Working Papers
1993
June 1, 1993
Lessons in Fiscal Consolidation for the Successor States of the Soviet Union
Description: This paper reviews lessons in fiscal consolidation for the former Soviet Union that emerge from the experience of Central and Eastern European economies in transition. A central lesson is the need to support the macroeconomic stabilization with a front-loaded fiscal adjustment. Consistent with this adjustment path, structural reform in the tax and expenditure areas should be aimed at allocative efficiency and fairness, and its sequencing be predicated largely on administrative constraints. In the face of the uncertainty of fiscal projections, formulation of contingency measures is necessary. In addition, elimination of submerged fiscal imbalances, stemming from quasi-fiscal activities of state-owned nonfinancial enterprises and financial institutions, is just as important as correcting the measured budget deficit.
Notes: Reviews lessons in fiscal consolidation for the former Soviet Union that emerge from the experience of Central and Eastern European economies in transition.
June 1, 1993
An Analytical Framework of Environmental Issues
Description: Environmental effects which were insignificant in the past, when the fewer concentrations of population or products of modern technology allowed the vast absorptive capacity of nature to act as a sink, are quite evident today--in the pollution of air or water, the overuse of potentially renewable fishing or forestry resources, or the wasteful extraction of nonrenewable, mineral, resources. To contribute to an overall understanding of environmental issues, this paper sets out a general analytical framework encompassing the physical character of environmental problems, the behavioral factors that contribute to them, and the principal approaches to their prevention and correction.
June 1, 1993
Revisiting Japan's External Adjustment Since 1985
Description: The factors that explain Japan’s external performance since the mid-1980s are controversial. While the current account surplus eventually declined following exchange rate changes in 1985-86, a widening since 1990 has led to renewed scepticism about the role of relative price movements in bringing about external adjustment. This paper revisits the post-1985 experience to determine whether it can be explained by traditional factors. The results indicate that, over the period as a whole, the behavior of trade volumes and prices was similar to that predicted by traditional relationships. In particular, relative price movements played an important role in reducing the surplus: in their absence, it would have widened further.
June 1, 1993
Public and Private Investment and the Convergence of Per Capita Incomes in Developing Countries
Description: This paper examines the extent to which there has been convergence in real per capita incomes across developing countries during the last two decades. In the analysis particular emphasis is placed on the separate roles played by private and public sector investment in determining both the extent and the speed of convergence. The paper also considers the importance of the stock of human capital, trade orientation, and foreign direct investment in the long-run growth process. Empirical tests are carried out for a large sample of 95 developing countries over the period 1970-90. The results provide support for the notion of differential effects of public and private investment on long-term growth, as well as for the convergence hypothesis.
Notes: Empirical tests are carried out for a large sample of 95 developing countries over the period 1970-90.
June 1, 1993
Introduction of a New National Currency: Policy, Institutional, and Technical Issues
Description: In the last few years, a number of countries in the Former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe have become independent or regained their independence. Many have chosen to issue their own currencies and more are likely to do so. This paper draws on these and earlier experiences in order to summarize the main policy and institutional arrangements necessary for the introduction of a new currency and to discuss the key features of, and procedures for, the conversion. The paper is designed as a working document for those involved with currency reforms to help ensure that all the necessary steps are taken prior to, during, and immediately after the introduction of a new currency. The body of the paper is in four parts. First, the main macroeconomic and operational measures required to prepare for the orderly transition to the new currency are discussed, including decisions regarding the choice of exchange regime, the issuance of coupons and the costs and benefits of currency reforms. The next section covers issues relating to the production of the new currency bank notes. Next, the main features and terms of the conversion are discussed, as well as certain special issues such as speculative inflows and the treatment of banks’ customers and old currency contracts. The last section covers the operation of the foreign exchange market and maintenance of exchange rate stability in the period immediately following the introduction of the new currency. The appendix covers the technical aspects of currency handling, accounting and management.
June 1, 1993
Deer Hunting: Misalignment, Debt Accumulation, and Desired Equilibrium Exchange Rates
Description: This paper deals with hysteresis in the desired equilibrium exchange rate (DEER) arising from misalignment. When the actual real exchange rate departs from its DEER value, current account realizations--and consequently, debt service obligations--will differ from those assumed in the initial DEER calculation, necessitating its recomputation. The paper derives a formal expression for this hysteresis effect in the DEER, studies the convergence properties of a system in which the evolution of actual exchange rates depends on the DEER and provides illustrative calculations of its historical significance. Finally, the paper derives and applies rules of thumb for computing the hysteresis effect when considering the rate of approach of an exchange rate to its DEER value.
Notes: This paper deals with hysteresis in the desired equilibrium exchange rate (DEER) arising from misalignment.
June 1, 1993
Price Reform and Durable Goods in the Transition to a Market Economy
Description: The paper examines the short- and long-term effects of price liberalization in a reforming socialist economy. The analysis is based on an optimizing framework that highlights hoarding behavior and the existence of parallel goods markets. The behavior of official and parallel market prices, stock of durables, and the velocity of money in the transition period between reform announcement and reform implementation is characterized, in the presence and absence of uncertainty about the transition date.
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1993
May 1, 1993
Poland: The Social Safety Net During the Transition
Description: This paper argues that the brunt of the reform-induced increase in Polish social expenditures has been borne by social insurance arrangements (mainly pensions and unemployment compensation) rather than by social assistance schemes targeted to the poor or more temporary social safety net schemes. This is largely due to ease of access to social security and its more attractive benefit structure. Much of recent social expenditure reform had an ad-hoc nature and was driven by the need to alleviate looming financial distress. A major policy challenge is to avoid a further burdening of social security by needs that should be addressed by basic income support and emergency assistance policies or by general transfers (e.g., family allowances). Current reform needs are illustrated by using unemployment benefits and pensions as examples.
May 1, 1993
Toward An Economic Theory of Multilateral Development Banking
Description: This paper addresses an apparent lack of economic theory in the analysis of multilateral development bank (MDB) behavior. A simple comparative statics model that is adapted from the credit union literature is used to predict potential areas of conflict, agreement, and indifference between MDB member countries, analyze lending policies against the background of distributional conflicts, and show how various institutional reforms may improve efficiency and overall member country benefits.