Working Papers
1994
September 1, 1994
Macroeconomic Policies and Smuggling: An Analysis of Illegal Oil Trade in Nigeria
Description: Based on a simple model, the paper provides an explanation for illegal oil trade between Nigeria and its neighboring countries. The analysis focuses on the linkages between the level of smuggling and changes in the Government’s fiscal, monetary, and domestic pricing policies. It is shown that smuggling has implications for inflation and currency depreciation. A vicious circle emerges when financial policies are expansionary and policy makers attempt to hold the domestic sale price of oil constant. Macroeconomic indicators of Nigeria over the period 1986-1993 appear to support the predictions of the model. Policy implications of the analysis are also noted.
September 1, 1994
Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates: Sweden 1992-1994
Description: The use of forward interest rates as a monetary policy indicator is demonstrated, using Sweden 1992-1994 as an example. The forward rates are interpreted as indicating market expectations of the time-path of future interest rates, future inflation rates, and future currency depreciation rates. They separate market expectations for the short-, medium-, and long-term more easily than the standard yield curve. Forward rates are estimated with an extended and more flexible version of Nelson and Siegel’s functional form.
September 1, 1994
Measures of External Competitiveness for Germany
Description: This paper assesses Germany's external competitive position from several angles. It first examines movements in several real exchange rate indices. The analysis of competitiveness is then supplemented by using the so-called constant market share approach, and finally by examining briefly both pressures on profit margins in the tradable goods sector as well as export prospects. A key conclusion of the analysis is that the deterioration of Germany's external competitiveness suggested by some commonly used indicators of the real appreciation of the deutsche mark, such as those based on relative unit labor costs in manufacturing, is generally exaggerated.
September 1, 1994
Achy But Healthy: Lessons From the Israeli Health Sector
Description: Health policy has been for some time high on the agenda of many countries--and where it has not, it should be. Since no ideal model of health services has ever been devised 9 one may look for favorable elements in the health sector of a given country and examine their applicability to other countries. This paper analyzes Israel’s health sector in this context.
September 1, 1994
How Does Foreign Direct Investment Affect Economic Growth
Description: We test the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth in a cross-country regression framework, utilizing data on FDI flows from industrial countries to 69 developing countries over the last two decades. Our results suggest that FDI is an important vehicle for the transfer of technology, contributing relatively more to growth than domestic investment. However, the higher productivity of FDI holds only when the host country has a minimum threshold stock of human capital. In addition, FDI has the effect of increasing total investment in the economy more than one for one, which suggests the predominance of complementarity effects with domestic firms.
September 1, 1994
Economic Trends in Africa: The Economic Performance of Sub-Saharan African Countries
Description: This paper highlights selected recent developments in the economies of sub-Saharan Africa. It notes that the outlook for commodity prices has improved, and with it the outlook for economic activity beyond 1994; it also notes, however, the need for higher savings and investment to sustain growth over the medium term. The paper also covers two aspects of structural adjustment: the liberalization of exchange and trade systems, which has been extensive and has resulted in a sharp reduction in exchange market distortions; and the momentum of regional integration in the CFA countries and in the Southern Africa region.
September 1, 1994
Tax Policy and the Environment: Theory and Practice
Description: This paper provides a framework for examining environment taxes. It reviews the theoretical efficiency of three types of environment taxes: taxes on emissions or Pigouvian taxes; taxes on productive inputs or consumer goods whose use is related to environmental damage; and environment-related provisions in other taxes. A survey of environment taxes in 42 countries--drawn from developing countries, economies in transition, and industrial countries--illustrates that the use of environment taxes differs dramatically from the recommendations of environment tax theory. This divergence between the theory and practice of environment taxes can be attributed to several factors; environment taxes are difficult to implement, there are many factors that impede their effectiveness, and their introduction may be discouraged by their implications for other policy objectives.
September 1, 1994
Explaining Unemployment in Spain: Structural Change, Cyclical Fluctuations, and Labor Market Rigidities
Description: Spain has the most serious and persistent unemployment problem in Europe, with an unemployment rate that reached 24.6 percent in early 1994. This paper explores the characteristics of this unemployment problem, its causes, and provides a brief discussion of recent labor market reform measures and their likely Impact. A demographic shift in recent years has produced a large rise in female labor force participation and a decrease in agricultural jobs to which the economy has been unable to adjust. The effects of generous unemployment benefits and the large underground economy may explain 6–12 percentage points of the resulting unemployment, but the remainder must be explained by failures and rigidities in the labor market. The paper presents econometric evidence that unemployment displays hysteresis, and that wages are not responsive to changes in the unemployment rate. This evidence supports the claim that insider-outsider factors and rigidities in the legal structure of the labor market are responsible for much of the high unemployment rate. Recent reforms have improved the functioning of the labor market, but they are unlikely to be sufficient to reduce unemployment to single digit rates without further action.
September 1, 1994
Tuition Subsidies in a Model of Economic Growth
Description: This paper examines a two-sector aggregative growth model with human capital and educated unemployment. In the model, a tuition subsidy may lead to a long-run decline in the educated fraction of the population, because it may decrease the long-run per capita stock of physical capital in the economy, tending to reduce the output of the education sector and the incentives for workers to enroll in school. Thus, cuts in education subsidies undertaken by countries in Africa for adjustment reasons may actually lead to long-run increases in the educational attainment of their populations.
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