Working Papers
1995
May 1, 1995
Hysteresis in Exports
Description: This paper presents an empirical examination of the importance of hysteresis in international trade. An econometric model of export determination is developed where the presence of sunk costs causes discontinuous behavior and hysteresis so that individual exporters’ decision to stay in or out of the market depends on the current value of the exchange rate as well as its past history. The aggregate level of exports is then determined by the proportion of exporters that stay in the market. The resulting non-linear model is estimated using data on manufacturing exports for the United States, Germany, and Japan. The paper finds strong evidence in favor of the presence of pricing-to-market and hysteresis only in the case of Japanese exports.
Notes: Models are estimated using data for the United States, Germany, and Japan.
May 1, 1995
International Evidenceon the Determinants of Private Saving
Description: A broad set of possible determinants of private saving behavior is examined, using data for a large sample of industrial and developing countries. Both time-series and cross-section estimates are obtained. Results suggest that there is a partial offset on private saving of changes in public saving and (for developing countries) in foreign saving, that demographics and growth are important determinants of private saving rates, and that interest rates and terms of trade have positive, but less robust, effects. Increases in per capita GDP seem to increase saving at low income levels (relative to the United States) but decrease it at higher ones.
May 1, 1995
Fiscal Implications of Trade Liberalization
Description: This paper examines the relationship between trade liberalization and the budget deficit, which depends on the specifics of country’s economic structure, and the trade regime which is being liberalized. It relates some popular but incomplete approaches to assessing this issue (such as analysis of the foreign exchange budget) to a more comprehensive approach using an applied general equilibrium model. The argument is illustrated using data from the most recent of a sequence of abortive planned liberalizations in Kenya, as well as a number of stylized illustrations. The conclusions are not only that liberalization may be budget enhancing, but that in certain circumstances it may be strongly so.
May 1, 1995
Fiscal Deficit and Public Debt in Industrial Countries, 1970-1994
Description: This paper assembles a set of relevant fiscal data, for both the individual countries and for the aggregate G-7 and 18 industrial countries, which covers a period long enough to allow an assessment of trends and the conduct of econometric tests. The “world” fiscal deficit has been rising since the 1970s and reached a historic high in 1993-94; the rise of the deficit has been accompanied by a significant decline in world saving. The paper argues that the increase in public debt, which has been the consequence of the accumulation of the fiscal deficits, has pushed up worldwide interest rates. Econometric evidence in support of this relationship is presented on the basis of panel data for the period 1970-93.
May 1, 1995
The Burden of Sub-Saharan African Own Commitments in the Uruguay Round: Myth or Reality?
Description: The paper reviews Sub-Saharan Africa’s (SSA) (i) own market access commitments in the Uruguay Round, and (ii) the nature of the constraints on SSA policies set by the Uruguay Round. It concludes that SSA failed to use the Uruguay Round to lock domestic reforms to an international anchor. Apart from South Africa, most SSA countries made few substantial liberalization commitments on border protection. The new rules set few immediate constraints on SSA policies as developing countries benefit from long and extendable transition periods. The main impact of the new rules will be increased transparency of policies from increased notification requirements. Further trade liberalization will have to rely on unilateral initiatives. This a Working Paper and the author(s) would welcome any comments on the present text. Citations should refer to a Working Paper of the International Monetary Fund, mentioning the author(s), and the date of issuance. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the Fund.
May 1, 1995
Auction Format Matters: Evidenceon Bidding Behavior and Seller Revenue
Description: This paper evaluates the importance of auction format on bidding behavior and seller revenue, focusing on differences in performance under uniform-price and discriminatory-price formats. The analysis is based on a standard benchmark model from which empirically-testable hypotheses are derived on the optimal amount of bid shading that generates revenue equivalence between the two formats. Applying this model to data from the IMF gold auctions run in 1976-80, we find evidence of statistically significant shading in excess of the theoretically-derived optimum under the discriminatory format. This evidence suggests greater seller revenue under the uniform-price format.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 43, No. 2, June 1996.
May 1, 1995
The Taxation of Financial Assets: A Survey of Issues and Country Experiences
Description: Taxes affect the degree and efficiency of financial intermediation in many different ways. This paper summarizes the main tax provisions in OECD countries that affect the overall “tax wedge” between pre-tax returns on investments, and the post-tax yield on the savings that finance them. This tax wedge is shown to vary widely, in individual countries, according to the different ways in which savings are channeled through financial markets. The paper then discusses alternative criteria for assessing tax regimes for financial assets, and summarizes recent trends in OECD countries.
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