Working Papers
January 1, 0001
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January 1, 0001
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January 1, 0001
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1994
August 1, 1994
The Canadian Labor Market: Developments, Prospects, and Policy
Description: This paper examines recent developments in the Canadian labor market. Using disaggregated labor market data, various hypotheses concerning the slow employment growth and rise in unemployment since 1990 are evaluated. The analysis indicates that a large part of the recent rise in the unemployment rate may reflect an increase in the structural rather than the cyclical component of unemployment. Various sources of labor market rigidities that may have contributed to the increase in structural unemployment are examined. In particular, the role of the unemployment insurance system in contributing to labor market rigidity and measures for reforming this system, including the recent proposals of the government, are discussed. Finally, this paper examines active labor market policies that could help to alleviate structural unemployment.
August 1, 1994
Adopting Currency Convertibility: Experiences and Monetary Policy Considerations for Advanced Developing Countries
Description: This paper analyses issues for developing countries with structurally sound balance of payments that are considering a move to full currency convertibility. The main experiences of industrial countries in their decontrol of international capital transactions are reviewed, with an emphasis on the implications for monetary policy. The paper deals both with stabilization, and the prudential issues, which are especially important in view of the potential for speculative bubbles. Respective roles of the international organizations, IMF, OECD, and the GATT, in assisting the capital liberalization process are discussed.
Notes: Discusses respective roles of the international organizations, IMF, OECD, and the GATT, in assisting the capital liberalization process.
August 1, 1994
Cointegration of International Stock Market Indices
Description: In this paper, we derive evidence on the integration of international stock markets from the cointegration properties of international stock market prices. Using the multivariate cointegration test of Johansen, we find that the set of six country stock price indices, including that of the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Japan are cointegrated. The results suggest that there are long-run equilibrium relationships among the stock market prices. Subsample and subgroup analyses also indicate that the cointegration relationships have become stronger over time. This is consistent with greater stock market integration amid the increasing liberalization and globalization of capital markets.
August 1, 1994
Government Spending, Taxes, and Economic Growth
Description: This paper develops an endogenous growth model of the influence of public investment, public transfers, and distortionary taxation on the rate of economic growth. The growth-enhancing effects of investment in public capital and transfer payments are modeled, as is the growth-inhibiting influence of the levying of distortionary taxes which are used to fund such expenditure. The theoretical implications of the model are then tested with data from 23 developed countries between 1971 and 1988, and time series cross sectional results are obtained which support the proposed influence of the public finance variables on economic growth.
Notes: Study based on data from 23 developed countries between 1971 and 1988. Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 42, No. 2, June 1995.
August 1, 1994
Aging Population and Canadian Public Pension Plans
Description: Canadian public pension plans are run on a "pay-as-you-go" basis. As the baby boom ages, contribution rates for the two main plans are projected to rise significantly, from their current level of around 5 percent of eligible earnings to over 13 percent by 2030. An alternative is to set contribution rates at their underlying long-term levels. Such a policy would imply a significant rise in current contribution rates, to 10-10½ percent of eligible earnings, but would allow the system to cope with the retirement of the baby boom generation without recourse to borrowing or significant increases in contribution rates.
August 1, 1994
External Shocks, the Real Exchange Rate, and Tax Policy
Description: This paper uses a computable general equilibrium model of the economy of Trinidad and Tobago to assess the effects of trade liberalization and terms-of-trade shocks on the real exchange rate and the overall fiscal position of the government. The model is also used to evaluate the implications of alternative tax policies designed to offset the increase in the budget deficit of the central government that results from both types of external sector shocks.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 42, No. 1, March 1995.
August 1, 1994
The Political Economy of Budget Deficits
Description: This paper provides a critical survey of the literature on politico-institutional determinants of the government budget. We organize our discussion around two questions: Why did certain OECD countries, but not others, accumulate large public debts? Why did these fiscal imbalances appear in the last 20 years rather than before? We begin by discussing the “tax smoothing” model and conclude that this approach alone cannot provide complete answers to these questions. We will then proceed to a discussion of political economy models, which we organize in six groups: (i) models based upon opportunistic policymakers and naive voters with “fiscal illusion;” (ii) models of intergenerational redistributions; (iii) models of debt as a strategic variable, linking the current government with the next one; (iv) models of coalition governments; (v) models of geographically dispersed interests; and (vi) models emphasizing the effects of budgetary institutions. We conclude by briefly discussing policy implications.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 42, No. 1, March 1995.