Working Papers
1995
September 1, 1995
Growth in East Asia: What We Can and What We Cannot Infer From it
Description: This paper examines the different arguments raised by the studies that addressed the East Asian growth experience. The original arguments presented in this paper are all on the negative side, highlighting problems associated with some of the possible explanations for the East Asian miracle. The paper concentrates mainly on four dimensions of the debate about the East Asian growth experience: (i) The nature of economic growth intensive or extensive?; (ii) The role of public policy and of selective interventions; (iii) The role of high investment rates and a strong export orientation as possible engines of growth; and (iv) The importance of the initial conditions and their relevance for policy.
Notes: Paper was presented at the Conference on Growth and Productivity, organized by the Reserve Bank of Australia in Sydney, in July 1995.
September 1, 1995
Imports Under a Foreign Exchange Constraint: The Case of the Islamic Republic of Iran
Description: This paper examines the role of foreign exchange receipts in determining Iran’s imports during 1961/62-1992/93. It provides evidence of the existence of long-term relationship between imports and foreign exchange receipts, as well as the traditional price and output variables.
September 1, 1995
Dollarization in Transition Economies: Evidence and Policy Implications
Description: After most restrictions on foreign currency holdings were relaxed in the early 1990s, foreign currency deposits in transition economies have been increasing rapidly. This paper takes a first look at the evidence on dollarization for 15 transition economies, and then discusses some key conceptual and policy implications. Depending on the institutional constraints, foreign currency deposits as a proportion of broad money reached a peak of between 30 and 60 percent in 1992-93. Unlike what has been observed in Latin America, however, dollarization has fallen substantially in the aftermath of successful stabilization plans in Estonia, Lithuania, Mongolia, and Poland. Since foreign currency deposits reflect mainly a portfolio choice, the fall in dollarization can be primarily attributed to higher real returns on domestic-currency assets, as a result of lower inflation and more market-determined interest rates.
September 1, 1995
The Measurement of Reinvested Earnings in the Balance of Payments
Description: This paper notes that, for the first time, the concept and treatment of reinvested earnings in the Fund’s Balance of Payments Manual and the 1993 System of National Accounts are fully harmonized. The paper presents the conceptual basis for the measurement of reinvested earnings and illustrative examples as to recording, from the Fund’s Balance of Payments Compilation Guide and Balance of Payments Textbook. Highlighted are the recommended time of recording of reinvested earnings, the calculation of earnings on a current operating basis, and the calculation of depreciation at replacement cost, notwithstanding possible practical difficulties in implementation.
September 1, 1995
The Identification of Capital Transfers in the Balance of Payments
Description: The separate identification of current and capital transfers was introduced for the first time in the fifth edition of the Fund’s Balance of Payments Manual (Manual), thus harmonizing with the treatment of transfers in the 1993 System of National Accounts (1993 SNA). Capital transfers are now recorded in the capital account component of the balance of payments and include debt forgiveness, migrants’ transfers, and other transfers, of which investment grants is a significant category. This paper presents the criteria for defining capital transfers and provides sources and methods of compilation, and examples of treatment, as illustrated in the Fund’s Balance of Payments Compilation Guide and Balance of Payments Textbook.
September 1, 1995
The Macroeconomic Effects of ESAF-Supported Programs: Revisiting Some Methodological Issues
Description: This paper examines whether ESAF-supported programs during 1986-91 had significant independent effects on growth, inflation and the external debt service ratio. Econometric estimates of the Generalized Evaluation Estimator (GEE) identify statistically significant beneficial effects on output growth and the debt service ratio but no effects on inflation. The robustness of these estimates is also examined. Diagnostic tests cast doubt on the applicability of the GEE framework to the ESAF-eligible countries, and the results obtained using it.
September 1, 1995
Government Subsidies: Concepts, International Trends, and Reform Options
Description: This paper addresses the problems of defining and measuring government subsidies, examines why and how government subsidies are used as a fiscal policy tool, assesses their economic effects, appraises international empirical evidence on government subsidies, and offers options for their reform. Recent international trends in government subsidy expenditure are analyzed for the 16-year period from 1975 to 1990, using general government subsidy data for 60 countries from the System of National Accounts (SNA) and central government expenditure on subsidies and other current transfers for 68 countries from Government Finance Statistics (GFS). The paper reviews major policy options for subsidy reform, focusing on ways to improve the cost-effectiveness of subsidy programs.
September 1, 1995
Financial Sector Reform in Jamaica During 1985-1992, Possible Lessons for the Caribbean
Description: This paper reviews the Jamaican experience with indirect instruments and contrasts this with the currency board type arrangements of the common currency area governed by the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB). Reforms in Jamaica improved intermediation and banking efficiency, but a weak fiscal position and interest rate caps undermined the effectiveness of indirect instruments in attaining monetary control. The apparent stability amongst members of the currency union may mask fiscal pressures. In most Caribbean countries, problems of quasi-fiscal pressures on money supply, and disintermediation due to some regulation, are evident. Resolving these issues are necessary to facilitate the reforms being pursued.
September 1, 1995
Wage Dispersion in the 1980's: Resurrecting the Role of Trade Through the Effects of Durable Employment Changes
Description: This paper finds that changes in durable manufacturing employment and investment in computer equipment can explain rising wage dispersion in the United States, measured in terms of the education premium. Reduced employment opportunities in durables production drive down the average wage for workers with only a high school education, thereby increasing the wage premium for college education. An innovation in this paper is the inclusion of investment in equipment as a proxy for skill-biased technical change. The rise in the technical skill premium could alone explain all of the rise in the college premium since 1979 were there no offsetting effects. This is a Paper on Policy Analysis and Assessment and the author(s) would welcome any comments on the present text Citations should refer to a Paper on Policy Analysis and Assessment of the International Monetary Fund, mentioning the author(s) and the date of issuance. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the Fund.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 43, No. 2, June 1996.
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