Working Papers
1994
May 1, 1994
Issues Concerning Nominal Anchors for Monetary Policy
Description: This paper presents a selective survey of issues relevant to the choice of nominal anchors for monetary policy. Section I reviews long price-level histories for the United Kingdom and United States, which reveal that the price level behaved very differently following WWII in these countries than it had done in previous post-war experiences. In particular following WWII the responsibilities of monetary policy expanded to encompass a business- cycle stabilization role and the nominal anchor shifted from the fixed anchor or price-level stability to the moving anchor of inflation-rate stability. The remaining sections of the paper review some of the considerations that are relevant to setting the average inflation rate in countries without a fixed nominal anchor.
Notes: Reviews long price-level histories for the United Kingdom and United States.
May 1, 1994
Why is Unemployment in France so High?
Description: High and persistent unemployment, as well as its composition, e.g., high youth unemployment, suggests underlying structural problems in the French labor market. Comparisons with other industrial countries, as well as time series and cross-section empirical evidence, point to a number of potential causes of structural unemployment in France. These Include the generosity of long-term relative to short-term unemployment benefits, the minimum wage, the level of employers’ tax wedge, skills mismatch, and the cost of capital. The paper assesses recent labor market measures in France that are considered, on the whole, as a step in the right direction, and puts forward a number of additional possible measures which could help to ensure that when the economic recovery gathers pace, unemployment will decline more quickly and more substantially than in the past.
May 1, 1994
Varieties of Monetary Reforms
Description: This paper surveys three types of monetary arrangements. It considers how the choice of an exchange rate regime, the degree of central bank independence, or choice of currency unions or boards depends not only on economic considerations but also on political economy considerations. In economic terms, the choice of monetary regime will depend on the policy that is best suited to reducing or stabilizing inflation. In political economy terms, the choice of monetary arrangement will ultimately depend on how independent a country wishes to be from shocks emanating from the rest of the world and the weight politicians attach to influencing economic conditions in their own country.
May 1, 1994
Macroeconomic Adjustment with Segmented Labor Markets
Description: This paper analyzes the macroeconomic effects of fiscal and labor market policies in developing countries. The basic framework considers a small open economy with a large informal production sector and a heterogeneous work force. The labor market is segmented as a result of efficiency considerations and minimum wage laws. The basic model is then extended to account for unemployment benefits, income taxation, and imperfect labor mobility across sectors. The analysis indicates, among other results, that a reduction in unemployement benefits has a positive effect on output of tradable goods by lowering both the level of efficiency wages and the relative rent captured by skilled workers.
May 1, 1994
The Arab Maghreb Union
Description: The Founding Treaty of the Arab Maghreb Union (AMU), signed in February 1989, calls for a strengthening of all ties among its member states (Algeria, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, and Tunisia), including a gradual move toward free circulation of goods, services, and factors of production among them. The paper provides an overview of the economic conditions in the AMU member countries, describes the institutional arrangements under the AMU, and assesses the progress made in attaining the economic objectives of the Treaty. In so doing, the paper identifies the main obstacles encountered in making progress toward the objectives of the Treaty and reviews actions that need to be taken to make further progress in the coming years. In that context, the paper also examines the relationship of the AMU countries with the European Union (EU).
Notes: The paper also examines the relationship of the Arab Maghreb Union (AMU) countries with the European Union.
May 1, 1994
Inter-Enterprise Arrears in a Post-Command Economy: Thoughts From a Romanian Perspective
Description: The paper considers that strain is the main source of inter-enterprise arrears in post-command economies. Strain can be linked with the structure of the economy and the size of resource misallocation. Inter-enterprise arrears “soften” markets and operate as a self-protecting device against the pressure for change. As temporary quasi-inside money, arrears fuel inflation. A paradox of policy credibility in undertaking structural adjustment is emphasized. Rising exports can be a possible side effect of arrears and a constraining factor: the size of the economy is seen as affecting the relationship between arrears and exports. An operational framework for containing arrears would Include: “breaking up” structure; Imposing a disciplining “straitjacket” on structure; industrial policy (“picking losers among losers”) and targeted external assistance. Containing arrears can not be a one shot policy-drive; here one deals with a process that will overlap in time with the evolving environment.
May 1, 1994
Pensions, Price Shocks, and Macroeconomic Stability in Transition Economies: Illustrations From Belarus
Description: In many countries of the former Soviet Union, pensioners form a large and vulnerable group of the population, with pensions fixed in nominal terms. Attempts to “protect” this group have included a revaluation of benefits for retirees and the introduction of indexation arrangements based on recent wage and price growth. In this paper, lagged indexation arrangements are shown to have large destabilizing effects that can potentially jeopardize the macroeconomic adjustment effort, particularly as inflation begins to decelerate. Some long-term problems relating to the aging of the population and associated policies are also discussed. Illustrative examples from Belarus are presented.
May 1, 1994
Refinance Instruments: Lessons From their Use in Some Industrialized Countries
Description: Many central banks around the world are gradually shifting from a system of direct controls towards the implementation of monetary policy through market-oriented instruments, including refinance facilities. This paper reviews the use of refinance instruments in a sample of industrialized countries, and discusses how central banks use them to influence short-term interest rates and to manage banks’ reserves. Some lessons are suggested for their implementation in developing countries or economies in transition.
May 1, 1994
The Trade and Welfare Consequences of U.S. Export-Enhancing Tax Provisions
Description: The U.S. tax code contains two provisions that encourage exports by reducing the U.S. corporate income tax on export profits. An applied general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy is used to estimate the trade and welfare consequences of eliminating both tax provisions. We find that the provisions ameliorate the trade-discouraging effects of U.S. tariffs, but they also adversely affect the U.S. terms of trade to such an extent that eliminating them is likely to improve U.S. domestic welfare. While it is possible to find a “equivalent” tariff rate that replicates the effects on trade flows of removing the tax provisions, the welfare effects of a tariff differ importantly because a tariff interacts differently than the tax provisions with other distortions in the model.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 41, No. 4, December 1994.
May 1, 1994
Credibility of Policies Versus Credibility of Policymakers
Description: Standard models of policy credibility, defined as the expectation that an announced policy will be carried out, emphasize the preferences of the policymaker, and the role of tough policies in signalling toughness and raising credibility. Whether a policy is carried out, however, will also reflect the state of the economy. We present a model in which a policymaker maintains a fixed parity in good times, but devalues if the unemployment rate gets too high. Our main conclusion is that if there is persistence in unemployment, observing a tough policy in a given period may lower rather than raise the credibility of a no-devaluation pledge in subsequent periods. We test this implication on data for the interest rate differential between France and Germany and find support for our hypothesis.