Working Papers

July 1, 1994

On Corruption and Capital Accumulation

Description: Reforming economies have typically placed little attention on the impact of illegal activities on the success of reform/stabilization packages and optimal policy design. This paper aims at developing a framework in which to assess an economy’s response to alternative stabilization/reform packages as a function of the scope of corruption activities. The framework developed herein is a basic one in which only the most fundamental questions (such as the effects of anti-corruption government policies on output and welfare) are examined. The more interesting questions of the optimal design of stabilization and economic reform policies remain to be addressed in future extensions of the model. The framework also accommodates political-economy analysis, and is able to explain why, even when able to eliminate corruption activity altogether, governments may choose not to do so. Our framework differentiates between developing and developed economies according to the income share accruing to capital, as is common in the literature. In equilibrium, the effect of anti-corruption penalties on the economy’s capital stock is greater in developing countries; in particular, we find that the elasticity of the steady state average per capita stock of capital with respect to increases in anti-corruption penalties is increasing in the income share accruing to capital. The model also shows that reductions in public good output, as a fraction of the economy’s total expenditure, lead to larger welfare decreases when in the presence of corruption.

July 1, 1994

The Low-Skill, Bad-Job Trap

Description: The paper explains how a country can fall into a “low-skill, bad-job trap,” in which workers acquire insufficient training and firms provide insufficient skilled vacancies. In particular, the paper argues that in countries where a large proportion of the workforce is unskilled, firms have little incentive to provide good jobs (requiring high skills and providing high wages), and if few good jobs are available, workers have little incentive to acquire skills. In this context, the paper examines the need and effectiveness of training policy, and provides a possible explanation for why western countries have responded so differently to the broad-based shift in labor demand from unskilled to skilled labor.

July 1, 1994

Restraining Yourself: Fiscal Rules and Stabilization

Description: State budgets in the United States played a significant macroeconomic role in the 1970s and 1980s, and the level of cyclical responsiveness was affected by the severity of statutory and constitutional fiscal restraints. Moving from no fiscal restraints to the most stringent restraints lowered the fiscal offset to income fluctuations by around 40 percent. Simulations indicate that a reduction in aggregate fiscal stabilizers of this size could lead to a significant increase in the variance of aggregate output.

Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 42, No. 1, March 1995.

July 1, 1994

The Impact of Controlson Capital Movementson the Private Capital Accounts of Countries' Balance of Payments: Empirical Estimates and Policy Implications

Description: This paper reports research on the impact of controls on capital movements on the private capital accounts of countries’ balance of payments using data drawn from 52 countries for the period 1985-92. The results indicate that: (1) capital controls operated by developing countries have not been effective in insulating the private capital accounts of these countries’ balance of payments, and (2) capital controls operated by industrial countries significantly affected the structure of their capital flows mainly by inhibiting net foreign direct and portfolio investment outflows. The results, which are consistent with other observations, raise issues for the policy toward the maintenance and liberalization of controls on capital movements by developing countries.

Notes: Study based on data drawn from 52 countries for the period 1985-92.

July 1, 1994

Taxation and Endogenous Growth in Open Economies

Description: This paper examines the effects of taxation of human capital, physical capital and foreign assets in a multi-sector model of endogenous growth. It is shown that in general the growth rate is reduced by taxes on capital and labor (human capital) income. When the government faces no borrowing constraints and is able to commit to a given set of present and future taxes, it is shown that the optimal tax plan involves high taxation of both capital and labor in the short run. This allows the government to accumulate sufficient assets to finance spending without any recourse to distortionary taxation in the long run. When restrictions to government borrowing and lending are imposed, the model implies that human and physical capital should be taxed similarly.

January 1, 0001

$name

January 1, 0001

$name

January 1, 0001

$name

June 1, 1994

Economic Reform and Structural Adjustment in East European Industry

Description: A consistent set of disaggregated industrial output data for four Eastern European countries is examined In order to determine the extent to which structural adjustment has taken place since the initiation of market-oriented reform. The latter created a massive relative price shock whose affects on the structure of the industrial sectors of these economies is shown to have been relatively small, at least one to two years after the reforms. An implication is that one argument in favor of more gradualist reform—based on the premise that more gradualism implies a smaller output cost in the short run—is questionable. By and large in these economies, the output cost associated with the removal of relative price distortions may still have to be faced.

June 1, 1994

Output Decline and Government Expenditures in European Transition Economies

Description: This paper discusses the role of government expenditure policies in the decline in aggregate output in European transition economies. It is argued that there is little evidence for the hypothesis that more expansionary expenditure policies would have helped to mitigate the output decline. While measurement problems allow for very preliminary conclusions, it appears that government expenditures were, generally, not a binding constraint for output. In those cases where it could be argued that government expenditures were a binding constraint, they were usually not the only one. Government expenditure levels still remain on the high side, at least when compared with European market-based economies, and there exists few reasons for pursuing expansionary expenditure policies to lift European transition economies out of the “transitional recession.” While raising expenditure levels per se is an unappealing policy choice, a further reordering of expenditure priorities is desirable. In particular, increases in the share of government expenditures on capital--human and physical--are needed to improve long-run output potential.

Notes: East European countries comprise Bulgaria, former Czechoslovakia and its two successor republics, Hungary, Poland, and Romania.