Working Papers
1994
January 1, 1994
Endogenous Time Preference and Endogenous Growth
Description: The present paper develops a one-sector aggregate endogenous growth model with intertemporal preference dependence. The resultant model possesses the fundamental property of growth convergence, in the sense that countries with identical parameters regarding technology, preference, and government policy will converge to a steady state with the same (positive) growth rate. A notable tax policy implication of the model is that, even in the absence of externalities, the growth effects of an income tax are shown to be a priori ambiguous and dependent on the relative magnitudes of the tax rate and the tax elasticity of the savings rate.
January 1, 1994
Working Paper Summaries (WP/93/55 - WP/93/95)
Description: This compilation of summaries of Working Papers released during July-December 1993 is being issued as a part of the Working Paper series. It is designed to provide the reader with an overview of the research work performed by the staff during the period. Authors of Working Papers are normally staff members of the Fund or consultants, although on occasion outside authors may collaborate with a staff member in writing a paper. The views expressed in the Working Papers or their summaries are, however, those of the authors and should not necessarily be interpreted as representing the views of the Fund. Copies of individual Working Papers and information on subscriptions to the annual series of Working Papers may be obtained from IMF Publication Services, International Monetary Fund, 700 19th Street N.W., Washington, D.C. 20431. Telephone: (202) 623-7430 Telefax: (202) 623-7201
Notes: Compilation of summaries of Working Papers released during July-December 1993.
January 1, 1994
Real Estate Price Inflation, Monetary Policy, and Expectations in the United States and Japan
Description: During the mid- to late 1980s, inflationary pressures were highly concentrated in asset markets in many industrial countries. This paper discusses why this may have occurred and then develops a forward-looking supply and demand model of the real estate market in which equilibrium prices depend on price expectations, monetary conditions, income, returns to alternative assets, and construction costs. In this model, the current equilibrium price is determined by expectations formed in different time periods by consumers and producers. The model and its more generalized dynamic specifications are estimated by maximum-likelihood methods. The empirical results do not reject the view that the relationship between real estate values and monetary policy was altered in 1980s.
January 1, 1994
Shortages Under Free Prices: The Case of Ukraine in 1992
Description: This paper examines the coexistence of free prices and shortages for a range of consumer goods in Ukraine during 1992. Enterprises making consumer goods were substantially free to set market-clearing prices. Yet, Ukraine’s official consumer market experienced continued shortages, while the same goods traded at higher prices in parallel markets. The paper advances a model of enterprise behavior in an environment of central allocation of inputs at preferential prices. We show that central allocation of key inputs according to perceived “need” creates incentives for excess demand to be perpetuated despite formal price liberalization. The analysis brings forth the importance of abolishing allocation mechanisms for price liberalization to bring its full efficiency effects.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 41, No. 3, September 1994.
January 1, 1994
Export Instability and the External Balance in Developing Countries
Description: Uncertainty about the export earnings accruing to a country (sometimes referred to as export instability) is an important source of macroeconomic uncertainty in many developing countries. Theory predicts that countries should react to increases in this form of uncertainty by increasing their level of savings. The resulting asset accumulations would then act as the country’s insurance against the greater riskiness in its income stream. The paper tests this implication for a large sample of developing countries. In general, the results suggest that developing countries have indeed responded to increases in export instability by building up precautionary savings balances.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 41, No. 2, June 1994.
January 1, 1994
Commodity Prices: Cyclical Weakness or Secular Decline?
Description: Primary commodities still account for the bulk of exports in many developing countries. However, real commodity prices have been declining almost continuously since the early 1980s and there is evidence of renewed weakness. The appropriate policy response to a terms of trade shock depends importantly on whether the shock is perceived to be temporary or permanent. Our results indicate that the recent weakness in commodity prices is mostly of a secular nature, stressing the need for commodity exporting countries to concentrate on export diversification and other structural policies. There is, however, scope for stabilization funds and the use of hedging strategies since the evidence also suggests commodity prices have become more volatile.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 41, No. 2, June 1994.
January 1, 1994
Comparative Advantage, Exchange Rates, and G-7 Sectoral Trade Balances
Description: This paper uses a Ricardian framework to clarify the role of microeconomic and macroeconomic factors governing the time series and cross-section behavior of sectoral trade balances. Unit labor costs and trade balances are calculated for several sectors for the seven major industrial countries. The time series and cross-section variation in sectoral unit labor costs is decomposed into relative productivity, wage differentials, and exchange rate variations. The main findings are that changes over time in sectoral trade balances, especially for the United States and Japan, are quite well explained by the evolution of unit labor cost, suggesting that trade patterns conform to comparative advantage. The cross-section results are, however, less conclusive.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 41, No. 2, June 1994.
January 1, 1994
The U.S. Public Debt: Implications for Growth
Description: The increase in the U.S. public debt over the past twelve years raises questions about its implications for investment and economic growth. This paper places these developments within an international and historical context and quantitatively examines the implications of various measures of the current U.S. public debt-to-GDP ratio on economic growth. The analysis is undertaken through extensions of recently developed endogenous growth models. The results suggest that while higher levels of the public debt may affect long-run economic growth negatively, the order of magnitude is not large enough to be a cause for serious concern.
January 1, 1994
Long Memory Processes and Chronic Inflation: Detecting Homogeneous Components in a Linear Rational Expectation Model
Description: This paper is an empirical study of the links between monetary variables and inflation based on Cagan’s equation and its rational expectations solution, when the forcing variable is a fractionally integrated process. As demonstrated by Hamilton and Whiteman, the existence of bubbles and other extraneous influences can be detected only by verifying the difference in the order of integration between the monetary base and the price level series. This paper shows that a fractionally differenced model overcomes Evans’ critique of this test and that chronic inflation is essentially a monetary phenomenon caused by fiscal imbalance.
Notes: The empirical analysis for six countries, Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, Peru, and Former Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia is included. Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 41, No. 3, September 1994.
January 1, 1994
ERM Money Supplies and the Transition to EMU
Description: Stage 2 of monetary union in the Europe is to involve greater monetary cooperation; the paper examines the case for using the M3 money supply aggregated across “core ERM” countries- -those with low inflation and absence of realignments- -as a vehicle for that cooperation. First, the existence of a satisfactory long-run money demand relationship and short-run dynamic equation is verified. The resulting demand equations have at least as satisfactory econometric properties as those for France and Germany separately. Second, the predictive power of the core-ERM aggregate relative to French and German inflation is examined; it is shown that the aggregate helps to predict German inflation, over and above the predictive power of German M3. Thus, core-ERM M3 has value as an indicator for the anchor country in hitting its own domestic objective, quite separate from any concern about economic developments in neighboring countries.