Working Papers

December 1, 1995

A General Equilibrium Approach to Interenterprise Arrears in Transition Economies with Application to Russia

Description: This paper presents a general equilibrium model of interenterprise arrears, characterized by n-stage production technology with random productivity shocks. The model shows that large interenterprise arrears in transition economies may reflect substantial business risks in those countries and that rapid privatization and commercialization may contribute to a huge initial accumulation of trade credits and arrears. The paper also suggests that administrative measures aimed at immediate reduction of IEA such as imposition of prepayments and penalty charges, would not be as effective as partial equilibrium frameworks suggest. Consequently, a fundamental solution should be sought instead in reducing business risks or improving enterprise information. Finally, the paper discusses the relevance of the model to Russian experience in 1993 and 1994.

December 1, 1995

The Uruguay Round and Net Food Importers

Description: This paper attempts to assess the incremental external financing requirements occasioned by changes in world food prices, due to implementation of the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture, for a sample of 57 developing countries. Based on estimates of changes in food prices due to the Round obtained in previous studies, and on detailed data on food trade by country and commodity, the present study shows that the increase in net food import costs are likely to be smaller than 4 percent of net food imports over a period of six years for the countries considered, although for some of the larger trading nations the effect may exceed US$10 million.

December 1, 1995

Macroeconomic Shocks and Trade Flows within Sub-Saharan Africa: Implications for Optimum Currency Arrangements

Description: Africa has more countries than any other continent, and hence the largest number of potential monetary and exchange rate arrangements. This paper looks at whether the existing highly fractured monetary arrangements in Sub-Saharan Africa correspond to what might be expected from the theory of optimum currency areas. This is done by analyzing both the size and correlation of real disturbances across countries and the level of intra-regional trade. The results indicate little evidence that Sub-Saharan African countries would benefit in the near future from larger currency unions.

December 1, 1995

Financial Sector Reforms in Eight Countries: Issues and Results

Description: This paper examines financial sector reforms in eight developing countries--Argentina, Bulgaria, Ecuador, Egypt, India, Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda--and derives general lessons from their experience. The paper reviews the initial situation of these countries; describes the financial sector (and related) reforms carried out, including sequencing issues, and points out the unresolved questions; and examines the effects of reforms on monetary control and financial development, investment and growth and the efficiency of financial intermediation. The main recommendations are the need to persevere with macroeconomic stabilization through indirect monetary policy instruments, and the need to substantially strengthen prudential regulation and supervision and restructure and privatize or liquidate ailing financial institutions.

December 1, 1995

Inflation Dynamics in Kazakstan

Description: In January 1992, Kazakstan initiated a reform program to move toward market-determined prices. The price liberalization process was characterized by large relative price shifts and an increase in the overall price level toward those observed in market economies. The paper shows how the piecemeal manner in which prices were liberalized resulted in strong relative price variability over a prolonged period of time, against a background of high inflation. Convergence toward international relative and absolute price levels has progressed but is not complete, with prices for energy and services in particular still below market economy level.

December 1, 1995

A Survey of Economic Policies and Macroeconomic Performance in Chile and Colombia, 1970-95

Description: This survey describes the timing and main macroeconomic results of the ambitious structural reforms adopted by Chile in the middle and late 1970s and by Colombia almost a decade later in the late 1980s and early 1990s. These reforms have enabled both countries to maintain vigorous real growth rates during the first part of the 1990s. However, they face challenges to their competitiveness as their real exchange rates continue to appreciate and real unit labor costs have been increasing. Although their exchange rate management system has helped to avoid an excessive inflow of short-term capital, interest rate differentials keep exerting pressures. Structural reforms have helped attract foreign direct investment, allowing the investment ratios of both countries to increase.

December 1, 1995

Deposit Protection Arrangements: A Survey

Description: This paper is a survey of deposit protection arrangements and it compares the key elements of deposit protection schemes around the world. There are more implicit arrangements that guarantee deposits than explicit ones, but there has been a growing tendency since the 1980s for countries to adopt explicit ones largely in response to emerging problems with their financial systems.

December 1, 1995

Capital Market Integration in the Pacific Basin Region: An Analysis of Real Interest Rate Linkages

Description: This paper investigates the extent to which financial markets in the Pacific Basin Region have become more integrated, by analyzing the comovements of real interest rates. The paper uses cointegration and error correction models and draws inferences on the degree of capital market integration by looking at the speed of adjustment of real interest rates following a shock. The results show that there has been an increase in capital market integration with both U.S. and Japan during the 1980s. Japan has not, however, overtaken U.S. in dominating the financial markets of these countries, except possibly in the case of Malaysia. Capital market integration is found to be greater in Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan Province of China. On the other hand, Japan is the least integrated country with the United States.

Notes: Examines comovements of real interest rates in Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan Province of China, Malaysia, and Korea.

December 1, 1995

The Mexican Financial Crisis: A Test of the Resilience of the Markets for Developing Country Securities

Description: This paper reviews developments in private capital flows to developing countries since the Mexican financial crisis in December 1994. The paper points out that a strong recovery in these flows masks some significant changes in their characteristics, particularly in the type of borrowers back toward sovereigns and the currency denomination of new issues shifted away from U.S. dollars. Terms of new bond issues became significantly less favorable than before the Mexican crisis. One of the most striking developments was the sharp increase in bond placements by developing countries in deutsche mark and yen. It is shown that relatively favorable credit ratings assigned by Japanese rating agencies facilitated some developing countries to tap the yen bond market.

January 1, 0001

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