Working Papers
1996
July 1, 1996
Generational Accounts, Aggregate Savings, and Intergenerational Distribution
Description: Are generational accounts informative about the effect of the budget on the intergenerational distribution of resources and on aggregate saving? First, the usefulness of generational accounts lives or dies with the strict life-cycle model of household consumption. Second, even if the life-cycle model holds, generational accounts ignore the intergenerational redistribution associated with the government’s provision of public goods and services and with intergenerational externalities. Third, generational accounting ignores the effect of the budget on tax and transfer bases and on before-tax incomes and prices. That is, it does not handle incidence or general equilibrium repercussions.
July 1, 1996
Pension Reform in Belgium
Description: This paper reviews the financial implications of aging for the pension system in Belgium during 1995-2050. Our simulations indicate a strong rise in pension expenditure over the next half century, as is the case in other industrialized countries. In Belgium, the problem is particularly acute in the pension system for civil servants. The impact of amending indexation of pension benefits and their ceilings, of harmonizing pension schemes for public and private sector employees, and of increasing the mandatory retirement age is discussed. We also calculate rates of return on the participation in the Belgian pension system and present some evidence on the intergenerational impact of the different reform options.
July 1, 1996
Equivalence of the Production and Consumption Methods of Calcuting the Value-Added Tax Base: Application in Zambia
Description: Two methods of calculating the value-added tax (VAT) base, using production and consumption data, respectively, have been applied in different countries to estimate VAT revenue. It is not apparent that these methods should produce the same result for a particular country because each method requires different adjustments for exemptions. This paper establishes analytically the equivalence of the two methods. Both methods are applied to Zambia. Given the limitations of data, the two methods produce different results, yielding an estimated range for VAT revenue of 2-3 percent of GDP in 1995. Actual VAT revenue collected fell within this range.
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1996
June 1, 1996
Inflation Targeting: Theory and Policy Implications
Description: As with many monetary policy frameworks, inflation targeting is subject to the well-known problem of inflation bias. With inflation targeting, however, the bias becomes apparent not as inflation above desired levels, but as a wedge between the announced target and observed inflation. This inconsistency could render the framework neither credible nor enforceable since the target is overshot on average. The problem can be addressed by assigning price stability as the single policy objective or by assigning a joint target for both inflation and output, provided that they are consistent. Many inflation targeting countries take the joint target approach implicitly through transparency measures which publicly assess monetary conditions in terms of potential output and output gaps.
June 1, 1996
Fiscal Transition in Countries of the Former Soviet Union: An Interim Assessment
Description: This paper reviews the uneven record of fiscal performance in the states of the former Soviet Union since independence. Deficits have come down rapidly, an important contribution to stabilization. Given, however, the unexpectedly severe revenue decline and limited financing, the stabilization was reached by sharp cuts in expenditure. The cuts were abrupt and not focused on transition goals, and the instruments used vitiated normal budgetary processes. Hence, benchmarks of fiscal success other than stabilization are elusive. Government intervention and subsidies remain important, social spending is inefficient, and there is little evidence in the budget of restructuring.
June 1, 1996
Fiscal Rules and the Budget Process
Description: This paper examines the rationale for the imposition of fiscal rules as a way to reduce budgetary imbalances. It presents theoretical arguments for the existence of a “fiscal deficit bias” and the empirical evidence on the economic, political and institutional factors leading to this bias. In the context of these findings, it discusses the potential role of legal constraints on the level of key fiscal variables, and of reforms in budgetary procedures in enhancing fiscal discipline. It also evaluates proposals for budgetary reform in Italy.