Working Papers
1995
January 1, 1995
Long-Run Exchange Rate Modeling: A Survey of the Recent Evidence
Description: In this paper we survey the recent literature on long run, or equilibrium, exchange rate modeling. In particular, we review the voluminous literature which tests for a unit root in real exchange rates and the closely related work on testing for a unit root in the residual from a regression of the nominal exchange rate on relative prices. We argue that the balance of evidence is supportive of the existence of some form of long-run exchange rate relationship. The form of this relationship, however, does not accord exactly with a traditional representation of the long-run exchange rate. We offer some potential explanations for this lack of conformity.
Notes: Surveys recent literature on long run, or equilibrium, exchange rate modeling. Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 42, No. 3, September 1995.
January 1, 1995
Stabilization and Structural Change in Russia, 1992-94
Description: Macroeconomic stabilization and structural reforms in Russia since 1992 have been proceeding in a rather chaotic fashion. The Russian variety of economic gradualism has seen a sharp decline in output, though less than indicated by official statistics, and relatively resilient household consumption. Hyperinflation has been avoided so far by tightened financial policies, but remains a threat. Conventional macroeconomic wisdom on the relation between money, prices and output is relevant for Russia. Moreover, stabilization and structural change interact and are mutually reinforcing.
January 1, 1995
Wage Expenditures of Central Governments
Description: Central government wage expenditures accounted for 7 percent of GDP in 99 countries during 1980-90 (unweighted average). Regression analysis indicates that federations, countries with high populations and high per capita incomes, heavily indebted countries, and small low-income economies tend to have lower central government wage expenditures as a percent of GDP. Access to private nonguaranteed foreign financing is associated with higher wage expenditures, while public and publicly guaranteed foreign financing is not; the public and publicly guaranteed foreign financing is often provided for government capital projects. Medium-term structural adjustment programs, on average, have a negative association with wage expenditures, while short-term stabilization programs do not. The negative correlation between central government wage expenditures and per capita income appears related to the level of centralization of government expenditures. General government wage expenditures are higher in industrial countries than in developing countries.
January 1, 1995
Wage Contracts, Capital Mobility, and Macroeconomic Policy
Description: This paper examines the long-run effects of macroeconomic policy shocks on the behavior of output, inflation, real wages and the real exchange rate in a small open economy. The analysis is based on a two-sector, three-good optimizing model with imperfect capital mobility, nominal wage contracts with backward- or forward-looking price expectations, and endogenous mark-up pricing in the nontraded goods sector. The effects of a cut in government spending on nontraded goods are shown to be independent of the expectational mechanism embedded in wage contracts. A reduction in the nominal devaluation rate lowers steady-state output in the tradable sector under backward-looking contracts, but exerts an expansionary effect under forward-looking contracts.
January 1, 1995
Environmental Protectionism, North-South Trade, and the Uruguay Round
Description: The paper seeks to provide an overview of the present state of debate on trade, environment and the GATT for developing countries. Potential for green protectionism and relevant GATT rules are discussed in three areas: i) environmental product regulations including eco-labeling and other product measures with effects on production processes and border adjustment of environmental taxes; ii) extraterritorial use of trade measures to influence environmental behavior in other countries; and iii) the use of trade measures with international environmental agreements. The conclusion of the Uruguay Round will have a number of direct and indirect effects on trade and environment and the GATT debate on it.
January 1, 1995
The Simple Economics of Benefit Transfers
Description: The paper examines the employment and unemployment implications of permitting unemployed people to use part of their unemployment benefits to provide employment vouchers to the firms that hire them. This opportunity to transfer unemployment benefits into employment subsidies--“benefit transfers” for short--would help replace the unemployment trap by an incentive to work. The vouchers rise with people’s unemployment durations and with the amount of training provided. The policy would be costless to the government since the cost of the employment vouchers is set equal to the amount saved on unemployment benefits. It would not be inflationary since the long-term unemployed, on whom the vouchers are targeted, have little influence on wage setting.
January 1, 1995
Government Finance Statistics in the Countries of the Former Soviet Union: Compilation and Methodological Issues
Description: The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.
Notes: Examines compilation issues affecting government finance statistics (GFS) in the Baltics, the Russian Federation and other states of the former Soviet Union (the FSU countries).
January 1, 1995
An Analysis of Value-Added Taxes in Russia and Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union
Description: Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union at the end of 1991, Russia and the other countries which were members of the USSR have adopted value-added taxes. The value-added tax now provides a very significant portion of total tax revenue in all of these countries. Ideally, the value-added tax will serve as a relatively efficient, neutral, revenue source at the national level. The Russian value-added tax, however, contains a number of unique provisions, reflected in the laws of many of the other transition countries, which cause it to fall short of this standard. These countries also must decide how their value-added taxes are to apply to trade among themselves. This paper describes several of the provisions unique to the Russian value-added tax and analyzes their probable effects. It then discusses the development of arrangements which have evolved to date with respect to applying the value-added tax to trade among the transition countries, and suggests possible answers to the vexing questions raised by this issue.
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