Working Papers
1994
March 1, 1994
Tax Policy Implications in Endogenous Growth Models
Description: This paper surveys the tax policy implications in various endogenous growth models. The focus is on the long-run growth effects of income, consumption, and investment taxation in models whose engine of growth is the accumulation of human capital, technological innovation, and/or public infrastructure. The results depend on model specifications. This paper also reviews quantitative results from cross-country regressions and simulations, and indicates some statistical and methodological problems to which they are subject. Tax policy implications in endogenous growth models both with tax policy endogenously determined by a political process and with international capital mobility are also discussed.
March 1, 1994
Drift in Producer Price Indexes for the Former Soviet Union (FSU) Countries
Description: The purpose of this paper is to show that, under the price fluctuations that characterize most transition economies, the commonly used chain index derived from the published month-to-month price change of the PPI in some cases dramatically overstates the rate of price inflation. The analysis is based in part on a seminal paper by Szulc, who studies the problem of drift for a wide class of index formulae, and in part on the observations of price movements made by the Fund’s missions. Greatest during the year 1992, the drift declines with slower rates of inflation and, possibly, with changing patterns of price increases, but is still important for countries such as Russia, where monthly inflation continues to run well into the double digits.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 41, No. 3, September 1994.
March 1, 1994
International Evidenceon Tradables and Nontradables Inflation
Description: Using 1970-85 sectoral data for the OECD we find that inflation in nontradable good exceeds inflation in tradables. We identify a demand shift towards nontradables and faster growth of total factor productivity in the tradable goods sector as the prime causes of the differential inflation. In addition, disinflation attempts and the exchange rate regime appear to have exerted significant influence on the relative inflation rate.
Notes: Study based on 1970-84 sectoral data for the OECD.
March 1, 1994
Competitiveness Indicators: A Theoretical and Empirical Assessment
Description: This paper discusses five indicators of competitiveness: real exchange rates based on consumer price indices, export unit values of manufacturing goods, the relative price of traded to nontraded goods, normalized unit labor costs in manufacturing, and the ratio of normalized unit labor costs to value-added deflators in manufacturing. It discusses how each of these measures is associated with changes in a country’s balance of trade in goods and nonfactor services and examines the relationship among these indicators. It then examines the empirical performance of three of the indicators in terms of their ability to explain trade flows.
March 1, 1994
Core Functional Requirements for Fiscal Management Systems
Description: This paper presents a framework for planning the development of computerized government budgeting and accounting systems in economies in transition and developing economies. It argues that a comprehensive framework is needed to enable fiscal management issues to be addressed effectively, then outlines a methodology for planning systems development and proposes strategies for implementing the methodology in transitional and developing economies.
March 1, 1994
An Overview of the Japanese Distribution System: The Case of the Automobile Industry
Description: This paper surveys the recent literature on the Japanese distribution system to consider two propositions: first, that the system is inefficient, and second that prices of imported products tend to be higher in Japan than in other markets. Most of the literature demonstrates that the system is efficient. However, the efficiency has not necessarily resulted in high social welfare as consumers have had limited access to various product lines or paid high prices for some products. This paper examines the distribution system in the automobile industry to promote understanding about the impacts of the system on price differentials.
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1994
February 1, 1994
Targeting the Real Exchange Rate: Theory and Evidence
Description: This paper presents a theoretical and empirical analysis of policies aimed at setting a more depreciated level of the real exchange rate. An intertemporal optimizing model suggests that, in the absence of changes in fiscal policy, a more depreciated level of the real exchange can only be attained temporarily. This can be achieved by means of higher inflation and/or higher real interest rates, depending on the degree of capital mobility. Evidence for Brazil, Chile, and Colombia supports the model’s prediction that undervalued real exchange rates are associated with higher inflation.
February 1, 1994
Realignment Expectations, Forward Rate Bias, and Sterilized Intervention in an Adjustable Peg Exchange Rate Model with Policy Optimization
Description: The paper models an adjustable peg exchange rate arrangement as a policy rule with an escape clause under which the timing and magnitudes of realignments are the outcomes of policy optimization decisions. Under the assumptions that market participants are rational, risk averse, and fully informed about the incentives of policymakers, the analysis focuses on the implications for relating realignment expectations to the state variables that enter the policy objective function, for modeling the bias in using forward exchange rates to predict future spot rates, and for characterizing the effectiveness of sterilized intervention.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 41, No. 3, September 1994.
February 1, 1994
Witholding Taxes and the Cost of Public Debt
Description: Several industrialized countries impose withholding taxes on public interest accruing to nonresidents. This paper examines the international incidence of such withholding taxes by estimating to what extent these taxes raise the cost of government borrowing. It is found that the pretax interest rate is most sensitive to the tax withheld on Japanese investors. In particular, the gross-up is about half of this tax, which suggests that about half is returned to the investor in the form of foreign tax credits. The extent of the gross-up rises over the 1989-93 period, which indicates that in recent years foreign tax credits have been available to a lesser extent.