Working Papers
1993
May 1, 1993
Viet Nam: Reform and Stabilization, 1986-1992
Description: Viet Nam has made substantial progress in the transition to a market economy and toward financial stability since economic reform began in 1986. Piecemeal measures were adopted at first, followed by the launching of a bold and comprehensive program of structural reform in March 1989. Complemented by policies designed to achieve financial stabilization, the program met early success. Its continuation, however, was put at risk by the withdrawal of external financing by the former Soviet Union and the breakdown of preferential arrangements with the CMEA area. Although economic performance weakened temporarily in the wake of these shocks, the Vietnamese intensified the adjustment process. Viet Nam has since resumed its progress toward financial stability and sustained growth.
May 1, 1993
The Behavior of Nontradable Goods Prices in Europe: Evidence and Interpretation
Description: This paper examines the evolution of the relative price between tradable and nontradable goods in a group of European countries. A model of an open economy is used to analyze different factors that can account for an increase in the relative price of nontradable goods. These factors are: (a) faster technological progress in the tradable goods sector; (b) demand shifts toward nontradable goods; and (c) real wage pressures. The relevance of these factors is analyzed empirically for France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom.
May 1, 1993
The Relation Between Skill Levels and the Cyclical Variability of Employment, Hours, and Wages
Description: This paper uses micro panel data to examine differences in the cyclical variability of employment, hours, and real wages for skilled and unskilled workers. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we find that, at the aggregate level, skilled and unskilled workers are subject to essentially the same degree of cyclical variation in wages. However, important differences emerge in the patterns of employment and hours variation for skilled versus unskilled workers, especially when a college degree is used as a proxy for skills. We find that the quality of labor input per manhour tends to rise in recessions, thereby inducing a countercyclical bias in aggregate measures of the real wage. We also find substantial differences across industries in the cyclical variation of employment, hours, and wage differentials, which we interpret as indicative of important inter-industry differences in labor contracting.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 40, No. 4, December 1993.
May 1, 1993
On Improving Public Expenditure Policies for the Poor: Major Informational Requirements
Description: An improvement in the quality of public expenditures is needed in many countries, given binding macroeconomic and fiscal constraints, and poverty reduction and distributional objectives. This process involves a reassessment of methodology used for this purpose by countries and international agencies, and the data needed for improved decision making. This paper reviews methods that might be used by international agencies, such as the Fund and the Bank, jointly with a survey of data currently available, required improvements in the data currently available, and required improvements in the information base. The scope for improvements in governments' expenditure policy making is also considered.
May 1, 1993
Exports and Economic Development
Description: A robust empirical determinant of long-term economic growth in many developing countries has been the expansion and diversification of the export sector. The latter, in turn, has been influenced by capital accumulation and economic growth. The growth model developed here explores this interdependence in the context of the “new growth theory”. The analytical results are consistent with empirical regularities observed in the exports-economic growth linkages. The paper also derives a formula for the optimal rate of return to capital in the presence of learning effects and improvement of human resources brought about by export expansion and its interaction with saving and investment.
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1993
April 1, 1993
Private Saving, Public Saving, and the Inflation Tax: Another Look At An Old Issue
Description: The present paper provides an analytical discussion on a popular issue: the measurement problems associated with the inflation tax. It is well known that conventional national accounts definitions usually misplace the proceeds from the inflation tax: they are typically not subtracted from disposable income, and they are not included as part of the Government’s revenues “above the line.” Using a simple, perfect foresight monetary model developed by Calvo (1986, 1987), this paper analyzes the difference between macroeconomically relevant concepts of public and private saving, and their national accounts counterparts. The paper goes on to show that the national account aggregates create the impression that heavier reliance on the inflation tax on the part of the Government is associated with higher private saving, even in situations where the composition of government revenues does not have any effect on private saving.
April 1, 1993
Reserve Requirements and Monetary Management: An Introduction
Description: Reserve requirements are widely used by central banks as a means to improve monetary control, an instrument for policy implementation, a source of revenue, and a safeguard of bank liquidity. The effectiveness of reserve requirements in fulfilling these functions is reviewed, and the detailed modalities of their use are examined. Reserve requirements in a sample of developing countries are described.
April 1, 1993
Do Capital Flows Reflect Economic Fundamentals in Developing Countries?
Description: This paper proposes a methodology for testing whether capital flows to developing countries are determined by economic fundamentals or by purely speculative forces. We use the intertemporal optimizing approach to current account determination as our benchmark for judging the behavior of capital flows. According to this approach, capital flows should act as a buffer to smooth consumption in the face of temporary shocks to national cash flow, defined as output less investment less government expenditures. The results are encouraging. For a large sample of developing countries, economic fundamentals are indeed found to be the most important determinant of capital flows.
April 1, 1993
Net Foreign Assets and International Adjustment: The United States, Japan, and Germany
Description: This paper examines external adjustment in the United States, Japan and Germany from the perspective of net foreign asset positions. It asks two questions: What are, in the long run, the determinants of net foreign asset equilibrium? and: What are, in the short run, some of the adjustment mechanisms sustaining that equilibrium? An analysis of post-war data produces two insights. First, using a cointegration approach, the existence of long-run net foreign asset equilibrium can be identified: it is a function of demographic variables and public debt. Second, deviations from long-run equilibrium give rise to feedback through different components of domestic absorption in the three countries.