March 1, 1993
Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption Revisited
Description: Some of the highly controversial questions in macroeconomics critically hinge on the value of a single parameter of consumer preference--the elasticity of intertemporal substitution. This paper provides new estimates of this parameter for individual G-7 and a panel of twenty OECD countries. We find that single equation GMM estimates are typically small and imprecise, consistent with Hall’s (1988) finding from the U.S. data. Estimation of a system of equations that takes into account the cross-equation restrictions implied by theory, however, generally gives larger and better determined values for the parameter. The panel procedure also yields relatively large estimates. Overall our multi-country results contradict the hypothesis of zero intertemporal substitution.
Notes: Study based on data from individual G-7 and a panel of twenty OECD countries.
March 1, 1993
Centralized Bargaining, Efficiency Wages, and Flexibility
Description: The main focus of the “wage bargaining” literature has been on the factors promoting real wage flexibility at the macro level. This paper, in contrast, examines the microeconomic issues of wage bargaining. More specifically, this paper appraises the following questions: (a) what are the conditions under which a firm prefers decentralized to centralized bargaining?, (b) what are the characteristic features of firms which prefer decentralized to centralized bargaining?, and (c) has the proportion of firms which prefer decentralized bargaining increased over time? These questions are examined in an efficiency wage model with insider-outsider features. This paper provides useful theoretical insights for understanding the issues involved in shifting from centralized to decentralized wage bargaining.
March 1, 1993
Conducting Monetary and Credit Policy in Countries of the Former Soviet Union: Some Issues and Options
Description: This paper surveys some of the principal monetary policy issues facing countries of the former U.S.S.R. The emphasis is on the immediate problem of imposing financial discipline in these economies, to bring down inflation quickly and decisively. Possible options for the essential nominal anchor are considered, together with the problems of selecting appropriate targets and instruments for monetary policy needed to make that anchor effective. It is argued that, if the stabilization effort is to be sustained, discipline must be imposed at the micro- as well as the macro-level, and the paper suggests a second-best approach to the allocation of credit in the absence of well-functioning credit markets.
March 1, 1993
Fiscal Policy and the Economic Restructuring of Economies in Transition
Description: This paper discusses major fiscal issues faced by the previously centrally planned economies in their transition to market economies. It focuses on three main topics: (a) the extent to which the budget deficit should be a guide to policy; (b) the reforms that must be carried out in tax legislation and tax administration; and (c) the required changes in public expenditure and in the setting up of institutions to manage public spending.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 40, No. 3, September 1993.
March 1, 1993
Monetary and Exchange Rate Arrangements for Nafta
Description: This paper considers the extent to which the North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA) meets the criteria for a common currency area. NAFTA is compared with the EC, a regional grouping for which initial plans for a monetary union are already in place. Most of the anticipated benefits from a monetary union in the EC apply with equal force to NAFTA. However, because the underlying disturbances are more diverse across members of NAFTA, the costs of abandoning the exchange rate instrument are likely to be higher. This is particularly true when NAFTA is compared to the EC’s continental core.
Notes: Studies the extent to which the North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA) meets the criteria for a common currency area, compared with the EC.
March 1, 1993
The Yield Curve and Real Activity
Description: The financial press frequently suggest that the shape of yield curve reflects information about the prospects of the economy. This paper attempts to formalize the link between the yield curve and the real economic activity. A closed-form formula for the term structure of interest rates is derived. It is shown that the term structure embodies the market’s expectation about changes in the macroeconomic fundamental--the growth in real aggregate output of the economy. The paper then documents the use of bond market data for predicting GDP growth in the G-7 industrial countries. The results suggest that a simple measure of the slope of the yield curve, namely the yield spread, serves as a good predictor of future economic growth. The out-of-sample forecasting performance of the yield spread compares favorably with that of the alternative stock price-based model and a univariate time series (ARMA) model. One practical implication is that it may be useful to add some measure of the term structure to the list of
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 40, No. 4, December 1993.
March 1, 1993
Economic Consequences of Lower Military Spending: Some Simulation Results
Description: The IMF MULTIMOD model is used to trace the economic impact of a 20 percent reduction in world military expenditures. GDP falls in the short run, however private consumption and investment rise, leading to an increase in GDP in the medium and long run. The estimated gains to economic welfare are substantial, particularly for developing countries, although most of these gains are realized in the long run. A positive international economic externality is found to exist, implying that for any given country the economic gains from a coordinated reduction in military expenditures exceed the gains from a unilateral reduction.
March 1, 1993
Economic Restructuring, Unemployment, and Growth in a Transition Economy
Description: This paper develops a model of the process of reallocation of labor from the state sector to the private sector. When growth is exogenously determined, we show that in the initial stages of transition unemployment will rise over time. After a critical stage in the transition process, restructuring is accompanied by a decline in unemployment. When growth is endogenously determined, and human capital is acquired by learning-by-doing, we show that whether restructuring eventually occurs is determined by the level of human capital in the private sector and the rate of unemployment. The effects of various shocks and government policies in affecting the costs, speed, and eventual outcome of restructuring are analyzed.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 40, No. 4, December 1993.