Working Papers
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1994
November 1, 1994
Shocks and Structural Breaks: Labor Market Reforms in the United Kingdom
Description: This paper analyzes the effects of the labor market reforms launched in the early 1980s by the Conservative government led by Mrs. Thatcher. It is argued that the increase in the growth of labor productivity in manufacturing after 1980 as well as the improvement in the responsiveness of employment to variations in output can be largely attributed to the success of the reforms in reducing industrial disputes and removing a number of structural impediments in the labor market. However, the reforms did not succeed in moderating real wage growth or improving the tradeoff between wage inflation and unemployment. This is attributed to certain aspects of the wage bargaining system and the influence of relative wage norms in the process of wage determination.
November 1, 1994
Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade: Evidence From Developing Countries
Description: Devaluation is an integral part of adjustment in many developing countries, particularly relied upon by countries facing large external imbalances. A devaluation can only reduce trade imbalances if it translates to a real devaluation and if trade flows respond to relative prices in a significant and predictable manner. However, a recent strand in the empirical trade literature has questioned the existence of a stable relationship between trade flows and its traditional determinants. This paper re-examines the relationship between relative prices and imports and exports in a sample of 12 developing countries.
Notes: Examines on the relationship between relative prices and imports and exports in a sample of 12 developing countries. Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 42, No. 2, June 1995.
November 1, 1994
Fixed or Floating Exchange Regimes: Does it Matter for Inflation?
Description: This paper reviews recent experience with the choice of floating or fixed (“anchor”) exchange regimes in industrial and developing countries. It concludes that desirable differences between the two sets of regimes have narrowed, owing to the useful operational role of exchange rate margins and unavoidable medium-term rate adjustments in the context of fixed regimes. A survey of recent empirical cross-country literature also suggests little unambiguous association of the choice of exchange regime with macroeconomic performance, inflation in particular. Stability of the exchange rate has generally been a by-product of other policy choices. Even announcement effects of the regime on inflation-fighting credibility depend on the country-specific assignments of policy instruments to more than one institution--central bank, government, or regional and multilateral institutions.
November 1, 1994
The Payments System and its Effectson Monetary Operations: Recent Experience in the Russian Federation
Description: Recent developments and reforms in the Russian payments system are discussed from the perspective of their impact on monetary policy. The large and highly variable payment float in the balance sheet of the Central Bank of Russia has complicated the conduct of monetary policy. However, reforms in late 1992 and early 1993 have been effective, as judged from their impact in reducing the level and variability of float, and have set the stage for medium-term reforms of the payments system. Rapid progress in the implementation of these reforms, and their appropriate coordination with monetary operations, remain critical to meet the emerging needs in money and foreign exchange markets, and to support the transition to indirect methods of monetary control.
November 1, 1994
Trade Reform and Inflation Stabilization
Description: This paper examines two important issues for a small high-inflation open economy with trade controls where the government implements an exchange-rate based stabilization program: first, the extent to which the degree of openness of the economy influences the probability of success of the program; and second, the conditions under which a trade reform, implemented in conjunction with the stabilization program, will increase the probability that stabilization will be successful. The paper shows that in an economy with high export and import price elasticities, structural reforms to increase openness can be important in determining the success of the program.