Working Papers

January 1, 0001

$name

January 1, 0001

$name

January 1, 0001

$name

January 1, 1996

Implications of the Uruguay Round for Kenya

Description: This paper studies the implications of the Uruguay Round for Kenya’s own trade regime and its external trading environment. The analysis indicates that Kenya did not undertake significant liberalization commitments under the Uruguay Round. There are however, several effects on Kenya’s external trading environment due to most-favored nation tariff cuts, erosion of preference margins, and changes in food prices. These effects are determined using simple computational techniques in a partial equilibrium framework. Overall, the results indicate that the effect on Kenya’s balance of payments in the medium-term may be negative but modest, and can be offset by pursuit of appropriate structural adjustment policies.

January 1, 1996

Effects of the Uruguay Roundon Egypt and Morocco

Description: This paper presents simple computational techniques to examine a variety of effects of the Uruguay Round on developing country trade flows. These methods are applied to the cases of Egypt and Morocco to simulate the implications of the Round for their medium-term balance of payments. The analysis takes into account most-favored-nation tariff cuts, preference erosion, liberalization of trade in textiles and clothing, and potential increases in world food prices. The simulation results indicate that the overall balance of payments implications of the Uruguay Round for these countries, while negative, may not be very significant.

January 1, 1996

Presumptive Taxation in Sub-Saharan Africa: Experiences and Prospects

Description: Considering the need to broaden the tax base and to increase tax revenue in an efficient, equitable, and cost-effective manner, this paper analyzes presumptive taxation methods and their application in sub-Saharan Africa. Presumptive taxation involves simple techniques to capture income that frequently escapes conventional taxation. Presumptive taxation methods could be used more intensively in sub-Saharan Africa, and presumptive taxes on imports, withholding schemes, and graduated business license fees are most effective in raising additional tax revenue in a way commensurate with efficiency, equity, and administrative expediency. Also, intensified presumptive taxation will need stronger institutional capacity in tax administration.

January 1, 1996

Dollarization in Latin America: Recent Evidence and Some Policy Issues

Description: This paper examines the pattern of dollarization in Latin America, focusing on the experience of five countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Mexico, Peru and Uruguay) during 1970-1993. It presents evidence on the relative size of dollarization, the allocation of foreign currency deposits, and the behavior of money velocity. The discussion stresses the role of institutional factors, macroeconomic conditions, and the dynamics of money demand In shaping the dollarization process; it also highlights the shortcomings of indicators frequently employed to analyze the phenomenon. The paper provides a brief critical assessment of the empirical literature on dollarization, and identifies areas where further research seems warranted.

January 1, 1996

Aspects of the Swiss Labor Market

Description: This paper presents an analysis of the behavior of the Swiss labor market, which emphasizes both changes to labor supply and real wage inflexibility as determinants of recent unusually high levels of unemployment. Supply responses in the past meant that measured unemployment rates were rarely high. The paper suggests that these responses also meant that real wages were probably less responsive to shocks as a result. Econometric tests reported in the paper broadly confirm these suggestions, and imply that the level of unemployment consistent with stable inflation has risen in Switzerland.

January 1, 1996

Institutional Investors and Asset Pricing in Emerging Markets

Description: This paper presents a new theory of asset pricing intended to address why other developing country equity markets responded so strongly to the Mexican devaluation, while the world’s major stock markets were unmoved. This phenomenon can be explained if investors follow a two-step portfolio allocation process, first determining what share of their portfolio to invest in developing countries, then allocating those funds across the emerging markets. For 12 of 13 markets studied, the one-factor CAPM is rejected in favor of a two-factor asset pricing model, including both a broad emerging markets portfolio and the global market portfolio.

January 1, 1996

Central Bank Independence: A Free Lunch?

Description: This paper extends the analysis of central bank independence to a model in which there is more than one policymaker. It shows that the degree of central bank independence as generally defined in the existing theoretical literature is only one of the influences on macroeconomic performance. The objectives of the fiscal authority, the commitment mechanisms available to the authorities and the nature of the policy game play a key role in determining the inflation rate and output in the economy. Furthermore, the model can be solved for the optimal degree of inflation aversion of the central bank. , a Working Paper and the authors) would welcome any comments on the present text Citations should refer to a Working Paper of the International Monetary Fund, mentioning the authors), and the date of issuance. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the Fund.