Working Papers
1993
November 1, 1993
Labor Market Aspects of Industrial Restructuring in Canada
Description: This note examines recent developments in the Canadian labor market to provide a partial assessment of the magnitude and nature of industrial restructuring in Canada. The implications of industrial restructuring for the medium- and long-term prospects for the Canadian economy are examined. The evidence presented in this note suggests that the recent increases in labor productivity may represent a cyclical phenomenon rather than a permanent increase in the rate of growth of productivity.
November 1, 1993
On Credible Disinflation
Description: We study the effects of a credible, gradual exchange rate based disinflation program in a two sector economy. After an initial real exchange rate depreciation, the reductions in the rate of devaluation reduce the monetary wedge generated by a cash in advance constraint, leading to a gradual increase in absorption that yields progressive real exchange rate appreciations and current account deficits. An initial boom in economic activity is not followed by a later contraction, as labor supply expands during the whole length of the program.
November 1, 1993
Price Controls and Electoral Cycles
Description: This paper studies the interactions between electoral considerations and the imposition of price controls by opportunistic policymakers. The analysis shows that a policy cycle emerges in which price controls are imposed in periods leading to the election, and removed immediately afterwards. The shape of the cycle is shown to depend on the periodicity of elections, the relative weight attached by the public to inflation as opposed to the macroeconomic distortions associated with price controls, the nature of wage contracts, and the degree of uncertainty about the term in office.
November 1, 1993
Financial Liberalization and the Information Content of Money in Indonesia, Korea, and the Philippines
Description: Using a VAR approach, this paper studies the relationship between money, output, and prices in a group of Pacific Basin countries that underwent financial sector reform during the 1980s: Indonesia, Korea, and the Philippines. Special attention is paid to assessing the information content of money. Money was found to contain valuable advance information on output and prices in Korea, on prices only in the Philippines, and did not contain any advance information in Indonesia. The introduction of financial sector reform was not found to lead to a structural break in the price and output equations; however, the information content of money was affected. Further tests show that exchange and interest rates—variables that gained flexibility with the reforms—contain valuable information about future developments in prices in Korea and the Philippines.
November 1, 1993
Monetary Instruments and their Use During the Transition From a Centrally Planned to a Market Economy
Description: This paper discusses different instruments of monetary policy, and in particular the choice between direct and indirect instruments. It identifies the main characteristics of a country’s financial system that should be considered in selecting monetary instruments, and analyzes how these characteristics should influence that selection in countries that are progressing from a state-controlled to a market economy. The characteristics of the financial system during the initial stage of the transition sometimes favor relatively direct instruments. At this stage market-based variants of direct instruments may combine the necessary effectiveness in reducing monetary expansion with the need to introduce and stimulate competition in the financial markets. During this stage indirect instruments can be developed and tested (“belt and braces” approach). In later stages, as experience is gained, these indirect instruments can gradually replace the more direct controls.
November 1, 1993
The Impact of Worldwide Military Spending Cutson Developing Countries
Description: This paper investigates the economic impact of a coordinated reduction in military expenditures of 20 percent using a specially modified version of the MULTIMOD world economic model. Simulation results indicate that in developing countries the present value of consumption increases by 46 percent of 1992 GDP, compared to military expenditures cuts, in present value terms, of 33 percent of 1992 GDP. The gains reflect both the release of domestic resources and a positive international economic externality due to enhanced trade and lower world interest rates. Accordingly, the net debtor developing country gains exceed those of industrial countries. Examination of individual developing country economies confirms the significance of the external trade effect on the pattern and level of gains.
November 1, 1993
Japanese Banks and the Asset Price "Bubble"
Description: With the recent collapse of the asset price “bubble,” Japanese banks encountered significant pressure from both a sharp decline in the value of equity holdings and a marked increase in bad loans. In August 1992, the Government initiated measures that stabilized equity prices and assisted banks in managing their nonperforming loans. While the major banks disclosed that 4.6 percent of their total loans were nonperforming at the end of FY 1992, a mechanical estimate of all banks’ nonperforming and restructured loans is 6-7 percent of their total loans--a serious yet manageable problem. The main policy implications are to ensure the reasonably prompt resolution of the bad loan problem and to enhance market discipline to prevent its recurrence.
November 1, 1993
International RandD Spillovers
Description: The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.
Notes: Study based on a pooled data set of 22 countries during 1970-90.
November 1, 1993
Devaluation and Competitiveness in a Small Open Economy: Ireland 1987-1993
Description: This paper studies market expectations of a devaluation of the Irish pound from 1987 to 1993 and relates them to the evolution of Ireland’s competitiveness over the same period. Changes in expectations of the currency’s devaluation can be explained largely by developments outside Ireland, particularly by past and anticipated movements of sterling. The evolution of Ireland’s real exchange rate over the same period is also found to be strongly linked to sterling’s fluctuations, even after adjusting for sterling-insensitive trade between Ireland and the United Kingdom, and despite the significant progress toward trade diversification recorded by Ireland during the 1980s. The devaluation of the Irish pound in January 1993 is estimated to exceed investors’ realignment expectations at that time as well as the loss of Irish competitiveness since the beginning of the ERM crisis in the summer of 1992. This “excess devaluation” helps explain subsequent large capital inflows and the Irish pound’s smooth transition to the wide ERM band in August 1993.
November 1, 1993
Supply-Side Economics in an Integrated World Economy
Description: The macroeconomic effects of changes in tax and expenditure policies are examined in the context of the competitive equilibrium of a two-country, two-sector model of an integrated world economy. Governments finance purchases and net transfers of tradable and nontradable goods by imposing distortionary taxes on factor incomes and consumption. The model is parameterized and calibrated using data from large industrial economies, including estimates of effective tax rates. Numerical simulations provide estimates of the welfare costs associated with existing distortionary taxes and of the potential gains linked to a more efficient use of these taxes. Welfare gains from tax reforms favoring indirect taxation are substantial. The effects of permanent changes in expenditures depend on their sectoral allocation across tradables and nontradables and on whether they are debtor tax-financed. Trade in goods and assets is very sensitive to fiscal policy changes, but aggregate consumption patterns and welfare implications are not.