Working Papers
January 1, 0001
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January 1, 0001
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January 1, 0001
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1995
March 1, 1995
Wage Structure in the Transition of the Czech Economy
Description: From the perspective of market economies, central planning produced distinct distortions in the wage structures of socialist countries. This paper examines the extent to which wage structures have adjusted to remove such distortions during the economic transition using micro-data from the Czech Republic. There is strong evidence that Czech wage structures are moving toward patterns in market economies, and the change is led by developments in the private sector and retarded by the sluggish response in state enterprises. At the same time, the establishment of collective bargaining does not appear to be introducing countervailing distortions into Czech wage structures.
March 1, 1995
Fiscal Restructuring in the Group of Seven Major Industrial Countries in the 1990's: Macroeconomic Effects
Description: This paper studies the fiscal restructuring of the first half of the 1990s in the major industrial countries. It presents and calibrates a simple model of the labor market and integrates it into a multi-country macroeconomic model that takes into account the effects of distortionary taxes. It then uses the resulting framework to simulate the effects of recent and prospective changes in fiscal policies in the group of seven major industrial countries. The analysis suggests that in the long run the impact on output is likely to be positive in those countries that relied relatively more on expenditure cuts or indirect tax increases (such as Canada, France, Japan, and the United Kingdom), while the effect of the fiscal restructuring on output is estimated to be negative in those countries that relied primarily on labor and capital taxes (Germany, Italy, and the United States).
March 1, 1995
The Italian Public Pension System: Current Prospects and Reform Options
Description: Public pension expenditure in Italy has been growing rapidly in the last three decades and is now among the highest in industrialized countries. Despite recent reforms, benefits remain generous by international standards and, unless additional measures are taken, the financial situation of the system will deteriorate in the long term. The paper reviews the current system, its history, and its prospects, and examines through simulations the long-run effects of alternative pension reform options.
March 1, 1995
Economic Effects and Structural Determinants of Capital Controls
Description: This paper studies determinants and effects of capital controls using a panel of 61 developed and developing countries. The results suggest that capital account restrictions are more likely to be in place in countries with low income, a large share of government, and where the central bank is not independent. Other determinants of controls include the exchange rate regime, current account imbalances and the degree of openness of the economy. We also find that capital controls and other foreign exchange restrictions are associated with higher inflation and lower real interest rates. We do not find any robust correlation between our measures of controls and the rate of growth, although there is evidence that countries with large black market premia grow more slowly.
Notes: Study based on a panel of 61 developing and developed countries. Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 42, No. 3, September 1995.
March 1, 1995
World Public Debt and Real Interest Rates
Description: Real interest rates appear to have risen in virtually all industrialized countries relative to levels that prevailed in the 1960s and 1970s. There is increasing concern that this may reflect higher public debt, which is crowding out private sector activity. Over the last two decades, there has also been increasing international capital market integration. This suggests that interest rates in any country may be sensitive to global fiscal developments. This paper estimates the effects of aggregate fiscal developments in the industrialized world on real interest rates in nine industrial countries. The results imply that the increase in OECD-wide government debt since the late 1970s was a major factor explaining the rise in real interest rates.
Notes: The developed countries are Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Germany, United Kingdom, Japan, Netherlands, United States, and Switzerland.
March 1, 1995
Paradise Lost? Growth, Convergence and Migration in the South Pacific
Description: This paper examines the determinants of growth for nine South Pacific countries during the period 1971-93, using the analytical framework of the Solow-Swan neoclassical growth model. Chamberlain’s II-matrix estimator is used to account for unobserved country-specific heterogeneity in the growth process, and to control for errors-in-variables bias in calculations of real per-capita GDP. The speed of convergence of South Pacific countries to their respective steady-state levels of per-capita GDP, after controlling for the important regional effects of net international migration, is estimated at a relatively fast 4 percent per year. In addition, private and official transfers emanating from regional donor countries have kept the dispersion of real per-capita national disposable income constant over the period, despite a significant widening in the regional dispersion of real per-capita GDP.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 42, No. 3, September 1995.
March 1, 1995
Historical Experience with Bond Financing to Developing Countries
Description: The paper reviews the historical experience of developing countries with bond issues in international markets in order to put the recent wave of bond financing by these countries in some perspective. It examines developments in the early part of this century and during the mid-1970s and early 1980s. The sources and the role played by bond financing during these periods are discussed. The payments problems associated with these bonds that emerged during the 1930s and during the latter half of the 1980s and the ways in which these problems were resolved are also examined.