Working Papers

April 1, 1996

Mexico'S Currency Risk Premia in 1992-1994: A Closer Look At the Interest Rate Differentials

Description: This paper studies the behavior of interest rate differentials in Mexico during the 1992-94 period. It shows that the currency risk premia is positively related to the share of peso denominated debt in total debt and that the magnitude of this effect is considerable. For every 1 percentage point increase in the ratio of peso denominated debt in total debt, the interest rate differential increases between 20 and 30 basis points. In light of this result, and to get a better measure of the expectation of a devaluation during the period, the observed interest rate differential is adjusted for the change in the composition of public debt. In contrast to the behavior of the interest rate differential, the adjusted measure remained at extremely high levels throughout 1994, signalling a low level of confidence in the announced currency band.

April 1, 1996

Rational Liquidity Crises in the Sovereign Debt Market: In Search of a Theory

Description: This paper studies under what circumstances creditworthy sovereign borrowers may be denied liquidity by rational creditors. It is shown that, when the creditor side of the market consists of many small investors there may be multiple rational expectations equilibria. In one equilibrium, creditors’ pessimistic expectations about the borrower’s creditworthiness become self-fulfilling, and the borrower experiences a liquidity crisis. Multiple equilibria can be avoided by marketing the loan appropriately or by developing a reputation for following good policies. Liquidity problems can also arise because of the temporary disruption of international bond markets due to events unrelated to the borrower’s circumstances. Policies responses are discussed.

Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 43, No. 3, September 1996.

April 1, 1996

A Destination VAT for CIS Trade

Description: In all of the new countries formed after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, other than the Baltics, the value-added taxes (VATs) adopted were “hybrid” VATs that treat CIS trade differently from trade with the rest of the world. This paper inquires whether this is appropriate. The paper concludes that it would be better if all CIS countries applied the destination principle to CIS trade as well as to trade with the rest of the world. The paper addresses the economic, administrative and revenue allocation considerations underlying this decision.

April 1, 1996

Fiscal Balance During Inflation, Disinflation, and Immigration: Policy Lessons

Description: The paper provides an overview of the role of the fiscal imbalances and the ensuing public debt in explaining major episodes in Israel’s recent economic developments. The main conclusions from the Israeli budgetary developments may have more general validity: (a) deficits lead to inflation and stopping inflation requires elimination of deficits; (b) a major effect of inflation is a large shift of the tax burden from capital to labor; and (c) shocks to labor supply, such as massive labor inflow through immigration, can be absorbed without worsening government finances, when the labor and the housing markets are sufficiently flexible.

Notes: Messrs. Razin and Sadka were visiting professors of economics at Tel Aviv University.

April 1, 1996

Working Paper Summaries (WP/95/62 - 95/146)

Description: The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.

Notes: Compilation of summaries of Working Papers released during July - December 1995.

April 1, 1996

Stabilization and Growth in Transition Economies: The Early Experience

Description: This paper analyzes the growth and stabilization experience in 26 transition economies in eastern Europe, the former Soviet Union, and Mongolia for the period 1989-1994. Inflation rates have declined significantly in most countries following an inflation stabilization program. Growth resumes after stabilization occurs, typically with a lag of about two years. Reducing inflation thus appears to be a precondition for growth. An econometric analysis of the short-run determinants of inflation and growth illustrates the key roles of fixed exchange rates, improved fiscal balances, and structural reforms in spurring growth and lowering inflation, and confirms that inflation stabilization programs have been beneficial for growth even after controlling for structural reforms.

April 1, 1996

Is MENA a Region? The Scope for Regional Integration

Description: The paper analyzes the scope and implications of greater economic integration in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). After reviewing whether MENA satisfies the defining characteristics of a region, it documents the low level of regional economic interaction. It argues that gains from greater regional interactions will depend primarily on implementing domestic reform and external policies that, in any case, are needed for the region to benefit from the broader process of globalization of the world economy. It also discusses measures aimed directly at facilitating regional interaction.

Notes: The paper analyzes the scope and implications of greater economic integration in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA).

April 1, 1996

Volatility and Predictability in National Stock Markets: How Do Emerging and Mature Markets Differ?

Description: This paper examines the evidence for the common assertion that the volatility of emerging stock markets has increased as a result of the liberalization of markets. A range of measures suggests that there has been no generalized increase in volatility in recent years; indeed, it appears that volatility may have tended to fall rather than rise on average. The paper also tests for the predictability of long-horizon returns in emerging markets. While there is evidence for positive autocorrelation in returns at horizons of one or two quarters, the autocorrelations appear to turn negative at horizons of a year or more. However, the magnitude of the apparent return reversals is not that much larger than reversals in some mature markets. One interpretation of the results would be that emerging markets have not consistently been subject to fads or bubbles, or at least no more so than in some industrial countries. In general, the liberalization and broadening of emerging markets should lead to a reduction in return volatility as risk is spread among a larger number of investors.

Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 43, No. 3, September 1996.

April 1, 1996

Real Exchange Rates and Commodity Prices

Description: This paper examines the relations between fluctuations in real exchange rates among the major currencies and fluctuations in real commodity prices. Increased exchange rate volatility calls for a better understanding of these relations. To the best of our knowledge, no systematic study of those effects has been performed on a wide range of commodities, although Sjaastad and Scacciavillani (1993) have done so for gold. We build on their approach and construct a supply and demand multi-country model, with world market clearing, which incorporates speculative and non-speculative demands for inventories and “static” and “rational” expectations. We estimate the model using several econometric methods on monthly data from January 1972 to January 1992 for 65 commodity prices. The paper finds that, for a small group of commodities, the dollar-denominated price is significantly influenced by the deutsche mark and the yen. The empirical results show that geographical proximity matters, and that supply and demand elasticities are important in determining the commodity price in world markets above and beyond the size of the share of those commodities in world trade.

March 1, 1996

Selected WTO Rules and Some Implications for Fund Policy Advice

Description: The paper surveys six WTO agreements selected on the basis of their potential relevance for Fund-supported programs, namely Customs Valuation, Subsidies, Safeguards, Antidumping, Trade-Related Investment Measures, and Trade in Services. It offers a critical reading of the rules, and highlights potential issues of concern for the Fund in its policy dialogue with member countries with selected country examples. As some rules have very different implications for various groupings of countries, the paper calls attention to policy consistency in the trade area of these countries, and points out some areas where implementation of the rules might pose problems.