Working Papers
1994
August 1, 1994
Effects of Macroeconomic Stabilityon Growth, Savings, and Investment in Sub-Saharan Africa: An Empirical Investigation
Description: The analysis of this paper indicates that the unsatisfactory overall economic performance of sub-Saharan African countries during 1986–93 was due to inappropriate policies pursued by a number of countries. The countries that have pursued broadly appropriate adjustment policies have performed much better, achieving positive per capita GDP growth. The analysis is supported with an econometric investigation of the effects of macroeconomic policies, structural reforms, and exogenous factors on economic performance. The results indicate that progress in achieving macroeconomic stability and implementing structural reforms have been conducive to better growth, savings, and private investment.
Notes: Study on economic performance of sub-Saharan African countries during 1986-93.
August 1, 1994
How Does Industrialization Affect the Structure of International Trade? the Japanese Experience in the Pacific Basin, 1975-85
Description: This paper provides a theoretical model to address the issue of how industrialization affects the structure of international trade. Considering both horizontal and vertical product differentiation, the model shows that intra-industry trade increases when product quality improvement emerges in a developing country and when a difference in relative factor endowments between a developed and a developing countries shrinks. To promote understanding of the conclusions of the model, the paper also uses actual trade data between Japan and Indonesia and between Japan and Korea.
Notes: Study based on actual trade data between Japan and Indonesia and between Japan and Korea.
August 1, 1994
Linkages in Price Level and Inflation Rate Between Cfa Franc Zone Countries and France
Description: The price level behaviors of the CFA franc zone countries with respect to the price level of France, defined in terms of long-run convergence in price level and short-run linear dependence of their inflation rates are not homogenous and have a break-point in the mid 1980s except for Congo. This paper quantifies the evolution of the price level behavior of each CFA franc zone country from 1979 to 1993 using the cointegration and error-correction model techniques. The interzone linkages are also examined using the simple vector autoregression model.
August 1, 1994
Are Prices Countercyclical? Evidence From the G-7
Description: This paper re-examines the cyclical behavior of prices using postwar quarterly data for the G-7. We confirm recent evidence that the price level is countercyclical. However, we find strong evidence that the inflation rate is procyclical in our sample. Our results show the importance of making a clear distinction between inflation and the cyclical component of the price level when reporting and interpreting stylized facts regarding business cycles.
Notes: Study based on postwar quarterly data for the G-7.
August 1, 1994
Long-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate: A Stock-Flow Perspective
Description: This paper examines the long-run determinants of the real exchange rate from a stock-flow perspective. The empirical analysis estimates a long-run relationship between the real exchange rate, net foreign assets and other factors affecting trade flows. Using postwar data for the United States and Japan, cointegration analysis supports the finding that the structural factors underlying each country’s net trade and net foreign asset positions determine the long-run path for the real value of the dollar and the yen. The empirical analysis also provides estimates for the underlying stochastic trend in each real exchange rate series.
Notes: Study based on postwar data for the United States and Japan. Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 42, No. 1, March 1995.
August 1, 1994
Working Paper Summaries (WP/94/1 - WP/94/76)
Description: The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.
Notes: Compilation of summaries of Working Papers released during January- June 1994.
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1994
July 1, 1994
Supply-Side Effects of Disinflation Programs
Description: This paper focuses on the short-run and long-run supply-side effects of disinflation programs in a two-sector economy. Fixing the exchange rate reduces the wedge between the return on foreign assets and that on domestic capital, leading to an increase in the latter. After an initial real exchange rate appreciation and increase in the production of nontradables—due to a consumption boom—the new capital is gradually installed in the tradable sector. During this transitional period, further real appreciation takes place—as the expansion of the tradable sector pulls labor away from the nontradable sector—together with investment-driven deficits in the current account. We conclude that when appreciation and deficits are due to supply-side rigidities, rather than to credibility and/or price stickiness, no further policies (i.e., capital controls, incomes policies) are advisable.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 42, No. 1, March 1995.
July 1, 1994
Capital Account Convertibility: A New Model for Developing Countries
Description: This paper analyzes issues for developing countries considering a move to capital account convertibility. It reviews the relevant literature, including arguments for sequencing, and analyses in a series of charts various features of the foreign exchange market impact of removing controls, as against the alternative of foreign exchange intervention. Finally, it examines recent experiences of capital account liberalization by developing countries in the context of multi-pronged stabilization programs.
Notes: Developing countries comprise Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guyana, Indonesia, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, and Venezuela.
July 1, 1994
Information Asymmetries in Developing Country Financing
Description: This paper assesses the impact of information asymmetries on developing country financing and considers alternative techniques to reduce the adverse implications of such asymmetries. Following an introduction, Section II examines in general terms the role of information in financial markets and analyzes the incentive and risk sharing properties of alternative financial contracts. Information asymmetries which are present in domestic finance are more prevalent in international finance, in particular in developing country financing. Section III reviews measures aiming to resolve information asymmetries. Borrowing and creditor country regulations and policies, as well as innovative contractual agreements help to resolve a range of issues related to information asymmetries. However, despite their contribution, residual problems remain unresolved. The international financial institutions, and in particular the Fund, have an important role to play in alleviating information asymmetries.