Working Papers
1996
February 1, 1996
Capital Inflows in the Baltic Countries, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union: Monetary and Prudential Issues
Description: Significant capital inflows were observed during the first half of 1995 in a number of FSU countries. This paper reviews the recent experience of those countries with significant inflows, examines policy responses in view of the current macroeconomic and institutional environment, discusses the use of monetary and prudential instruments to sterilize or discourage inflows, and reviews operational considerations for conducting sterilization operations.
February 1, 1996
Jumps, Martingales, and Foreign Exchange Futures Prices
Description: A common specification about the behavior of foreign exchange spot and futures prices is that they follow continuous diffusion processes. The empirical regularities uncovered from daily and weekly currency futures data, however, cast doubts on the validity of this model. First, contrary to the suggestions in the literature, changes in foreign currency futures prices are serially correlated; variance ratio tests and other related tests overwhelmingly reject Samuelson’s martingale hypothesis. Second, foreign exchange futures prices do not appear to have continuous sample path; the evidence suggests the presence of a jump component, which may lead to pricing bias when applying the standard Black-Scholes option pricing formula to foreign exchange markets.
February 1, 1996
The Sources of Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Brazil and Korea
Description: This paper studies the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in developing countries using a structural VAR approach. Identification of the sources is achieved using long-run restrictions derived from a theoretical model of a small open economy encompassing a large number of macroeconomic paradigms; the short-run dynamics are unrestricted. This framework is applied to Brazil and Korea. The results confirm that supply shocks are the main source of GDP fluctuations, even in the short run. Aggregate demand shocks are shown to be important in the short run in Brazil, but not in Korea. External shocks explain a small fraction of the variance of output, whereas the real exchange rate is driven mainly by fiscal shocks. Nominal shocks appear to have little impact on output and the real exchange rate.
February 1, 1996
Do Government Wage Cuts Close Budget Deficits? a Conceptual Framework for Developing Countries and Transition Economies
Description: Real wage declines have been common in the public sector in many countries over substantial periods of time. In several cases, such wage reductions have coincided with a decline in the efficiency of the public sector. In a simple analytical framework, it is shown that higher wage levels alter the incentive compatible equilibrium by attracting relatively skilled human capital to the government sector, which raises the quality of public output--tax revenue collection in this paper. Increases in wages should be complemented with appropriate monitoring and penalty rates for effective tax administration; prescriptions of raising the statutory tax rate alone, however, may not increase revenue collection.
February 1, 1996
The Role of Credit Markets in a Transition Economy with Incomplete Public Information
Description: In this paper we explore some of the informational problems that constrain the development of credit markets in transition economies. We characterize investment patterns under uncertainty and high costs of entry, when agents learn about the ultimate value of enterprises through production in a Bayesian way. Inefficiencies due to the lack of public information reduce the average return to capital. Under asymmetric information, credit would go to activities that can provide enough co-finance. Credit markets may fail to develop for a while if there is not enough individual wealth to complement credit. Once they operate, credit markets may magnify distortions in equity markets, such as those due to spontaneous privatization. An argument for the sequencing of capital market liberalization is provided.
February 1, 1996
Should the IMF Become More Adaptive?
Description: This paper addresses the question: Should the International Monetary Fund be making an even greater effort to adapt its objectives, priorities, rules, instruments, procedures, and resources to take account of changes in the global economic environment and in the needs of its members? It reviews the changes in the economic and geopolitical environment most relevant to the Fund and the ways the institution has adapted to date. It identifies the general factors that tend to inhibit adaptation in international institutions, and some of the specific factors that can facilitate adaptation in the case of the Fund. It concludes that the Fund should, indeed, be making even greater efforts to adapt, but that efforts in this regard should take account of the identified factors.
February 1, 1996
An Analysis of the Optimal Provision of Public Infrastructure: A Computational Model Using Mexican Data
Description: An intertemporal general equilibrium model is used to examine infrastructure effects on the Mexican national income. Production functions are estimated for the major sectors of the economy in which sectoral output depends on inputs of capital and labor, as well as the stocks of the public infrastructure. The analysis indicates that despite high estimated output elasticities with respect to public infrastructure, increased expenditure on infrastructure has rapidly decreasing benefits. Some benefits could be achieved by modest increases in capital expenditures, although at the cost of significantly higher inflation and real interest rates. The increase in real interest rates causes these benefits to be greatly reduced.
February 1, 1996
Banking Sector Fragility and Systemic Sources of Fragility
Description: A theoretical framework to assess the degree of fragility or, inversely, the soundness of the banking system is proposed. It is argued that, while a bank may be either solvent or insolvent at any given time, its degree of fragility must be a forward-looking measure based on the probability that it can withstand a destabilizing shock. Externalities are particularly important because they can constitute a serious source of systemic risk. The factors that determine banks’ soundness can be separated into bank-specific and those common to all banks (subject to microprudential and macroprudential considerations, respectively). The interconnection between banking crises and currency crises (in both directions) is also discussed.
February 1, 1996
Internal Currency Convertibility - Survey of Issues and Practice
Description: The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.
February 1, 1996
The Economic Content of Indicators of Developing Country Creditworthiness
Description: This paper analyzes the economic determinants of developing country creditworthiness indicators for over 60 developing countries for the period from 1980 to 1993. Our results indicate that economic fundamentals--the ratio of non-gold foreign exchange reserves to imports, the ratio of the current account balance to GDP, growth, and inflation explain a large amount of the variation in the credit ratings. All developing country ratings were adversely affected by an increase in international interest rates independently of the domestic economic fundamentals. A country’s regional location and the structure of its exports (such as whether it is primarily an exporter of fuel products or manufactured products) were also important.