Working Papers
1994
June 1, 1994
The Main Determinants of Inflation in Nigeria
Description: This paper provides a selective review of the literature on the determinants of inflation in Nigeria, analyzes the dominant factors influencing inflation, presents the empirical results of a reduced-form elasticities model, and discusses the policy implications of the empirical results. The results of this analysis confirm the basic findings of earlier studies, namely that monetary expansion, driven mainly by expansionary fiscal policies, explains to a large degree the inflationary process in Nigeria. Other important factors are the devaluation of the naira and agroclimatic conditions. With respect to the depreciation of the naira, it was found that concurrent fiscal and monetary policies had a major influence on its impact on inflation. Given the considerable role of food commodities in the CPI, agroclimatic conditions (rainfall) were found to play a significant role in overall movements in prices and should be fully taken into consideration in any analysis of the inflationary process in Nigeria.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 42, No. 2, June 1995.
June 1, 1994
The Behavior of Real Interest Rates in Exchange-Rate Based Stabilization Programs
Description: This paper examines the behavior of real interest rates in exchange-rate based stabilization programs. The analysis is based on a model with imperfect capital mobility and optimizing agents. A permanent reduction in the devaluation rate is first shown to have an ambiguous effect on real interest rates on impact. The analysis is then extended to consider a stabilization program characterized by an initial reduction in the rate of devaluation of the nominal exchange rate, and the announcement of a future increase in income taxes. The impact effect on real interest rates is shown to depend upon the degree of credibility of the announcement. Real interest rates may fall if agents do not believe that taxes will be raised, and rise if the future tax reform is sufficiently credible.
June 1, 1994
Fiscal Federalism in Europe: Is it a Necessary Precondition for a Successful European Economic and Monetary Integration?
Description: An important question in the process of European integration concerns the best institutional level for stabilization policies. The theory of fiscal federalism gives criteria for evaluating if fiscal stabilization policies should take place on a centralized or on a decentralized level. This paper firstly discusses the usefulness of such policies. It reaches the conclusion that fiscal stabilization polices are in general not the adequate way of responding to shocks. However, since fiscal stabilization policies appear to be unavoidable for political reasons, the paper secondly discusses on which institutional level such policies should be located. Decentralized fiscal stabilization policies are preferable because they are disciplined more by market forces.
June 1, 1994
The Changing Mix of Disequilibria During Transition: A Romanian Background
Description: This paper looks at the dynamics of (dis)equilibria during post-command transition. It tries to define an optimal mix between external and internal disequilibrium and to apply this concept to the analysis of the Romanian economy. The forced adjustment of the balance of payments in the 1980s is presented as a prologue to the scrutiny of transformation policy underway; results and dilemmas of macro-stabilization are dealt with in this respect. The paper ends by providing some insights into the problematique of understanding (dis)equilibria in transforming economies.
June 1, 1994
Determining the Value of a Financial Unit of Account Basedon Composite Currencies: The Case of the Private Ecu
Description: Evidence from the past three years indicates that the exchange rate between the private ECU and the official ECU Basket can deviate substantially from par. The value of the private ECU is driven by expectations that a future European Central Bank will enforce par convertibility between the private ECU and the official ECU basket of currencies. Meanwhile, no existing institutional arrangement limits the private ECU’s value in terms of the Basket. This paper addresses the question of what determines the values of the private ECU and of private ECU interest rates. We show that an anticipation of a future fixing of the private ECU’s value, together with the interest rate setting mechanism of the large-value ECU payment and clearing system, are sufficient to determine its value. The determination of the private ECU exchange rate provides the template for how to determine the value of any private composite currency, such as, for example, a private SDR.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 42, No. 1, March 1995.
June 1, 1994
The Path of Output From Plan to Market
Description: This paper is intended to clarify the contribution of macroeconomic stabilization and structural adjustment to the transformation from plan to market in Central and Eastern Europe and elsewhere. Four main points emerge. First, increased price stability improves the utilization of capital and thus increases the level of output at full employment in the long run, even though output decreases initially. Second, the static output gain from stabilization is captured in a simple formula in which the gain is approximately proportional to the square of the original inflation distortion. Third, successful stabilization increases the rate of growth of output per head, and not only its level, in the presence of constant returns to capital in a broad sense. Fourth, substitution of plausible parameter estimates into the simple formulae reflecting the gains from stabilization indicate that the static and dynamic output gains can be quite large.
June 1, 1994
How Does Learning Affect Inflation After a Shift in the Exchange Rate Regime?
Description: This paper analyzes the consequences of a shift from a floating to a pegged exchange rate regime on the actual and expected inflation rate, in an environment of asymmetric information. Policymaking is endogenous and the public learns rationally. There are two main findings. First, there is a “honeymoon effect” after the regime change, where inflation is lower than in the long run. Second, the asymmetric information outcome converges to that of symmetric information in the long run.
June 1, 1994
Cash Shortage in the Former Soviet Union
Description: An unexpected shortage of banknotes emerged during 1992 in the former Soviet Union. The cash shortage is explained by the asymmetry in the monetary union that prevailed, under which one member (the Russian Federation) controlled banknote production while every member could create deposit money. Interest rate rigidity forestalled an equilibrating adjustment in demand for banknotes. The possible efficiency costs of the cash shortage are explored.
June 1, 1994
Relative Prices and Economic Adjustment in the U.S. and the EU: A Real Story About European Monetary Union
Description: Structural vector autoregressions are used to analyze the relationship between real output and relative prices within the EU and the United States, Relative price variability appears to be more important for adjustment within the EU than the United States, reflecting the lower integration of goods and factor markets. In the absence of higher market integration, the lower relative price variability implied by the introduction of a single currency in the EU could well cause significant economic disruption.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 42, No. 1, March 1995.
June 1, 1994
Are the Unemployed Unemployable?
Description: This paper develops a matching model of the labor market under wage rigidity when hiring decisions are irreversible. There are two types of workers, the skilled and the unskilled. The model is used to analyze whether technological advances may have increased unemployment. It is shown that it is likely to be so if they are associated with an increase in the productivity and/or the supply of skilled workers relative to unskilled workers. These effects are stronger when hiring decisions are more irreversible.